The “Globes” voter survey contains a surprise for anyone assuming that the election results are a foregone conclusion the contest is up for grabs, and victory for each side is within the sample error. The statistical variation the polling professionals take into account are a matter of life and death for the parties contesting for the Knesset.
The Globes-Smith poll results show a statistical draw between the right-wing and center-left blocs, if the Green Leaf (marijuana legalization) party is included in the latter. The Globes-Smith survey predicts 32 Knesset seats for the Likud and 19-20 for the Labor Party. Meretz, however, has risen to 10-11, while Shinui gained another seat to boost its total to 17, and Shas lost one, reducing its total to 9. One Nation has gained one seat, while the other parties have retained the same strength. The right-wing bloc thus has 61-62 Knesset seats, while the center-left bloc has 58-59.
What may actually happen on election day is that the Bader-Offer Law, which divides vote surpluses between the parties, will decide which bloc will have a Knesset majority. What is more important is that for the first time, the survey indicates that no narrow government may be possible, and a political stalemate may be created, which will continue for a considerable period.
Furthermore, a significant trend has been emerging in recent days. This trend should be noted, because it is unique to the current election campaign. Only 52% of the voters are sure of whom they will vote for, while 21% are inclined to vote for a certain party, but aren’t sure. If the statistical error is added to the undecided, the result is that the election campaign is open, as far as which bloc will achieve a Knesset majority.
Israel goes to the polls on January 28.
Published by Globes [online] - www.globes.co.il - on January 19, 2003