Israel's shift of power from the Likud to Labour’s successor, One Israel, happened because of a protest vote against Benjamin Netanyahu, mainly due to his personality and style, rather than because of love of Ehud Barak. Barak’s 12% advantage over Netanyahu is impressive and significant, but a mere 6% of voters upset the even balance of 1996 between Netanyahu and Shimon Peres.
The six percent consisted of disappointed Likud voters, whose party Netanyahu shredded to bits, new immigrants who hold Netanyahu responsible for the difficult economic situation and new voters avenging the assassination of Yitzhak Rabin. There was a great deal of spontaneity and symbolism in the convergence of tens of thousands of people on the square where Rabin was assassinated, as soon as the results were announced after midnight, followed by Barak’s victory address, facing the statue in commemoration of the late Prime Minister.
15th Knesset Parties
The Law for the Direct Election of the Prime Minister, which came into force three years ago, enables voters to vote separately for the prime ministerial candidates and for the party that is to represent them in Knesset. The party of the Prime Minister Elect is not assured of the same voting strength as he personally attracted. In the 14th Knesset, this Law already eroded the strength of the traditional large parties, Labor and Likud, giving greater power to sectarian parties.
This erosion happened again last night, making the 15th Knesset more factionalised than ever. It will have fourteen parties, replacing the ten of the outgoing Knesset. However, a significant change has come about in the balance of forces between the ideological blocs. Thanks to this change, it will be easier for Barak to form a coalition with a stable Jewish majority. He will thus not be exposed to attack by the opposing camp, as in the time of the late Yitzhak Rabin, who had, perforce, to lean on Arab votes in the Knesset.
Another factor making his task easier is the weakening of the nationalistic right-wing bloc (Likud, National Religious Party (Mafdal), and Moledet (which merged with the National Union), from 43 to 27 MKs. The solid left-wing bloc (Meretz and the Arab factions), maintained their strength, returning only 18 - 19 MKs.
The most dramatic turn of events was the increase in the strength of the orthodox and ultra-orthodox bloc from 14 to 22 MKs, as the Sephardi-Oriental party Shas shot up from 10 to 17 MKs, while the Ashkenazi-European United Torah Judaism increased from 4 to 5. Midway stands One Israel, a merger of Labour, Gesher (David Levy’s social faction that seceded from the Likud), and Meimad (a liberal religious faction). Positioned alongside is the not less significant innovation of a new centre bloc with 23 MKs, include the Center Party (6 disappointed former members of Likud and Labour), the anti-religious Shinui (the big surprise of these elections; it burgeoned from next to nothing to 6 MKs), and immigrants from the former Soviet Union (whose representation has increased from 7 to 11).
Barak’s One Israel is the largest faction, consisting of 27 MKs. To it should be added the 2 MKs of Am Ehad, the new workers party of Histadrut chairman Amir Peretz. One Israel was not as badly shorn as the Likud, and still has a basis for a coalition that will promote the peace process with some of the Left and Centre factions. Barak is under pressure from his voters to form a government without the orthodox and the ultra-orthodox, who favour religious coercion, and to opt for a broad-based government for the purposes of the final status arrangements with the Palestinians. All this may cause him to effect a rapprochement with the Likud. Netanyahu’s declared intention of resigning his leadership of the Likud will make this much easier.
Published by Israel's Business Arena May 18, 1999