Morgan Stanley says that Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. (Nasdaq: TEVA; TASE: TEVA) will miss fourth quarter estimates, because of a less robust recovery in the US generic drugs market.
Morgan Stanley analyst David Risinger has lowered his fourth quarter revenue estimate by 4.5% to $5.3 billion from $5.5 billion, and cut his earnings per share estimate for Teva by 7.6% to $1.57 from $1.75. He does not expect Teva to partner with India's Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd. (BSE: 500359) on the launch of generic Lipitor, and he is unsure when Teva will launch its generic version of Lovenox.
Risinger says that Ranbaxy will not need Teva as a manufacturer when it launches generic Lipitor in November, and he expects Teva to launch its generic version of the drug in mid-2012, when Ranbaxy's 180-exclusivity period expires. In the wake of Amphastar Pharmaceutical Inc's launch of generic Lovenox earlier this month, he says he does not know what Teva's management assumes for its own launch of the drug.
The new earnings per share estimate is 7% less than Teva's implied guidance of $1.69, and 6.5% less than the analysts' consensus of $1.68. The new estimate still reflects 26% growth over the fourth quarter of 2010, driven by Teva's launch of generic Zyprexa in the US.
Morgan Stanley's full-year earnings per share estimate of $4.92 is 3% less than the Teva's midpoint guidance and $5.05, which is also the market consensus.
Morgan Stanley also cut 2012-2015 earnings per share estimates by a few percent. The 2012 estimate is $5.67 earnings per share (including $0.23 from the acquisition of Cephalon Inc. (Nasdaq: CEPH), 1.6% above the $5.58 midpoint of Teva's guidance of $5.30-5.86. The revenue forecast is $23.43 billion in 2012.
Teva's share price rose 0.6% on Nasdaq yesterday to $35.46, giving a market cap of $33.3 billion, but fell 0.6% by early afternoon on the TASE today to NIS 133.
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on September 27, 2011
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