We met Prof. Judea Pearl for the first time a few weeks ago at a Friday night dinner in Los Angeles. At first glance, it was hard to figure how special this man is. He sings, dances, drinks, and for a moment even looks like someone who doesn't take life too seriously.
But the truth, we realized, mainly after we parted, is very different. Pearl is a professor of computer science and statistics at the University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA). His résumé includes dozens of prestigious awards, and he is considered one of the fathers of artificial intelligence, who decades ago already saw the world we are heading towards. In addition, his life is marked by one tragedy that cannot be forgotten - his son, the Jewish-American journalist Daniel Pearl, was kidnapped in 2002 in Pakistan and murdered by his captors.
Our interview takes place at 11:00 pm in Los Angeles. One would think that Pearl, who celebrated his 88th birthday last week, would want to end the conversation and go to bed. But he is more alert than ever, as if he had just started his day. In general, despite everything he has been through and accomplished, he doesn't seem to have any intention of stopping anytime soon.
"There's a lot more I want to achieve," he says. "I have so many ideas in artificial intelligence. I know there are things I can do and others don't know. Also, on a societal level, I feel I have a lot to offer the Jewish world. We don't know how to defend ourselves, and express Israel's righteousness in a way that can overcome leftist opinions. I feel I can do it."
"Artificial intelligence frightens me"
When we ask Pearl about the future of artificial intelligence, it is evident that he is in a state of constant dissonance. On the one hand, this is what he works on, this is what he lives for. On the other hand, he has many concerns. "Artificial intelligence frightens me," he says. "The creature we are building now may have revolutionary ideas and it may be the Golem that turns on its creator. As a scientist, I don't spend much time on these thoughts, but perhaps I am sinning against my grandchildren if I continue working on it, instead of stopping."
To better understand his concerns, one must dive a bit into Pearl's life's work. It's hard to believe, but his American dream actually got its start in Israel. He was born and raised in Bnei Brak (we'll get to that later), and in the late 1950s began his professional career studying electrical engineering at Technion - Israel Institute of Technology. The move to the US followed; Pearl completed a master's degree in physics at Rutgers University, and a doctorate in electrical engineering at the Polytechnic Institute of Brooklyn. In 1970, he joined the UCLA School of Engineering and Applied Science, where he still serves as a professor of computer science and statistics, and as director of the Cognitive Systems Laboratory at UCLA.
In California he entered a newly dawning era: the golden age of artificial intelligence, of which, in time, he himself became one of the mainstays. During those years, the academy and the commercial market were focused on developing decision-making AI with expertise comparable to that of professionals like doctors, academic researchers, and oil prospectors. But recreating the expertise of human professionals almost never worked, as they encountered a high level of uncertainty.
This is where Pearl entered the picture. He developed the theory of Bayesian Networks, based on the following principle: to identify a certain disease it is not necessary to understand the relationship between the various symptoms, but rather, the degree of their presence in the patient's body and the degree of probability for each, so that it is possible to identify their combined appearance as, for example, malaria or AIDS. This theory, some 50 years later, won him the most prestigious award in computer science, the Turing Award.
The article, published by Pearl in 1982, laid foundations for a new era in artificial intelligence that have lasted for about 40 years. He also turned his theory into one of the fundamental principles of artificial intelligence in the 1980s, 1990s, and early 2000s; from medical analysis and bioinformatics, to classification of email, Bayesian Networks allow many disciplines to structure their data and knowledge.
But Pearl wasn't satisfied with that. Later, he generalized the theory so that it would not only assume statistical relationships between independent factors, but also provide, once and for all, an explanation of causal relationships between these factors. "I discovered virgin territory here," he says. "Actually, none of the economists, pandemic experts, and social science researchers knew how to handle the connections between cause and effect. And there is no doubt that it's an important goal to understand why a patient dies even though he received a drug that should have saved his life."
