A wonderful world, Palestinians excluded

The two Koreas will unite; the Iranians will undergo another revolution, and may be weaned off their nuclear aspirations sooner rather than later; the Kurds in Iraq will win independence; Europe will strengthen, as will the rising economies of Latin America and Asia; a railway network will join London to Singapore, and will be one of the growth accelerators in Central Asia; advanced wireless banking and telecommunications systems will, in the next five years, also put countries in Africa on the map, among them Sudan, Angola, Mozambique, and Tanzania, and for them, this period will see the start of a huge success story.
These fantastic-sounding predictions come from Parag Khanna, director of the Global Governance Initiative at the New America Foundation. Despite his youth (he is 33) Khanna managed to serve as an adviser to US President Barack Obama's election campaign, and in past few years he has published two best-sellers on the "world to come" that is already taking shape.

Khanna, one of the world's leading commentators in international relations, will take part in the 2010 "Globes" Israel Business Conference in Tel Aviv next month, alongside "Financial Times" senior economics commentator Martin Wolf, Bank Leumi chairman David Brodet, and former Governor of the Bank of Israel, now chairman of JPMorgan Chase International, Jacob Frenkel. Khanna will outline this other world, and will attempt to identify the new forces growing from within it. These changes are, according to him, within reach. He believes that, within five years, everyone will perceive them, and even feel them in his or her pocket.

The big news to come out of the analyses by this young man, who has already managed to visit more than 100 countries, is of a revolution in Iran. "The next Iranian revolution is very close," he estimates, in an interview with "Globes". "The interests of the religious and secular forces, and of Iran's young population, will lead to it. There are many tremors beneath the surface that will lead to a change in power. I don't know what will come instead of the current situation, but it's clear that there will be another power there."

In whatever power constellation that forms in Iran, what are the chances that it will succeed in attaining military nuclear capability?

"I don't know whether Iran will pass the point of no return. There's a 50% chance that the West will succeed in preventing this, although it's not clear whether it will happen via diplomacy or a military attack. Looking five years ahead, it's hard to know exactly what will happen there, but I have a feeling that we will manage to stop them."

With or without a nuclear bomb, by 2015 Khanna sees the Gulf Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Iran, disturbed by the rising phenomenon of piracy in Gulf waters. The threat will become a monster that will leave those countries with no choice but to act jointly against it. "The Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and one or two other countries in the Middle East, will organize to operate joint sea patrols against the pirates," he predicts.

Khanna was born in Kanpur, Uttar Pradesh, India. He began his world travels as a child, with his father, who was a banker. He attributes his ability to analyze complicated geo-political situations to the periods of his childhood that were divided between Abu Dhabi, London, and New York. "Apart from that, I had a regular Indian childhood," he says. In his travels over the past fifteen years he visited Israel, and even devoted a chapter to Israel in his book "The Second World: Empires and Influence in the New Global Order", which became an international best seller. "Israel is a superb story," he says categorically. "The country is very smart at spotting venture opportunities in environment, IT, and technology."

For someone who once advised Obama and still maintains ties with the president's advisers in the White House, Khanna is unsparing in his criticism of him.

The speech Obama made in Cairo at the beginning of his term raised eyebrows in many quarters in the West.

"The aspiration to conduct dialogue instead of violence is correct. But at the level of action, it's too early to judge the president, because nothing has yet been done in this area. In his Cairo speech, he was clear about his intentions, but is anyone advancing these goals? Has there been any change whatever in US policy? Do mere words about democracy really change anything and lead to democracy? I am highly critical of Obama."

As a former adviser, do you meet him?

"I don’t see him, and so I don't express my criticism directly. However, I have friends in the administration, and so I don’t have to go to the White House to get messages across to him. Among the Americans, I'm known as a pessimist, but my positions don't make me a pessimist, but a realist."

Khanna sees the US remaining an empire and a leading power in the coming years, but it won't be the only one. "I see other powers arising. The US will still be an empire, but it will not be the sole, dominant power in the world. Alongside it there will be great powers such as China and the European block.

"I am certain of the ability of Europe to adapt itself to the structure of the 21st century. It is learning from the past, and, after the global crisis, its countries realize that there is no alternative to bolstering the European Central Bank, and the European economy with it. In addition to economic power, this will also give Europe great political power. France and Britain will unite their military forces, the euro will strengthen, and more countries will want to join the European Union, and so Europe will be even more successful."

Khanna also has a comprehensive theory about the global economic crisis. He believes that individual countries have the capability of extricating themselves from it, and claims that the G20 is not effective: "Each country should take its opportunity, and join forces with other countries. It would be best if they all found a common policy, and that's possible. I'm not completely optimistic on this issue, but I think there is a stable solution that can rescue the crisis countries. "

Good news for the Koreans, not for the Palestinians

In Khanna's new world order, the there is also joy for the Kurds, who within a matter of years will get their own state; North Korea and South Korea will be united within a decade at the most, because they will get tired of mutual hostility. Possibly, international intervention, perhaps by China, will lead the two countries to flourishing unification along the lines of Germany.

And what about the conflict of most interest to us? Even Khanna doesn't know what will become of the State of Palestine: "Many people think that within five years there will be a Palestinian state, but who will run it, and how will it look? Will the Gaza Strip and the West Bank be united? The problem of the US and Israel is that they behave towards the Palestinians as if they have a state, but they must first have a state, and only then can they be presented with the kind of expectations that can only be fulfilled by a state."