The polls closed in today's Knesset election at 22:00 this evening. The exit polls show the two major parties, Likud and Zionist Union, extremely close, but a distinct advantage to the right-wing block, so that Benjamin Netanyahu is best placed to form a coalition.
According to the exit poll released by Channel 1 television, the result, in terms of Knesset seats, is as follows:
Likud 27
Zionist Union 27
Yisrael Beitenu 5
Yesh Atid 12
Habayit Hayehudi 9
Arab list 12
Shas 7
Yahad 0
United Torah Judaism 6
Meretz 5
Kulanu 10.
The Channel 10 poll shows the same state of play between the major parties, while Channel 2 gives Likud a slight advantage, with 28 seats to 27 seats for Zionist Union. The results for the other parties are similar in the two other exit polls to those of the Channel 1 poll. The exit polls also indicate a fairly high voter turnout in comparison with recent elections, of 71.8%.
The key to who will in fact be invited by President Rivlin to form a government, Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu or Zionist Union leader Isaac Herzog, appears to lie with Kulanu leader, and former Likud minister, Moshe Kahlon, who refused throughout the election campaign to say whom he would recommend to the president. According to the exit polls, together with his natural partners on the right Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beitenu, Naftali Bennett's Habayit Hayhehudi, and the haredi parties Shas and United Torah Judaism, Netanyahu can command the support of around 54 out of 120 members of Knesset. Kahlon's support will therefore be decisive. He said this evening that he had spoken to Netanyahu and Herzog, but that he would give a decision on his recommendation only after the actual election results were available.
President Rivlin meanwhile reportedly favors a unity government that would include both Likud and the Zionist Union, with rotation of the premiership between Netanyahu and Herzog, and it could be that Kahlon will cooperate with this aim. Kahlon spoke this evening of a need to "heal rifts and rejuvenate Israeli society". Some commentators are saying that Netanyahu himself would prefer not to head a narrow right-wing coalition that would severely limit his room for maneuver, in domestic policy, and even more so on the diplomatic front.
The Zionist Union has not given up hope of leading the next government, and said in a statement this evening that everything was still open, and that it had set up a coalition negotiation team. For his part, Netanyahu commented that the exit poll figures represented "a victory against the odds."
The far-right party Yahad, formed as a split-off from Shas by Eli Yishai, fails to pass the minimum vote threshold in all the polls. The joint Arab list, on the other hand, looks set to be the third largest faction in the Knesset, although there are question marks over its ability to hold together.
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on March 17, 2015
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