And so, in 1988, he proposed a cause and effect system based on the theory of causal and probabilistic inference, set out in his book "Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems: Networks of Plausible Inference," (Morgan Kaufmann). In 2000, he wrote a scientific book summarizing the field, "Causality: Models, Reasoning, And Inference," (Cambridge University Press), and his 2018 book, "The Book of Why: The New Science of Cause and Effect" (Basic Books,US; Penguin, UK), published in Israel as "The Hedgehog and the Fox", made the theory of causality accessible to popular science readers. In doing so, Pearl fulfilled every scientist’s dream: providing explanations for phenomena, and not attributing them to happenstance.
"The day will come when we will entertain and serve it"
Fast-forward to the present day, Pearl seems unexcited by the new wave of generative artificial intelligence, introduced in November 2022 with the OpenAI’s launch of its ChatGPT bot. Although he describes himself as an amateur user ("It helps me soften critical letters I send to my colleagues"), Pearl does not believe that the large language models on which ChatGPT and the like are based are necessarily an impressive scientific development. "These models don't derive wisdom from real world experience, but from texts written by people who already understand for themselves the connection between cause and result. In this way, it is limited to the experience and understanding of those who wrote the text."
So your claim is that generative AI is stupid?
"Generative AI, as we know it today, produces a salad of anecdotes. It looks at the texts it has read, derives associations from there, and makes a salad. I wouldn't go in the direction we are going, because I aspire to general artificial intelligence, what is known as super intelligence. I believe this will be in my lifetime, even though I'm not young.
"But we need to add to it an element that it lacks today, which is found in each and every one of us: an internal mental model that helps us explain how the world works, acquired thanks to experience gained during our lifetimes. That's why the future is a hybrid, meaning, an artificial intelligence system that works with all the existing power of large language models in finding answers to any question presented to it, but one that also contains a model of rules according to which the world works."
Going back to the beginning of our conversation, what are you afraid of, really?
"This creature may, in the future, use us like pets and we will entertain it and serve it. Yes, in my opinion, it may want to take over the world. It may, for example, decide that it would be good for it to conquer Ukraine or that it would like the United States president to serve it. It won't do it in the form of coercion: it can convince a US president that it would be in in their best interests to come serve the system, just as marketing pushes products on us that we don't need. Until that happens, artificial intelligence will be used by repressive regimes for their own purposes: Russia, China or Iran will use it for military and propaganda purposes."
Can't we dictate 'do's and don't' rules to artificial intelligence, like Isaac Asimov's "Three Laws of Robotics"?
"At one time, we thought we could give artificial intelligence rules so that it could never harm humans. But the truth is that it isn’t possible. It will bypass all limitations. We really have no tools to caution it."
"Hamas constructed intellectual tunnels on campus"
Beyond his research, ever since October 7, Pearl has been seeing, up close the rise in antisemitism on US campuses. Pro-Palestinian demonstrations, anti-Zionist lecturers, and students being discriminated against have become routine phenomena across university campuses over the past year. Pearl was not really surprised when it happened. "For years, Hamas has constructed intellectual tunnels on the campuses that operated against Israel. Already in 2008, for example, during Operation Cast Lead, there was a gathering at our university, where it was actually said that Israel was committing war crimes, and had no right to exist. The next day, this conclusion was published in the university newspaper as a fait accompli.
"At that time, I also saw that most of the lecturers within the Center for Jewish Studies were not Zionists. Today, there is not a single lecturer who is capable of lecturing on the history of Zionism in a truthful way; all of them are anti-Israel. Some said so, others kept their mouths shut over the years, but on October 7, everything was exposed. People stopped being embarrassed. Until that point, people hid, and claimed that they simply didn't like Bibi, or things like that, but today no shame attaches to saying that Israel has no right to exist."
One of the countries driving these "intellectual tunnels", according to Pearl, is Qatar. According to a report published by the Institute for the Study of Global Antisemitism and Policy (ISGAP), Qatar is the largest foreign donor to US universities, and over the years has injected billions of dollars without oversight. "I have no doubt that it plays a major role here, overtly and covertly. Qatar openly gives grants to universities without asking for anything in return. In addition, it sends over many students from Muslim countries, and gives them generous scholarships. Then, when it's necessary to take action, it provides them with lawyers and professionals who guide them on how to behave, and how to talk to reporters. They have enormous power."
