We have witnessed a surprising and odd series of events in disparate fields in recent weeks. In economics, there has been a partial European business and consumer boycott of Israeli goods and heavy financial transfers overseas by Israelis. In culture, there was a widespread boycott of the Israel Festival in Jerusalem by international artists, and of concerts overseas by Israeli artists Yaffa Yarkoni and Hava Alberstein. In law and morality, there was the Jenin Committee affair and Israel's plans for dealing with the International Criminal Court.
I believe these disparate events constitute the misreading of a reality in which we are heading toward diplomatic, economic, cultural and legal isolation of the State of Israel. The South African and Rhodesian syndrome is affecting us, and just as they did in the past, we fail to understand how this came about. After all, the enemy – Palestinians here and Black African there – is so violent and uncompromising.
Faster than expected, we will find ourselves in a time warp of Rhodesian reality of the 1970s and South Africa of the 1980s: enforced isolation from without and an isolationism from within.
Economics
The isolation and quarantine of Israel begins with objective factors arising from the war in the territories. The intifada destroyed tourism and slashed foreign investment. The continuation of the violence has greatly intensified the economic isolation. In recent weeks, we have seen direct efforts by foreign businesses, trade unions and European states to increase economic pressure on Israel.
The rising risk to Israeli economic activity, coupled with the opposition to the 35-year old occupation and latent anti-Semitism, increasingly isolate Israel’s economy. Objective economic reality, combined with falling foreign investment and the global economic slowdown have cut Israel GDP per capita from 4% growth in 2000 to 4% shrinkage in 2002.
These trends have substantially increased Israel’s budget deficit and national debt, with lower credit ratings, rapid depreciation of the shekel and higher inflation as the consequences.
In the past two weeks, we have seen warning signals within the economy. The symptoms are the surge in the dollar-shekel exchange rate to almost NIS 5/$, the rise in the long-term interest rate and an accelerated flight of capital. Israel’s response conforms to that of Rhodesia and South Africa: rising calls for isolationism in the form of “Buy Made in Israel” campaigns, dumping of French wine into the gutters, calls for tariffs, higher marginal tax rates, etc.
Regrettably, unlike mineral-rich South Africa, Israel’s economy is almost totally dependent on the outside world. Isolation means economic collapse, not just a decline in the standard of living. Israelis of every social class sense the crisis.
Almost 40% of businesses and companies are suffering credit and liquidity problems, business sector wages are falling sharply, the value of real estate and financial assets are wondrously shrinking. This is a recipe for an accelerated deficit, tax revenue and foreign currency crisis. The tax-laden emergency economic plan will complete the downfall of the isolationist state.
Culture
Israel is facing intensifying isolation in culture and sports as well. In these spheres, too, objective security threats, diplomatic-ideological hostility and modernized anti-Semitism in the guise of anti-Zionism are diminishing Israel’s reciprocal cultural ties with the rest of the world.
The cancellation of tours by foreign artists to Israel and foreign invitations of Israeli artists are signs of the hostility by the world’s writers and the efforts of organizations and universities against their Israeli counterparts have become commonplace. Most of the opposition to Israel is rationalized by a variety of fatuous excuses.
Israelis responses also conform to Rhodesia and South Africa’s: boycotting unfriendly organizations and countries and increasing rancorously arguing with individuals and groups who don’t conform totally to the general consensus.
The Children of Israel are self-righteous and don’t want to be doubted, criticized or questioned. Those who refuse to face reality find slogans like “Splendid Isolation” and “The World is Against Us” as an all-to-convenient way of life.
Law and morality
The IDF Advocate General said in an interview with a weekend newspaper, “The IDF is readying for the possibility that officers may be detained abroad.” He was referring to suits brought before International Criminal Court.
This statement best expresses what we can expect in years to come. The combination of the settlements defined as a violation of the International Criminal Court Statute of 1998, and current military operations in the territories is placing Israel into a legal and moral isolation from which we will all suffer. We sense similar trends in the United Nations General Assembly and Security Council and human rights organizations, and may encounter them in international sporting organizations in the future.
Our heartfelt and possibly justified feeling that Israel's actions in the territories are in self-defense cannot withstand the opposition of 98% of the countries of the world. They say that after 35 years of occupation and hundreds of settlements between every other Palestinian villages, Israel’s claims that it desires peace seem like a deliberate blindness to and unworthy ignoring of reason. Israel strengthens this accusation by continuing even now to build settlements in the territories and on the Golan.
As expected, we have chosen to boycott and limit relations with the international legal and human rights organizations. The UN Jenin committee was one example. Our assumption that US support will protect us from isolation will be tested in the years ahead.
Isolation and current trends
The Blacks in southern Africa, like the Palestinians in the territories, chose violence and total non-compromise as a tool to achieve their ends. The Black Africans achieved all of their goals: Rhodesia became Zimbabwe in 1980 and South Africa came under Black African rule in 1994. The White Africans realized that the economic, diplomatic and cultural price they were paying for their isolation was so high it was preferable to utterly concede their minority rule. They, like us, underwent internal and external radicalization, censoring any criticism, until finally reaching the asked-for conclusion.
Israel is undergoing a similar process, with some positive differences. Arab and Palestinian demands usually call “only” for a return to the 1967 border in the territories and the Golan, rather than for the elimination of Israel altogether. Israel also enjoys widespread US support. On the other hand, our situation is worse than Rhodesia and South Africa, because Israel is almost totally dependent on the global economy, given the country’s lack of natural resources. In addition, international hostility is not only about the occupation. There are pockets of permanent and solid Islamic and anti-Semitic hatred.
Israel is now choosing the path of status-quo and isolation. The unrealistic demand to make Palestinian Authority chairman Yasser Arafat a non-active chairman, while carrying out security and democratic reforms, while simultaneously cold-shouldering the Saudi plan or even freezing settlement construction is proof of this choice. Israel knows well that this policy will institutionalize the violent status-quo for years to come. Nevertheless, it continues the trend of diplomatic, moral and economic isolationism, while continuing the occupation, maintaining all the settlements and keeping military control in Area A.
The continuance of these trends will sooner or later bring Israel to the same conclusion reach by the Whites of Rhodesia and South Africa. The enormous price of isolation will drag us into completely withdrawing from the territories, either in the context of a peace treaty, or without one as a unilateral act.
Published by Globes [online] - www.globes.co.il - on May 14. 2002