There are disparities in the results of the weekend opinion polls, with just a month to go before Israel’s second general election within six months. A poll published by Radio FM103 and Ma’ariv on Friday shows Likud in the lead with 32 projected Knesset seats, and Blue and White trailing with 30 seats, whereas a poll released Channel 13 News on Thursday evening showed both parties on 31 seats. Yemina, led by Ayelet Shaked, receives 12 seats according to the poll published on Thursday, but only 9 in the later poll, the party’s lowest showing since Shaked’s consolidated right-wing list was formed, and 5 seats below its peak in the polls.
Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beitenu scored 11 seats on Thursday and 10 on Friday, while the Joint Arab List rose from 9 to 11. The Democratic Union party wins 7 seats and Shas 8. Labor-Gesher has strengthened slightly, to 6 seats.
The campaigns launched last week roused the political system somewhat, but not enough to wake most people from their summer political slumber. The volatility in the polls is more of an indication of uncertainty among the Israeli voting public than of genuine trends. At any rate, according to both polls, Avigdor Liberman holds the key to any coalition that might arise after the election, and incumbent prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu will not be able to form a new government without him. If this projection materializes in the actual results, Liberman will be able to force the formation of a unity government of Likud, Blue and White, and Yisrael Beitenu. At this stage, Blue and White is saying that it will not join a government led by Netanyahu, but this could of course change when the moment of truth arrives.
Over the next two weeks, the part machines will start to get the race going, but the main campaigning will take place in the first two weeks of September, and it can be expected to be at least as fierce and ugly as in the April election.
The following projection, in terms of numbers of Knesset seats each party is expected to win, is based on an average of the following polls: a Ma’ariv-FM103 poll carried out on August 16; a Chanel 13 News poll from August 15; a Channel 12 News poll from August 13; a Ma’ariv-FM103 poll from August 9; and a Walla! Poll from August 5.
Blue and White 30
Joint Arab List 11
Yisrael Beitenu 10
Democratic Union 7
United Torah Judaism 7
Published by Globes, Israel business news - en.globes.co.il - on August 18, 2019
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