Have you personally experienced antisemitism?
"The beauty of it is that I'm protected. All my life, except for my son's murder, I was protected from antisemitism, and I hardly saw it in the US. No one will dare to say anything against my Zionist activities. On the contrary, I invite them, I want them to ask me hard questions about Israel, but they aren't ready to listen. Also, in general, most people in the computer science department are protected.
"But in the social sciences, things are completely different. Unfortunately, what I hear from medical school faculty members is also unbelievable. First, the number of Jewish students there is getting smaller and smaller. Today, you'll find two or three Jewish students in a class of 200. In the past, it was something like 10% of the class, but they've managed to reduce their number drastically."
How does that happen?
"Ostensibly, discrimination against someone for being Jewish is prohibited, so no one will say that. But they find ways. For example, admissions committee members have the option of giving credit points to people whose families have suffered hardship, or did not have opportunities. It really depends on how they feel, so there's no way to criticize that.
"Additionally, what the medical students are being taught is unreasonable. Instead of talking about medicine, they are talking about how harmful Israel is to the world. Recently, some professors started to warn about the risks of employing Zionist doctors."
And the university or other professors do nothing?
"It bothers everyone, and some Jewish professors are resigning. Just last week, I heard a professor say she could no longer work under these circumstances. But the administration doesn't really care. Why? Because to deal with it, you have to say the word 'Zionist' and deal with the main problem, which is an Israel boycott. No one is willing to take that on, and the truth is, no one has the knowledge either."
Prof. Pearl is not just talk. A book he has written about Zionism and antisemitism is scheduled for publication in December. "This is our big problem: we don't know how to defend Zionism as a movement that defines our identity. Even Jewish lecturers today have no historical and conceptual knowledge of what happened before 1948. They need to be taught. They need to know how to defend, they need to learn about Arlozorov, they need to learn about the Zionist movement from Herzl to the present day. We need to understand American Jewry, and help it define and protect its identity.
"We had neglected it completely, and after October 7 we started to get back to it. I see that Jews here are beginning to understand how important Israel was, and how important it is today. They are openly returning to Zionism. They understand that it is the glue that holds us together."
What will the coming year look like on the campuses? Are you pessimistic?
"Our enemies are preparing methodically for a fierce battle over the academy's image. They will not give up. On the other hand, Jewish faculty members are also becoming organized, and we are going to give preference to Jewish and Israeli students, of course in accordance with the law. Because the scientific world is beginning to exclude Israeli researchers, our duty is to counter that. How will we do it? We can devote our free time to research work with Israelis, and give them preference in any way possible. I'm pleased that it seems as though Jewish faculty members have decided: enough is enough. October 7 made us understand what’s important and what isn’t."
Amid this atmosphere of antisemitism, the US will hold elections in two months. If you ask Pearl, there is cause for concern on all sides. "The truth is, I'm not sure about Kamala Harris. She's made some good statements and some problematic statements. I keep writing, asking her to say she is a Zionist, but unlike Biden, she hasn't said it yet. It is possible that antisemitism will increase if she is elected; the Arab vote is very important to her, she does everything she can not to upset it. This worries me. She lets questionable people guide her."
And what about the other side? Do you trust Trump?
"Trump? Oy, vey. I don't understand how the most enlightened country in the world is giving us the choice between two people like these."
"We knew Daniel was at risk but we didn't realize how much"
A tragic and defining event in Pearl's life was the murder of his son Daniel. In 2002, Daniel Pearl, the Southeast Asia bureau chief of the "Wall Street Journal," was dispatched to investigate Richard Reid, a British terrorist who was convicted of trying to blow up a passenger plane. On his way to Karachi, he was kidnapped by the National Movement for the Restoration of Pakistani Sovereignty, which demanded that the US, among other things, should release Pakistanis from American prisons. Six days later, the kidnappers beheaded him, and later distributed a video tape documenting the murder.
