"Palestinian violence is not eroding Israel's overall strategic power."
The Middle East strategic balance sheet is clearly inclined in Israel's favor, and Israel is still the strongest military force in the region. Israel's deterrent capability in both conventional and unconventional weapons is the major barrier against any significant escalation in the region resulting from the confrontation with the Palestinian Authority.
This emerges from an analysis of the 2000-2001 Military Balance of Middle East forces published today by the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies at Tel Aviv University. The report was prepared by Prof. Shai Feldman, who heads the Center, and Lt.Col.(res.) Yiftah Shafir, head of the balance of forces project.
Feldman writes, "From the Arab standpoint, the strategic gap is widening in Israel's favor, particularly in technology, which constitutes the key to efficient exploitation of the forces on the battlefield. This refers mainly to the Air Force's intelligence systems and includes protection against ballistic missiles from space. Compared to the Israel Defense Forces, all Arab armies lag behind in applying "the military revolution" vis-a-vis intelligence and command and control, which constitute the key to managing air, land and sea forces."
The report claims that the Palestinian violence creates a real strategic challenge for Israel. However, despite the difficulties involved in meeting this challenge, it is not eroding Israel's overall strategic power, which stems from its superiority in conventional fighting; from the Arab belief that Israel is a nuclear power; from Israel's close relations with the US; and from the fact that the Arab countries have not found an alternative to the aid they received from the Soviet Union in the past. Under this balance of power, it is in the interests of most Arab countries to maintain stability in the region and avoid an overall war with Israel.
Published by Israel's Business Arena on 11 June, 2001