Gideon Sa'ar's New Hope party is on the decline, as is the Joint Arab List following the split from Ra'am, according to the first opinion polls after the finalization last Thursday of party lists for the Knesset election on March 23. The polls were published on Friday on Channel 12 and Channel 13. The alliance on the far right between Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionist party and Otzma Yehudit, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir, has stabilized above the minimum vote threshold in the average of the five most recent polls.
In the Channel 13 poll, Likud is projected to win 30 Knesset seats, Yesh Atid 17, New Hope is down to just 13, Yamina is on 11 seats, Labor is on 7, as is the Joint Arab List. Shas is on 7 seats, United Torah Judaism falls to 6 and Yisrael Beitenu to 5, the Religious Zionist and Otzma Yehudit alliance is on 5, and Blue & White, Meretz and Ra'am bring up the rear with 4 seats each.
In the Channel 12 poll, Likud has 29 seats, Yesh Atid 17, New Hope 14, Yamina 11, the Joint Arab lIst 9, Shas 8, United Torah Judaism 7, Yisrael Beitenu 7, Labor 6, and Meretz, Blue & White, and Religious Zionist-Otzma Yehudit have 4 seats each. In this poll, Ra'am is below the minimum vote threshold.
As in several recent elections, the drama is mainly at the bottom: which parties surpass the minimum vote threshold and which fall below it will to a large extent determine whether or not Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be able to form a new coalition after the election.
The average of the five most recent polls shows the anti-Netanyahu bock on 58 seats without Yamina, but the chances of the parties that make up this block sitting together in government seem to be less than zero. On the other hand, the pro-Netanyahu block, though more coherent, is a long way from being able to form a coalition without Yamina, which means that Yamina leader Naftali Bennett may well find himself at the end of March in the role of the prime minister's potential savior.
The average result of the five most recent polls is as follows:
Likud - 30
Yesh Atid - 17
New Hope - 14
Yamina - 11
Joint Arab List - 10
Shas - 8
United Torah Judaism - 7
Yisrael Beitenu - 7
Labor - 6
Meretz - 5
Religious Zionist-Otzma Yehudit - 4
The results do not total 120, the number of seats in the Knesset, because of the averaging process.
Published by Globes, Israel business news - en.globes.co.il - on February 7, 2021
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