Israel's consumer confidence index rose 14 points in March to 81 points (1996=100), its highest level since the fourth quarter of 2001. All the index's components rose, especially people's greater optimism about the general and personal economic situation over the next six months. Most population segments are optimistic.
The consumer confidence index is now 31 points above its low point of 50 in March 2002, but 25 points below its high point of 106 in January 1997 and July 1999.
The public's assessment of the current economic situation also rose in March, although the rise was minimal, and the public's overall assessment of the economy is still very negative, significantly below its assessment before the outbreak of the intifada in September 2000.
On the other hand, the public's expectations for the economy in six months improved. 35% of respondents are optimistic, compared with 24% in February, while the number of pessimists fell sharply. The public's expectations for their personal situation in six months also greatly improved. 26% of respondents are optimistic, compared with 18% in February.
"Globes" Research publishes Israel's consumer confidence index monthly. It is based on representative sample of 500 people. The index, unique in Israel, is forward-looking, in other words, it has proven predictive abilities about fluctuations in production and economic activity. A Bank of Israel study confirmed the consumer confidence index's high predictive power and emphasized its uniqueness.
The consumer confidence index booklet, published today, includes complete segments and profiles of Israeli consumer trends for the next six months.
A "Globes" Research analysis found that the positive turnaround in the public's consumption plans began in February and continued in March. It has now expanded beyond durable goods to include cars and apartments.
The proportion of respondents with no purchase plans has fallen to the level of summer 2003, before the great wave of purchasing in the third quarter of last year. The data therefore suggest a further expansion in purchases during the second and third quarters of this year.
Published by Globes [online] - www.globes.co.il - on April 8, 2004