The signing of the Hebron accord between Israel and the Palestinian Authority was welcomed with a sigh of relief by circles connected with regional co-operation, in both Israel, the Arab world and Washington. The ripples of satisfaction also spread rapidly to the Far East and Europe where, in the past six months, states have found difficulty in promoting co-operation with Israel due to the deadlocked political process. Domestic private and governmental sectors now expect a gradual thaw of economic and business relations with Israel, even if beset with hesitancy and suspicion.
The crisis of confidence between the Arab world and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which has become a fact of life in recent months, has left such deep scars in Arab capitals as to hinder any thrust toward economic and political normalisation between the parties. To both the Arab world and the international arena, the Hebron issue represents a touchstone as to the direction in which the Israeli government is headed as regards the political process. And the signing of the agreement is undoubtedly perceived as a positive signal. But considering how increasingly sour Arab disappointment with Netanyahu has become, since he first came to power, this agreement will not, of itself, automatically revive the pre-election vision of the New Middle East.
In recent months, the Arab world, having extended Netanyahu’s government a period of grace, has felt deceived and betrayed; and its attitude towards normalisation with Israel has accordingly hardened. When Netanyahu’s government first took office, the Syrians had uphill work persuading the other Arab states to render normalisation contingent on progress in the political process. But in the past month, it was a walk-over.
When the foreign ministers of Egypt, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates convened two weeks ago, their summarising communiquי contained full support for the most radical positions presented by Syria and the Palestinians in the peace talks. Thus the Gulf states support a withdrawal to the borders of June 4, 1967 on the Golan Heights, and a full withdrawal from South Lebanon, the Rift Valley and "the occupied Palestinian Territories including Arab Jerusalem", in addition to supporting an independent Palestinian state. This is what the eight states’ foreign ministers are now calling "getting the peace process back onto its proper track".
The ministers, to be sure, did not expressly render normalisation with Israel contingent on the fulfilment of these demands. They did, however, recall the June 1996 Arab Summit resolution, establishing an affinity between normalisation and the progression of the peace process. Thus a possible condition for normalisation between Israel and the Arab states may from now on be not just the implementation of the Hebron accord, but also progress in the peace talks with the Palestinians on the permanent arrangement and with the Syrians on the peace accord.
Syria will exert pressure in that direction, and so will Egypt. Whether or not the Gulf states will knuckle under to these pressures will also depend, starting today, on what exertions Israel’s private and governmental sectors make, in an effort to change that scenario. While quite prepared to present a hard propaganda line regarding economic and political normalisation with Israel, and despite the crisis of confidence, the states of the region have not entirely severed ties with Israel.
The momentum supplied by the Hebron agreement secures only a very limited space of time in which to renew normalisation efforts. New tensions will soon arise, triggered by actions on the part of those who oppose the agreement, and in anticipation of further talks with Syria and the Palestinians. The government must campaign intensively to re-establish frayed connections, such as bringing an Omani representative back to Israel, opening up a Qatari representation and securing an official invitation for some Israeli official such as Foreign Minister David Levy to visit Morocco, which has boycotted Israel since the elections.
Businessmen have a no less important role to play in maximising the momentum. Those who spoke so eloquently in recent years of their role in preserving and promoting the peace process must press their counterparts in the Arab private sector to resume co-operation. They must get quickly back into the vanguard of the process, if that is too difficult for the government echelon.
A first step in that direction was taken yesterday when a group of Israeli businessmen, including Dov Lautman, Shmuel Dankner, Dan Propper and Danny Gillerman, met with their Jordanian counterparts, and the meeting resolved to renew the joint venture momentum. Jordan will evidently set the example by forging ahead of the other states.