The Likud party has recovered somewhat after last week's dip; Shinui's star has faded slightly, but Labor is still not gaining.
The crop of opinion polls from the end of last week showed support for the Likud party weakening considerably. For the first time since the elections were announced, the Likud slipped below 30 projected Knesset seats. The decline was presumably due to the corruption scandals that began to hit not only the party but also its leader, Ariel Sharon, hitherto considered impregnable.
The polls published today by "Globes","Yediot Ahronot", and "Maariv", show the Likud bouncing back. Voters may have rallied to the Likud after the broadcast of the press conference called last week by the prime minister to explain his conduct in the affair of the loan from South African businessman Cyril Kern was taken off the air by order of Judge Mishael Cheshin, who heads the Central Election Committee.
Poll of polls published January 13, 2003
Table shows projected number of Knesset seats for each party
| Globes | Maariv | Yediot | Average | Change since Jan 8-9* | Change since Dec 27* | Current Knesset |
| Likud | 32 | 32 | 33 | 32 | 3 | -3 | 19 |
| Shas | 10 | 9 | 10 | 10 | -1 | 1 | 17 |
| Ihud Leumi | 7 | 9 | 8 | 8 | -1 | 1 | 8 |
| National Religious Party | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 5 |
| United Torah Judaism | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Yisrael Ba'aliya | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | -1 | 6 |
| Herut | 1 | 1 |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Total right/religious parties | 62 | 63 | 63 | 63 | 1 | -2 | 60 |
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| Labor | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | -2 | -1 | 26 |
| Meretz | 8 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| Arab parties | 9 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 0 | -1 | 10 |
| Total left parties | 37 | 39 | 35 | 37 | -2 | -2 | 46 |
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| Shinui | 16 | 13 | 17 | 15 | -1 | 2 | 6 |
| One Nation | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Green Leaf | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Total center parties | 21 | 17 | 23 | 20 | 1 | 4 | 8 |
* Includes Haaretz poll.
Small discrepancies in the table are due to rounding differences.
The Likud's showing in the polls is still well below the peak of its support before the election campaign got underway. Labor, however, is so far failing to capitalize. Some of the votes lost to the Likud are going to other parties within the right-wing/religious bloc,while the most interesting trend in these elections, the emergence of Shinui as a substantial political force, continues. Shinui's platform, which combines anti-clericalism, economic liberalism, and a moderate stance on territorial compromise with the Palestinians, is clearly proving attractive to secular middle-class voters seeking to register a protest, and the two major parties have no answer.
It should be remembered that the Likud's gain over its current Knesset representation was expected, because of the reversion to a purely parliamentary system of voting in these elections, with no separate vote for prime minister. Splitting one's vote between a major party leader for prime minister and a small, sectoral party for the Knesset, is no longer possible. Hence the movement to Likud from Shas; these parties draw their support from a similar pool of voters. But the other major party, Labor, is showing no net benefit from the change in electoral rules, mainly because the Palestinian terror campaign has made voters more hawkish.
In this light, the Shinui phenomenon is all the more remarkable. The party has gone from six seats in the current Knesset tofifteen in the polls, a huge leap, though the latest survey shows it losingmomentum slightly.It must be borne in mind of course that there is still some way to go, and Shinui's success in the opinion polls maybe a matter of passing sentiment. As Hemi Shalev points out in Maariv, amongrespondents who say they are sure which way they will vote (figures not shown here), Shinui's showing is less impressive.
Israel's press and media are speculating about a possible secular coalition after the elections that would inlcude Likud, Labor, and Shinui. At any rate, assuming that, despite his current troubles, Ariel Sharon still forms the next government, it looks as though he will face some tough choices. Juggling a coalition that will back his declared position in favor of a Palestinian state, while suppressing dissent within his own party, will be a difficult trick. The criss-crossing fault-lines of Israeli poltics, between rich and poor, hawks and doves, and secular and religious, make firm ground as hard as ever to find.
Published by Globes [online] - www.globes.co.il - on January 13, 2003