The "Globes-Smith" survey for the 1999 elections continues to ask five questions, but adds another one refusing to drop from the public agenda - Mordechai’s continued candidacy.
The questions posed to the interviewees were not about how they would vote if elections were held today, as is generally the way questions are phrased in media surveys, but rather, how they will vote on election day itself.
The survey was taken after the stormy meeting of the Center Party, which was obliged to accept Mordechai’s stand against withdrawing from the race, and in the throes of the crisis at Orient House in Jerusalem.
Q: Elections for Prime Minister will take place in another week. Who will you vote for Benjamin Netanyahu, Ehud Barak, Yitzhak Mordechai, Benny Begin or Azami Bishara?
A: Netanyahu 36% (31% a week ago, 32% on April 25-26); Barak 42% (40%, 35%); Mordechai 5% (5%, 7%); Begin 2% (1%, 2%); Azami Bishara 1% (2%, not asked prior to last week); still undecided 7% (11%, 17%); not planning to vote/no answer 7% (9%, 8%).
The figures show that, as the election date approaches, there are less unfathomed votes. The percentage decreases in the undecided ("still don’t know") category, and most of those in the "not planning to vote or no answer" category are moving to Netanyahu, with a few going to Barak. The gap, however, remains significantly in Barak’s favor.
Despite Mordechai’s firm declarations that he will run right to the end of the campaign, the matter appears to refuse to drop out of the agenda, and the survey examined it once more:
Q: In the event that Mordechai will eventually be persuaded to withdraw his candidacy, and join up with Barak, and Netanyahu, Barak, Begin, and Bishara compete in the first round, who will you vote for?
A: Netanyahu 38% (34% a week ago, 35% on April 25-26); Barak 47% (46%, 44%); Begin 2% (3%, 1%); Bishara 1% (1%); still undecided 6% (9%, 6%); not planning to vote/no answer 5% (8%, 4%).
Here too there appears to be less unfathomed votes, with most of the newly decided voting for Netanyahu, and few for Barak. But in this event too, Barak’s advantage remains large - 9%.
With some reservations, the survey examined the candidates’ support in the second round.
Q: If a second round of elections is held and the candidates are Netanyahu and Barak, who will you vote for?
A: Netanyahu 41% (37% a week ago, 36% on April 25-26); Barak 50% (46%, 44%); still undecided 5% (9%, 12%); not planning to vote/no answer 5% (8%, 8%).
The implication in this event, which at the moment appears to be the most reasonable, is that the don’t knows will divide equally between Netanyahu and Barak. The gap between them will remain as it was. However, Barak will reach the 50% mark, and he needs only a fraction of a percentage to win.
Published by Israel's Business Arena May 11, 1999