Israel's media have already crowned the candidate of the Muslim Brotherhood as the president of Egypt. But Khayrat el-Shater does not know that he is a candidate at all. The scoop was made by one of Israel's dailies, which told its readers that, after taking over parliament, the Muslim Brotherhood is taking over the presidency as well. This is not the first time that an as yet unrealized political move in an Arab country has been interpreted in Israel as signs of an existential threat.
While Israel has written off relations between Cairo and Jerusalem, the Muslim Brotherhood's announcement of el-Shater's candidacy has caused an internal crisis in the movement, and between it and its voters. Up to now, a week before registration is closed, el-Shater's candidacy has not yet been submitted to the elections committee. The decision to run him was passed by one vote of the movement's top leaders. In other words, half of the 100-man Muslim Brotherhood Council opposes running a party candidate in the presidential elections.
The decision to run the Muslim Brotherhood's number 2 man has raised a serious question about the movement's credibility. Immediately after the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak in February 2011, the Muslim Brotherhood's leaders said that they would not run a candidate in the elections. Dr. Abd el-Munam Abu al-Fatuah, a senior party member who announced his candidacy, was ousted from its ranks. That was a calculated decision, which showed that the movement was not seeking power at any price.
The Muslim Brotherhood assessed its ability to capture Parliament, and that was enough for it for now. Behind the announcement lay hidden anxiety and a strong wish to share the heavy responsibilities with others.
Post-Mubarak Egypt is a human giant mired in complex problems. Political instability has so far concealed the economic decline. Investors and tourists are fleeing, and crime has soared - and this is in secure Egypt, where personal security was not a problem for its citizens and visitors.
That is why everyone was surprised by the announcement by the Muslim Brotherhood's leaders to try to capture the Presidential Palace. El-Shater, 62, is a charismatic politician. He has been imprisoned six times since the days of President Gamal el-Nasser. He is a successful businessman who made his fortune in furniture. Last year, he was the link between the Muslim Brotherhood's leadership and the US Department of State, and he impressed US diplomats with his pragmatic positions.
His colleagues, beginning with Muslim Brotherhood leader Dr. Mohammad Badia, said that Egypt's democracy was in jeopardy and that strong action was needed to save it as the reason for el-Shater's candidacy. They accused Egypt's Supreme Council of the Armed Forces of working behind the scenes using methods reminiscent of the old regime. These are not new accusations, which is why the Muslim Brotherhood has used them to break its promise to the public.
One possibility is that the decision to run el-Shater was made after it became clear that the army was planning to nominate the chief of the General Intelligence Service General Omar Suleiman at the last minute. His aides have already said on his behalf that he is ready to run. He has said nothing himself, but may make an announcement within days. If he runs, he has a good chance of winning, in which case Egypt will be run by a Mubarak look-alike. This is something that the Muslim Brotherhood wants to prevent.
It is premature to talk about a wall-to-wall takeover of Egyptian politics by the Muslim Brotherhood. The movement has not yet formulated clear policies on major issues. Hard questions are being raised in Cairo about its ability to run the country. The source of these questions is the movement's poor functioning in parliament.
Since taking its seats three months ago, the Muslim Brotherhood has mostly been busy with pointless debate and populist bills that serve its constituents rather than the general public. In Cairo's salons, talk is again rife about the long-time losers of the Brotherhood, and how, in its 80 years of existence, it never missed an opportunity to miss an opportunity.
Israel is too strong to be worried about Khayrat el-Shater. If he runs, let alone if he wins, his work will be hard enough without damaging relations with Israel. El-Shater is the first who knows this, and he promised a delegation of US Republicans that he would keep the peace treaty with Israel. Looking east, Cairo sees Jerusalem as the most stable anchor in the region. There is nothing in Libya to the west, the divided Sudan to the south, and definitely not in Gaza. The Egyptian public knows this well, and despite its longstanding loathing of Israel, a lethal blow to relations with it is seen as harmful to Egypt's national interests.
The writer is the Arab affairs correspondent for “IDF Radio" (Galei Zahal)
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on April 3, 2012
© Copyright of Globes Publisher Itonut (1983) Ltd. 2012