"Turkey doesn't want war with Cyprus or Israel"

"Wall Street Journal": Analysts fear Turkey may find it hard to back down, and the US could be dragged into any conflict.

"Wall Street Journal" quotes Turkish officials as saying that Turkey is not seeking a war with either Cyprus or Israel, but that Turkey has been forced to take action to guard against provocative steps by others. "Look, nobody wants any disasters here. We are aware of the situation," said a senior Turkish official.

The paper also quotes former US ambassador to Turkey Morton Abramowitz as saying, "I don't think the Turks are intent on starting hostilities, but you never know what can happen in this environment. He added that Washington needs to be up-front with Ankara and tell them that if conflict breaks out between Turkey and Israel, "We'll choose Israel."

According to the "Wall Street Journal", Secretary of State Hillary Clinton privately has pressed Turkish officials to back off from their threats to send warships to waters around Cyprus in a dispute over energy deposits, according to US officials. She cautioned that any escalation could jeopardize US interests in the Mediterranean, as the gas fields are being jointly developed by Cyprus and Houston-based Noble Energy Inc. (NYSE: NBL).

US officials also are concerned by Turkish threats to deploy naval vessels to accompany flotillas headed to the Palestinian territories, which could heighten the potential for a military conflict between Turkey and Israel, both close US allies. American diplomats have worked to broker a rapprochement between Turkey and Israel, but officials in the White House and State Department acknowledge the rift could endure.

Some strategists in Washington and Europe are calling on the Obama administration to lay down stricter red lines in the Mediterranean, by using more aggressive diplomacy and the US Navy. This is seen as crucial for guarding against any miscalculations by Turkey, Israel or Cyprus, though they acknowledge such steps could anger Ankara.

Continuing tensions between Turkey and Israel are also undercutting US efforts to stabilize the Middle East. Once close allies, Turkey and Israel have been locked in a growing war of words in the wake of Israel's military action last year against an international aid flotilla headed for the Gaza Strip. The operation killed eight Turkish nationals and one Turkish-American.

For months, the Obama administration has worked to ease tensions between Israel and Turkey. But the process broke down after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government refused to apologize to Ankara for the flotilla deaths. Turkey cut military ties with Israel and downgraded diplomatic relations, saying it would use its navy to protect future aid flotillas headed toward Gaza.

On Friday, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davatoglu reiterated that threat, but specified that it applied to Turkish vessels in international waters.

Some Turkey analysts believe that Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is bluffing. But there are increasing fears that the Turkish leader, now among the most popular in the Muslim world, could have staked a position that will be hard to back away from. And they note that Washington would be likely be dragged into any conflict.

Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on October 9, 2011

© Copyright of Globes Publisher Itonut (1983) Ltd. 2011

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