Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is examining the possibility of bringing the Knesset elections forward to late August or early September, before the Jewish holiday season, in order to prevent his rivals from organizing in time. Elections are due to be held in fall 2013, if the Knesset runs its full term. However, no final decision has been made.
This is not the first time that the idea of early elections has arisen during the period of the current Knesset, but the declaration by Israel Beitenu leader Avigdor Liberman on Saturday evening that in two weeks' time he will put to the vote an alternative proposal to the "Tal Law" on conscription of haredim (ultra-orthodox Jews) has brought urgency to the discussions Netanyahu is holding on early elections. Netanyahu does not want to appear to be overtaken by events, and seeks to set the agenda.
The prime minister's determination to beat Liberman to the post can be seen from the fact that on Saturday night he asked Boaz Nol and his fellow "suckers camp" protesters against inequality in conscription to meet him the next morning, before the cabinet meeting, to tell them that he, Netanyahu, would be the one to conscript the haredim.
A survey by the Rafi Smith Institute for "Globes" finds that if elections were held today, we would get more of the same. A things stand, Netanyahu will form the next government, at the head of an enlarged Likud. The ruling party will have 31 Knesset seats, four more than it has at present.
Israel Beitenu retains its present strength, with fifteen seats. This raises the question why Liberman should want to dismantle the government. If the current survey is correct, Netanyahu will be able to put together a coalition without Liberman, but Liberman could join a blocking faction against Netanyahu, and thus ensure his participation in the next government.
Survey results
(The figures show projected Knesset seats in the current survey; projected seats in the previous survey in March; and actual number of seats in the present Knesset.)
Likud (Benjamin Netanyahu): 31; 29; 27.
Israel Beitenu (Avigdor Liberman): 15; 16; 15.
Labor (Shelly Yachimovich): 15; 14; 13.
Kadima (Shaul Mofaz): 13; 15; 28.
Yesh Atid (Yair Lapid): 11; 9; -.
Shas (Eli Yishai): 8; 9; 11.
Haatzma'ut (Ehud Barak): 0; 0; 5.
United Torah Judaism: 6; 6; 5.
Ichud Leumi: 4; 4; 4.
Habayit Hayehudi - New National Religious Party: 3; 3; 3.
Meretz: 3; 4; 3.
Arab parties: 11; 11; 11.
The survey was carried out among a representative sample of 500 voters. Sampling error: 4.5%.
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on April 30, 2012
© Copyright of Globes Publisher Itonut (1983) Ltd. 2012