After two inconclusive elections, Israel's third election within a year, held today, may have produced a result. The exit polls published after the close of the voting stations in Israel's general election indicate that Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party will be the largest party in the next Knesset. If borne out by the results of the actual vote count, the figures represent a triumph for Netanyahu, although it is not clear that he will be able to form a coalition with a majority in the 120-seat Knesset.
The Channel 13 exit poll gives 37 seats to Likud; 32 to Benny Gantz's Blue & White party; 14 to the Joint Arab List; 6 to Labor-Gesher-Meretz; 6 to Yamina; 8 to United Torah Judaism; 9 to Shas; and 8 to Yisrael Beitenu.
According to the exit poll published by public broadcaster Kan, Likud will have 36 seats; Blue & White 33; the Joint Arab List 15; Labor-Gesher-Meretz 6; Yamina 7; United Torah Judaism 8; Shas 9; and Yisrael Beitenu 6.
The exit poll published by Channel 12 gives Likud 37 seats; Blue & White 33; Joint Arab List 14; Labor-Gesher-Meretz 7; Yamina 7; United Torah Judaism 7; Shas 9; Yisrael Beitenu 6.
All three polls show the right-wing block (Likud, Yamina, United Torah Judaism, Shas) with 60 seats, one seat short of a majority.
The Likud's lead over Blue & White is a surprise in relation to the results of the previous two elections, in April and September last year, in which Blue & White had a narrow lead, although neither party was able to form a government. Until the last week or so of the current campaign, opinion polls showed Blue & White ahead, but then the momentum appeared to swing Likud's way.
Comparing the average of the exit polls with the results of the election in September 2018, Likud has gained five seats, going from 32 to 37; Blue & White is steady at 33 seats; while the left-wing grouping of Labor-Gesher-Meretz has lost five seats, dropping from eleven to six. The other parties have each remained unchanged or have gained or lost one seat.
By tomorrow evening, the results of the regular polling stations, representing about 95% of the total vote, will be declared. The final count, including special access voting stations, stations at IDF bases, in hospitals, prisons, and Israeli missions overseas, as well as those for people in quarantine because of possible contact with Covid-19 coronavirus carriers, will be declared by Wednesday night.
Minutes after the exit poll results were announced, Netanyahu tweeted simply "Thank you", with a red heart emoji. He talked to the heads of the other right-wing block parties and they agreed to meet tomorrow morning. A statement from Likud said: "Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke this evening to all the heads of the parties in the nationalist camp, and they agreed that they would form a strong nationalist government for Israel within a short time."
Netanyahu's trial on corruption charges is due to start on March 17, which could complicate the coalition forming process if the High Court of Justice is called upon to rule whether a person facing trial on criminal charges can be tasked with forming a government.
Published by Globes, Israel business news - en.globes.co.il - on March 2, 2020
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