Coalition negotiations for a new government have finally gotten underway, and in just over a month, Israel will have a new group of ministers who will try to deal with the country's problems a bit more successfully than their predecessors. Judging by the election results, a substantial proportion of Israeli voters felt that the time has come for change, if not in the identity of the prime minister, at least among those who sit at the cabinet table.
It is hard to know whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also understood the portent of the elections in this way. He has not spoken much, but his deeds suggest that he has not grasped the voters' message. The Natan Eshel scandal, remarks that Iran is the new government's top priority, leaks about cutting public sector salaries and closing the labor courts indicate that almost nothing has changed with him.
But the main problem in the coalition negotiations is not the prime minister, but his possible partners. As far as they are concerned, partnership with Netanyahu and his party is tantamount to buying toxic assets. In banking, a toxic asset is something that was once considered a profitable asset, but which subsequently turned out to be the source of heavy losses which can even put the bank's very existence in question.
The coalition toxicity will be revealed soon. First, drawing up a budget for the next 18 months will force any government to make hard decisions about sharing the economic burden. That is always hard, but becomes even harder when it takes place during a slowdown. Based on reports to date, it seems that there is now a desire to pursue the alternative of across-the-board budget cuts, cutting services to the people, cutting salaries, and raising indirect taxes. All of these will be approved accompanied by ostensible defense budget cuts, which will be restored within months, and by the ostensible cancellation of exemptions, most of which the Knesset will not pass.
That is not all. Netanyahu's partners will discover that he has a bag of commitments that he will bring to any new government, and that they will have to be paid. This is the budget hole of tens of billions of shekels that he wants to cover. This is a hole partly created by profligate promises about budget sources made by the outgoing government to the settlers, to the haredim (ultra-orthodox), and other cronies. The problem is that there is no way to change these promises as they have been enacted in law.
This should be made clear to every new MK who will be part of the new coalition - whatever you think, whatever your personal history, whatever your intentions - you will share Netanyahu's past and future deeds the moment the coalition agreement is signed, for better or worse, even if these deeds were signed long before you thought of entering politics.
Every financing for illegal outposts, every arrangement with a businessman with political connections, every mistake in public administration will henceforth be part of the new MKs' persona. It is their political, economic, and moral responsibility. If they don’t know it yet, it will become clearer when they sit on their Knesset seats and become targets for criticism and attack.
The same is true at the diplomatic level. If new US Secretary of State John Kerry comes to Jerusalem in two weeks to demand detailed answers about the government's policy plans, he will almost certainly hear the same old arguments made by Netanyahu and his foreign minister over the past four years.
By every logic and rule, these explanations will become the explanations of whoever joins the new government, even if they are not to his liking, and he is coming with good intentions and even if he declares that it is not him, but his party. Every new coalition member should know this - from now on they are no longer individuals, but votes for the new Israeli government.
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on February 3, 2013
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