A strategic plan published this week by Israel’s Ministry of Interior Planning Administration includes a chapter that maps the dangers posed by global warming.
According to the survey, construction in the Tel Aviv district is greatly contributing to the rise in temperatures. The sea in Haifa Bay may flood deep into the Kishon basin, while in the Arava and Golan Heights regions, temperatures will rise considerably, and in the Upper Galilee rainfall will be reduced to such an extent that it will require a change in the type of crops cultivated.
The Planning Administration does not offer any operative solutions or instructions and for the time being nothing will change in the outline plans, but they state that the old planning methods cannot be maintained in the coming years and planning authorities must take into account the existence of changing climatic and environmental factors, and shape planning accordingly. For example, designing strategies for construction adapted to a desert climate, preserving mature trees and planting more trees, changing cultivation and crops, and more.
Not just a theoretical scenario
The strategic plan for Israel in 2050 includes dividing up the country into 28 self-sufficient regions. The aim of the plan is to change the face of the country by promoting quality planning, which will meet the changing needs and characteristics of the economy and the population, among other things by providing a planning response to climate change.
This is no longer a theoretical scenario, the report warns. For those who remember the Ayalon floods in the winter of 1991-2 and 2013, and the devastation that storms and waves caused businesses in Tel Aviv port in 2010 - the chances of such events recurring will increase in the coming years, due to the rise in sea level rise and extreme rainstorms that will increase the risk of flooding in low-lying areas, in Tel Aviv especially adjacent to the Ayalon and Yarkon rivers. All of this together with a significant rise in temperatures by about three degrees centigrade on average in the Tel Aviv area. Part of that increase can be attributed to heat resulting from the dense urban construction in and around Tel Aviv.
To the east of Tel Aviv in the Rosh Ha’ayin-Petah Tikva region and Ono Valley, there will also be higher temperatures due to dense urban construction, and the risk of flooding from the Yarkon and nearby tributaries.
The winter of 1991-2 is also well remembered by the residents of Haifa Bay and the Kraiot when the River Kishon and its tributary the River Gadora, which flows through Kiryat Bialik, burst their banks, bringing large floods paralyzing the roads and railways.
Chances of a repeat of this event will increase in the coming years, not only because of more extreme rain, but also because of the rise in the sea water level, which in certain scenarios could flood a significant strip along the Kishon basin.
100,000 housing units
One of the biggest plans in Israel called the "Bay Gateway" (TAMA 75) is supposed to develop the Kishon region near the Bazan Oil Refineries plant, with the building of a large city with more than 100,000 housing units, after the petrochemicals industry is removed from Haifa Bay. This plan must take into account the many climatic perils endangering the area. The Planning Administration also recommends taking into account the route of the Naaman River, which crosses Haifa Bay north of Kiryat Bialik and flows into the sea near Akko.
The western part of the Ashkelon-Kiryat Gat region will also suffer from the rise in sea level and extreme bouts of rain. But a different kind of danger is also expected by desertification procedures, with an extreme decrease in rainfall accompanied by a significant rise in temperatures.
Extreme rain storms will also cause flooding in the Hadera and northern Sharon regions, especially along the upper reaches of the Hadera and Taninim streams, while in the Netanya area the greatest concern is the potential collapse of the coastal cliff, which has already collapsed in several places in the past. But with the rise of the sea level, the likelihood of a more severe repeat of this scenario increases significantly. The Planning Administration is also concerned about flooding along the River Alexander between Netanya and Hadera.
Similarly, the Herzliya-Ra'anana and Kfar Saba areas are also in danger of the collapse of the coastal cliff, and the flooding of tributaries that flow into the River Yarkon.
The greatest risks in the Tiberias region are mainly high seismic sensitivity and extreme heat in the summer, which is expected to increase over time, while the Karmiel region is expected to be hit by floods along the Beit Netofa Valley. In Beersheva, desertification may harm farmland and forest including the Yatir forest.
Published by Globes, Israel business news - en.globes.co.il - on July 30, 2024.
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