US investor relations firm Cameron Associates published a very bullish report on Israeli medical device company Brainsway Ltd. (TASE:BRIN) last week. To give the bottom line first, Cameron estimates that, on the basis of the low price/revenue multiple at which Brainsway is traded in relation to its worldwide competitors, and on the assumption of just 1% penetration of the global market for the depression indication alone, the company's share price should be around $45 (NIS 157.5 at NIS 3.5/$), which represents a premium of 333% on the current price.
Cameron says that in the US market, "the 10%-20% of patients that are non-or-poor responders to drug therapy is estimated at $36 billion per year." Such patients could be referred to Brainsway's deep TMS (transcranial magnetic stimulation) treatment. According to Cameron, "Brainsway's depression clinical data trumps those of competing surface TMS, with response rate of 38.4% versus 22.1% and remission rate of 32.6% versus 9%, respectively."
"A 1% penetration of the US depression market alone yields potential revenue of $130 million," Cameron estimates, "without considering OUS and opportunities from over twenty other indications, including eight with CE Mark approvals." Among these indications, Cameron mentions smoking cessation, chronic neuropathic pain, post traumatic stress disorder, Parkinson's Disease, Alzheimer's Disease, schizophrenianegative symptoms, autism, and bipolar disorder.
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on December 16, 2013
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