Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. (NYSE: TEVA; TASE: TEVA) has provided two different guidance scenarios for 2014, depending on whether generic versions of its flagship treatment for multiple sclerosis, Copaxone, enter the US market, or not.
Under the "Generic Copaxone" scenario, which assumes the launch of at least two AP-rated generic competitors to Copaxone in the US on June 1, 2014, Teva forecasts an operating profit of $4.8-5.1 billion and earnings per share of $4.50-4.80 on $19.3-20.3 billion revenue. Under the "Exclusive Copaxone" scenario, which assumes no generic competition to Copaxone in the U.S. during 2014, Teva forecasts an operating profit of $5.35-5.65 billion and earnings per share of $4.80-5.10 on $19.8-20.8 billion revenue. It estimates that each month of delay in the launch of generic competitors to Copaxone in the US will contribute $78 million to net revenues and $0.08 to non-GAAP diluted earnings per share.
The analysts' consensus for 2014 is $4.94 earnings per share on $20 billion revenue. The consensus for 2013 is $4.99 earnings per share on $20 billion revenue.
Teva forecasts $3.1-3.2 billion revenue from Copaxone in 2014, under the "Generic Copaxone" scenario, and $3.6-3.7 billion revenue under the "Exclusive Copaxone" scenario. It also forecasts $750 million revenue from Treanda, $510 million revenue from ProAir, $390 million revenue from Azilect for the treatment of Parkinson's disease, $380 million from Qvar, and $350 million from Nuvigil. It adds that half of its "other revenue" forecast, or $1-1.1 billion, is from PGT Healthcare, the joint venture with Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG).
Under the "Generic Copaxone" scenario, Teva forecasts $9.8-10.5 billion revenue from generics and active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) in 2014, $7.3-7.7 billion revenue from specialty products, and $2-2.2 billion revenue from over-the-counter drugs and other products. Under the "Exclusive Copaxone" scenario, it forecasts $7.8-8.2 billion revenue from specialty products, with the other two items the same as in the "Generic Copaxone" scenario.
In the breakdown by region, under the "Generic Copaxone" scenario, Teva forecasts $9.5-9.9 billion revenue in the US, $5.7-6.2 billion revenue in Europe, and $3.8-4.2 billion revenue in the rest of the world. Under the "Exclusive Copaxone" scenario, it forecasts $10-10.4 billion revenue in the US, with the other areas the same as in the "Generic Copaxone" scenario.
"2014 will be a pivotal year for Teva and a year of major transitions across the company", said Teva acting CEO Eyal Desheh. "We will continue to make significant progress in implementing our strategy. We will focus our efforts on our generics business and core R&D programs, including high-value complex generics, promising specialty medicines and New Therapeutic Entities. In our specialty business, we anticipate six important launches and the potential submission of ten additional medicines for approval. At the same time, we are focused on increasing our organizational effectiveness through our cost reduction program to ensure Teva’s leadership position, growth and sustainable profitability.”
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on December 10, 2013
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