The latest opinion poll by the Rafi Smith Institute for "Globes" and 'The Jerusalem Post" shows that two pluses can make a minus, with Likud-Beytenu forecast to win just 34 Knesset seats in the January 22 elections, down five mandates from the last poll two weeks ago. When the Likud and Yisrael Beytenu announced their merger, they expected to win at least 42 seats and believed they could reach 45. Now they see 40 as an impossible dream.
The main recipient of Likud-Beitenu's loss has been Naftali Bennett's Habayit Hayehudi New National Religious Party, which is now forecast to win 14 seats, up from 10 in the last poll two weeks ago. Until last Thursday Bennett remained a fairly anonymous figure, with much of the public claiming to have never heard of him, and 47% of Likud voters saying that would not be able to identify him if they passed him in the street.
Bennett's strategists sought to raise his profile on a limited budget. His interview with Nissim Mishal last Thursday in which he said he would refuse an IDF order to evacuate a Jewish home in the territories did just that, and a "Globes" survey found that 39% of the public said that his statement has increased the likelihood they would vote for him. Moreover, the unrelenting onslaught by the Likud on Bennett for the statement was interpreted as an attack on Israel's entire religious community. The other seat lost by Likud-Beytenu seems to have gone to Shas, which is forecast to win 11 seats, up from 10 in the last poll.
The shifting around of seats on the right has done little to change the balance of power between right and left with Likud-Beytenu still a long odds-on favorite to form the next government albeit as a weaker head of the coalition.
Labor has slipped one seat to 18 in the latest poll after Amir Peretz's defection to Tzipi Livni's Hatenuah, which has gained one seat at 10. Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid has also gained one seat and moved up to 10.
The poll also finds that there is still much to play for. The elections may be only three weeks away but 17% of voters have still not decided which party they will support.
Poll results
The results show the projected number of seats for each party according to the current survey, followed by the number of seats in the previous survey on December 13, and, in parentheses, the number of seats in the current Knesset.
Likud-Beytenu 34, 39 (42); Labor 18, 19 (13) ; Habayit Hayehudi 14, 10 (7); Shas 11, 10 (11); Yesh Atid 10, 9 (-); Hatenuah 10, 9 (-); United Torah Judaism 6, 6 (5); Meretz 4, 4 (3); Hadash 4, 4 (4); National Democratic Assembly 4, 4 (4); Ra'am-Ta'al 3, 3 (3); Am Shalem 2, 3 (-)
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on December 27, 2012
© Copyright of Globes Publisher Itonut (1983) Ltd. 2012