After two weeks of straying in foreign fields, Likud voters are coming home: the decline in the polls of Likud-Beytenu has been halted with a screech of brakes, and the combined list is moving up the gears and accelerating. The latest poll by Rafi Smith for "Globes" gives Likud-Beytenu two more seats than last week, and the list is on 34 seats. Abandonment of Arthur Finkelstein's negative campaign and the start of positive campaigning (Likud supporters love the campaign theme of Likud's achievements), have brought home the votes that wandered in the past few weeks. Likud is on the rebound.
The change in trend can be attributed to the childish behavior of the parties of the left, which failed to reach agreement and unite, and also perhaps to the fear of some voters for the future of Likud rule. The campaign exposing the make-up of the Habayit Hayehudi candidates list has also apparently started to penetrate, and Naftali Bennett's rise has been halted. Likud-Beytenu will continue with this campaign next week.
In nearly every election campaign, the largest party drops in the polls, and in the last week there is a trend of voters returning home. In 2003, Ariel Sharon encountered this phenomenon when he fell to 28 seats in the last poll before the election, and Labor narrowed the gap with 24, to the point that Labor leader Amram Mitzna was almost sitting on the prime minister's desk. What was described in the press as Sharon's "black weekend" ended with 38 seats for Likud and 19 for Labor. Sharon remained prime minister until 2006, and Mitzna resigned.
At any rate, this poll ought to be a warning sign for Bennett. His brothers and sisters campaign is no longer effective, and it looks as though Habayit Hayehudi has exhausted its potential. From here, it starts to decline. Within a week, Bennett has lost two seats to Likud, and is on 14.
The parties will devote next week to the battle on the final poll. The end of next week will be last date on which the law permits public opinion surveys to be published. Like the picture of the end of a war, it is the last numbers that will be etched on people's minds, and that will translate into votes at the ballot box five days later.
Livni the loser
It appears that the main loser from the attempt to unite the left-wing block is Hatenuah leader Tzipi Livni. Hatenuah has lost two seats in a week. The move that Livni herself initiated has done her nothing but harm, and she again came across as politically inept. After failing to form a government when Olmert resigned, after not joining Netanyahu's government when she was offered an equal partnership, and after failing to represent an alternative to the prime minister as leader of the opposition, along came this move and almost finally fixed her image as a failure. Even if Livni's intentions were pure, in the in-depth surveys and focus groups that Hatenuah conducts, again and again it emerges that Livni is perceived as someone who has failed and disappointed.
Livni is paying the price twice over: once by not succeeding in forming a left alternative, and again by losing credibility. She is now seen as cannibalizing the left block and as a spoiler. What she did to Labor and Meretz in 2009, Lapid and Yachimovich are doing to her today. She stole their seats then; they are drinking her blood now. While Livni is starting to lose altitude, Yachimovich is strengthening, and Lapid, while not rising, is not falling either.
On the left, it appears, people are looking for clear positions, and Livni is not answering to that. Lapid declared loudly and clearly that he will try to exert influence from within the coalition. Yachimovich committed to staying in opposition (assuming Netanyahu forms the next government) in the knowledge, incidentally, that a substantial constituency prefers Lapid's stance of working from within. This sharpening of positions clarified the confused picture on the left, and with both these parties combining in their attack on Livni, the consequences for her are tough.
Lapid has maintained his strength, and is turning his focus onto what he has tried so hard to avoid: stepping into his late father's shoes and his war on the haredim (ultra-Orthodox Jews). After an unfocused campaign, he was forced this week to get back to his origins, and declared that he would not join a coalition with haredi parties.
Yachimovich will exploit the final week to ask the public for the political strength that will position her as an alternative to Netanyahu. The goal: 25 seats. "Don't waste your vote on nonsense," Yachimovich will tell the undecided. The Labor Party's own surveys indicate that there are eight potential seats worth of voters wavering between a blank vote and one-time parties that will not pass the minimum threshold, and it will focus its appeal on them. But if Yachimovich fails to bring in at least 20 seats, the knives will start to be sharpened in the party with a view to leadership elections.
Kadima broadcasts stand out
Although election broadcasts are considered old-fashioned, the rain and snow of the past few days have meant that hundreds of thousands of home-bound viewers have been exposed to them. In the case of Kadima, this is the difference between crossing the minimum vote threshold or not, between being in the Knesset, of ceasing to exist. Because it is currently one of the largest parties, Kadima, like Likud, gets a great deal of airtime, and all the exposure it has not managed to gain in the regular press and media, it is gaining there.
Kadima could be the surprise of this election. It is running a campaign of an underdog. They're hurting us. Kicking us around. That's how it is. A thrashed puppy is allowed to say what a puppy with its tail in the air can't. Kadima is trying to restore positive sentiment to leader Shaul Mofaz, and put the party back in the game. Even if the public does not think that he is right for prime minister, they say, that doesn't mean he can't be a member of Knesset.
At present, it’s the best campaign seen in these election broadcasts. In the Likud party they admit that Kadima's broadcasts are winners, and they have no problem with that. They would prefer to see a strong Kadima, at Livni's expense. If it does get over the minimum vote threshold, it is not improbable that Mofaz will be a minister in the next government. Not a senior minister perhaps, but a decent middling portfolio is certainly a possibility.
Poll results
The results show the projected number of seats for each party according to the current survey, followed by the number of seats in the previous survey on January 3, and, in parentheses, the number of seats in the current Knesset.
Likud-Beytenu 34, 32 (42)
Labor 18, 17 (13)
Habayit Hayehudi 14, 16 (7)
Shas 10, 10 (11)
Yesh Atid 10, 10 (-)
Hatenuah 8, 10 (-)
United Torah Judaism 6, 5 (5)
Meretz 4, 4 (3)
Hadash 4, 4 (4)
National Democratic Assembly 4, 4 (4)
Ra'am-Ta'al 3, 3 (3)
Am Shalem 3, 2 (-)
Kadima 2, 2 (28).
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on January 10, 2013
© Copyright of Globes Publisher Itonut (1983) Ltd. 2013