March 28 - Getting Closer
Fifty days remain to the general elections, plenty of time for changes to still emerge. Yet, for the time being, the picture emerging is that support for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is weakening, and Labor leader Ehud Barak is gradually strengthening his stature
A "Ma'ariv" poll taken in Beersheva on March 24, places Netanyahu ahead of Barak, but with a smaller lead than in the 1996 elections. Beersheva is known traditionally as a Likud town. Other towns traditionally identified with the Likud report the same trend.
The initial enthusiasm that greeted Center candidate Yitzhak Mordechai has not gathered momentum as the party hoped. Weekend polls showed him slipping slightly.
Benny Begin is still trailing far behind the other three candidates.
Published by Israel's Business Arena March 28, 1999
March 21 - Deri Verdict Seen as Fair
Polls published on Friday found that the public backed the Jerusalem District Court in its guilty verdict on Shas leader Arieh Deri. The "Ma'ariv"/Gallup poll reported 65% saying Deri received a fair trial, and 69% rejecting the idea that the authorities had persecuted him because of his ethnic background. The "Yediot Aharonot"/Dahaf/Mina Tzemah poll reported 79% rejecting the suggestion of ethnic discrimination.
However, "Ma'ariv" found that 52% of respondents believed the verdict would strengthen Shas in the elections, and 42% felt the reaction of Deri's supporters to the trial threatened the rule of law (51% felt it didn’t).
This turns into good news for Ehud Barak. Not only did 27% of respondents say the State Comptroller’s report on the Tze’elim disaster made their opinion of Barak more positive, as opposed to 13% who said it put him in a more negative light, but 45% said Barak would preserve the rule of law in Israel better than Netanyahu, while only 33% thought Netanyahu superior to Barak in this respect.
The "Ma'ariv" polls prediction for the first round of the prime ministerial election was: Netanyahu 36%; Barak 36%; Mordechai 16%; and Begin 6%.
In the second round, "Ma'ariv" has Barak beating Netanyahu 47% to 44%, and Mordechai beating him 52% to 41%.
After gaining on both challengers in the corresponding poll last week, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is now more or less back to the position he was in three weeks ago, 3% behind Barak (well within sampling error) and 11% behind Mordechai.
Published by Israel's Business Arena on March 21, 1999
March 14 - Contradictory Trends
The latest polls show opposite trends. The "Ma'ariv"/Gallup poll published on Friday showed the following first round prime ministerial election result: Netanyahu 33%; Barak 34%; Mordechai 16%; Benny Begin 8%. These figures are much the same as in the corresponding poll two weeks previously.
However, for the second round, "Ma'ariv"/Gallup show Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu improving against both his main challengers. According to the poll, if Netanyahu faces Barak, the result will be even at 43% each, compared with a 47% to 44% result in Barak’s favor two weeks previously. Against Mordechai, Netanyahu has narrowed the latter’s lead from 13% to 5%, the current result being 46% Mordechai, 41% Netanyahu.
The poll also shows that, if either Barak or Mordechai were to drop out, the other would beat Netanyahu in the first round.
However, Friday’s "Yediot Aharonot"/Dahaf poll shows Ehud Barak drawing steadily ahead of Netanyahu in the second round. It predicts similar first round results to those in the "Ma'ariv"/Gallup poll: Netanyahu 33%; Barak 31%; Mordechai 18%; Begin 4%. For the second round, it shows Barak ahead 46% to 41%, a 5% lead for Barak, compared with a 1% lead the previous week, and a 3% deficit two weeks before that.
"Yediot Aharonot"/Dahaf also shows Mordechai increasing his second round lead, from 11% last week to 13% (50% to 37%) now.
Published by Israel's Business Arena on March 14, 1999
March 7 - "Yediot" Shows Barak Pulling Ahead
The weekend's crop of opinion polls concentrated on the Lebanon issue.
A "Ma'ariv"/Gallup poll found that 31% of respondents approved of a unilateral Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon without an a agreement with the Lebanese or Syrian governments. 61% opposed such a move. In a Mina Zemah/Dahaf poll published in "Yediot Aharonot", the figures were 36% in favor and 58% against.
In the latter poll, 30% said they thought a Likud government would deal better with the Lebanon problem, while 37% said they thought a Labor government would do better in this respect.
In the "Ma'ariv"/Gallup poll, 62% said they thought Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s declaration of "a new policy" in Lebanon was an election exercise. 59% said the same of Ehud Barak’s promise to pull out of Lebanon within a year of being elected.
The Mina Zemah/Dahaf poll found the following results for the first round of the prime ministerial election: Benjamin Netanyahu 35%; Ehud Barak 30%; Yitzhak Mordechai 19%; Benny Begin 5%; won’t vote 11%. In comparison with a similar poll published two weeks ago, Netanyahu has lost 2%, Barak’s vote is steady, and Mordechai has lost 1%.
For the second round, the poll predicts that Barak would defeat Netanyahu by 45% to 44%, and Mordechai beating him by 49% to 38%.
In comparison with the same poll two weeks ago, Mordechai has widened his margin of victory from 7% to 11%, while Barak has made up a 3% deficit in establishing his 1% lead. In other words, the trend shows Netanyahu losing 4% of his vote against both candidates in two weeks.
It should be noted however that this change is within the reported sampling error of 4.4%.
Published by Israel's Business Arena on March 7, 1999
February 28 - One Israel a Vote Loser
Will the "One Israel" exercise pay off for Barak? Not according to a Gallup/"Ma'ariv" poll published
on February 26. 25% of respondents said that Labor joining forces with other parties would make it more likely that they would vote for Barak as prime minister - but 27% said it would actually make it less likely. Similarly, 24% said the move would increase the chances of them voting Labor, while 29% said it would make this less likely.
The Gallup/"Ma'ariv" poll showed the first round prime ministerial election result as follows: Netanyahu 33%; Barak 35%; Mordechai 18%; Begin 6%; Don’t know 8%. Since the corresponding poll last week, Netanyahu’s vote has gone down 6%, Mordechai, up 4%, being the main beneficiary.
In the second round, the poll has Barak beating Netanyahu by 47% to 43%, and Mordechai beating him by 52% to 39%. Barak’s advantage is about the same as last week; Mordechai’s has widened from 8% to 13%.
The poll also showed that voters see economic and social issues as the most important matters in these elections. However, a Mina Zemah/Dahaf poll among unemployed people, published in "Yediot Aharonot" on Friday, showed Barak and Netanyahu scoring even in a second round vote, and Mordechai just 2% ahead of the Prime Minister.
February 21 - Mordechai Second Round Winner, but Won't Make it That Far
At the weekend, the Gallup/"Ma'ariv" poll showed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with 39% of the vote in the first round of the prime ministerial election, Ehud Barak with 36%, Yitzhak Mordechai with 14%, and Benny Begin on 4%.
The Dahaf poll in "Yediot Aharonot" showed Netanyahu on 37%, Barak on 30%, Mordechai 20%, and Begin 4%.
"Ma'ariv" showed Barak beating Netanyahu by 47% to 44% in the second round, and Mordechai beating him 50% to 42%.
"Yediot Aharonot" on the other hand, showed Netanyahu ahead of Barak by 47% to 44%, but Mordechai defeating Netanyahu by 48% to 41%.