The Israel Consumer Confidence Index fell by 4.3 points in November 2009 to 94 points (baseline 100 = 1996) after rising by 4.7 points in October, and falling by 3.2 points in September. In trend figures, the index fell by 0.9 points in November to 95.3 points, the first dip since March.
The U-turn in the Consumer Confidence Index in November reflected consumers' worries about the current state of the economy. There was also a slight drop in expectations about the macro and microeconomic situation six months from now.
Consumers appear to be more worried by the global situation rather than domestic developments, which actually indicated an improvement in the economy. Three-month moving trend figures also fell in November, after rising for five consecutive months. Despite the dip, the Consumer Confidence Index is still close to a ten-year high.
International developments, particularly rising unemployment in the US and worry that the recession is Europe is dragging on, may have affected the Israel Consumer Confidence Index. The public gave these factors greater weight than positive figures about the Israeli economy, including the rise in the Bank of Israel's Composite State of the Economy Index, and Central Bureau of Statistics figures, which showed that GDP rose by an annualized 2.2% during the third quarter. It is only possible to assume that the public believes that if the economic crisis again emerges overseas, this will have an immediate and huge impact on Israel.
Despite the drop in the Consumer Confidence Index in November, the rise in the index during the preceding months suggest that private consumption will rise during the first quarter of 2010. Private consumption per capita rose by an annualized 6.9% during the third quarter, after rising by an annualized 6.4% during the second quarter.
The Consumer Confidence Index is compiled by Globes Research and Kesselman and Kesselman - PricewaterhouseCoopers Israel.
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on December 2, 2009
© Copyright of Globes Publisher Itonut (1983) Ltd. 2009