Six days after Prime Minister Ariel Sharon was hospitalized, support for Kadima is growing, according to a Globes-Smith survey conducted by Smith Institute, headed by Rafi and Hanoch Smith. The survey shows Kadima increasing its strength to 40-41 Knesset seats. The survey found that while most of the public realizes that Sharon will not return to political life, this has not affected support for the party Sharon founded.
The previous survey held a week ago showed Kadima winning 38-39 Knesset seats. Despite assessments that Sharon’s hospitalization would affect Kadima, this has not yet happened. The opposite is true.
The Globes-Smith survey also showed the Labor Party is continuing to lose support. This week’s survey indicated that Labor would win 16-17 Knesset seats, down from 18-19 seats a week ago. The Likud has meanwhile stabilized at 15 Knesset seats, compared with 14-15 in last week’s survey.
Shinui is also losing support, and is close to the legally mandated 2% minimum vote threshold needed to win any Knesset seats. The survey sees the party winning three Knesset seats; the 2% threshold is estimated to equal three Knesset seats.
Shas is stable at around ten Knesset seats, the National Union will win 4-5 seats, the National Religious Party will win 3-4 seats, and Israel Beiteinu will win six seats. As expected, United Torah Judaism is stable at six seats. The Arab parties are also stable at 8-9 seats. Meretz is unable to gain traction, remaining stuck at four Knesset seats since the decision to hold early elections.
The survey found that 16% of the public is still undecided.
In response to a question whether Ehud Olmert was suitable or not to serve as Israel’s next prime minister, 57% of respondents said he was suitable. A breakdown of responses showed that 82% of Kadima supporters believe that Olmert is suitable to be prime minister, but only 41% of Likud supporters thought this.
The survey also examined the public’s opinion about who should be the number 2 person in Kadima. 36% of respondents said MK Shimon Peres, 35% said Minister of Justice Tzippi Livni, and only 18% said Minister of Defense Shaul Mofaz.
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes.co.il - on January 10, 2006