A political party headed by Minister of Communications Moshe Kahlon and former Kadima leader Tzipi Livni, would win only three seats less than Likud-Beytenu, according to a survey by the Rafi Smith research institute commissioned by associates of Kahlon. If Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu thought that a joint list with Minister of Foreign Affairs Avigdor Liberman relieved him of his worries, the thought of a Kahlon-Livni pairing is enough to give him a new and severe headache. While Kahlon and Livni win 27 Knesset seats, Netanyahu and Liberman win just 30, compared with 42 predicted for them earlier.
The Rafi Smith survey also finds that the public would prefer Kahlon to Livni at the head of a new grouping. Sources close to them both believe that Livni would agree to be number two to Kahlon, who will receive the results of a further poll tomorrow before making a final decision.
A Kahlon, Livni & Co. party would reduce Labor to around 13 seats, and send both Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid and Shas under Aryeh Deri sliding to fewer than ten seats each.
It seems that social policy has explosive potential in the forthcoming election. A candidate with a North African background who enjoys a socially aware image and puts social policy at the top of the election agenda takes seats from everyone. He hits the right, the left, haredim (ultra-Orthodox), anti-haredim, absolutely everyone.
Netanyahu's worries don't end there. On the contrary, this is just the beginning. A new socially oriented party under Kahlon would be liable to undermine Netanyahu's ability to form a coalition. The communications minister, who was a friend until a few months ago, becomes at once a rival and he holder of the balance of power.
Kahlon will be the one able to determine the character of the coalition. The chances of forming one without him would be slim. He will be the first in, and he will determine who comes next.
If he joins a Netanyahu-Liberman government, the two lists will have 55 seats between them. It would be enough to bring in Shas, and the work of forming a coalition would be done. It will be possible to buy other parties at end-of-season prices. And Kahlon? He will be minister of finance, exactly as he wanted.
Netanyahu's nightmare will be even worse if Kahlon recommends the president to choose Shelly Yachimovich as prime minister. If they make a rotation agreement, Netanyahu could be left out of the game.
The really interesting point is not the results of the survey, but the fact that Kahlon commissioned it. It seems that the Likud-Yisrael Beytenu alliance changed Kahlon's plans. Only a few weeks ago, he declared his intention of taking time out from political life, with the next but one election his probable reentry point for taking over Likud. Liberman's return to the Likud ranks, however, threatened this possibility, and Kahlon decided to examine his options for the current election campaign.
Kahlon will have to make up his mind fast. You can't have it both ways in politics. The public wants someone clear and decisive, not stammering and dithering.
The prime minister, who is on an official visit to Paris, responded to the reports of Kahlon's moves by saying, "Moshe Kahlon was and will remain part of Likud".
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on October 31, 2012
© Copyright of Globes Publisher Itonut (1983) Ltd. 2012