"It was just a nightmare," recalls Pearl. "We knew Daniel was at risk, but we didn't realize how much. At the time, there was an aura of protection around journalists, and we thought they wouldn't be harmed. In fact, he was the first journalist to be murdered in this way."
Do you remember the day you received the news?
"Of course. My late wife Ruth woke up sensing that something was wrong. She tried to call him and he didn't answer. I don't believe in telepathy and stuff like that, but there was something there. The day they informed me that they had found his video, I just didn't understand how one could go on living. I also feel a great deal of guilt for not being able to save him."
You chose not to watch the video of his murder.
"True, I don't want to look, I don't want to hear. Still, I was moved to hear his last words: 'I’m a Jewish American from Encino, California, USA. I come from a Zionist family. My father is Jewish. My mother is Jewish. And I am Jewish. Back in the town of Bnei-Brak in Israel, there is a street named after my great grandfather, Chaim Pearl, who was one of the founders of the town.'"
Over the past year, Pearl has been asked to speak to the October 7 hostage families, as someone who had inadvertently found himself in a similar situation, but he has rejected the suggestion. "I feel that I have nothing to say to them. I feel that I cannot encourage them because I represent a failure. I failed to save my son. What will I tell them? But I do see that they are doing exactly what I did: committing to a great effort in an attempt to help the nation.
"What gave me the possibility to exist and continue to live is the understanding that it is not for myself, but for something bigger than me. I am a link in a chain and it is my job to hold on. Until my son's murder, I was in my own patch, busy with equations and algorithms. This event pushed me to speak publicly, even in front of people who don't know what equations are."
"I regret leaving Israel. I wouldn't do it again"
It is very difficult to sum up Judea Pearl. He is a Jew, a professor, a researcher, and "the father of…". But above all, it seems, he is an Israeli, a true Zionist, one who was born in Bnei Brak, and witnessed the establishment of the state as a child. "I had a great childhood," he recalls. "Every chance I get, I say thank you to my teachers at Zeitlin High School in Tel Aviv. They were elite scholars, professors from Germany who came to Israel, and couldn't find academic work, so they taught at the school. They saw in us the continuation of their scientific work, and gave us everything they could. I am the product of this educational experience, which was unique in all educational history. Where can you find professors who teach in high school today?"
Do you miss Israel?
"Absolutely. I see Bnei Brak in my dreams every day. Any time someone mentions Mr. Plocker from the grocery store, it warms my heart. I really feel like I live there to this day. What's more, I know that the city has changed a lot, and that hurts me. I'm not sure they remember my grandfather, Chaim Pearl, who was one of the Zionist founders of the city. I couldn't believe that they changed the name of Herzl Street to Rabbi Shach Street. Nonetheless, my childhood was formed there."
Did you ever imagine that one day, this boy from Bnei Brak would settle in the US, and have such an impressive résumé?
"Absolutely not. I came here to do a doctorate, make a million, and then return to Israel. I'm still working on the second goal," he laughs. "In the meantime, I had children here, and we pretty much got stuck. In some ways, I regret leaving Israel. I don't know if I would do it again."
On the one hand, Pearl is a researcher who deals with causality and is immersed in equations. On the other hand, the Jewish world is in his blood. The two don't always match up, but towards the end of our conversation, Pearl tries to make the connection. "The world today is completely confused and lacks causality, especially as it relates to the Arab-Israeli conflict. For example, Abu Mazen says at the UN that we are descendants of the Khazars, and tries diverting the discussion in that direction. I argue that in defining origins, collective memory is far more important than a genetic connection. Let Abbas come and prove to me that my grandfather was a Khazari -- so what? I was with Joshua when we crossed the Jordan. This is my collective memory. Collective history is proof and belonging more than any other connection, including genetics or physical presence.
"I can recite poems that were created in the Middle East 3,000 years ago, such as the Song of the Sea. Every Israeli child can recite it. And the Palestinians? There is not a single poem from before the Nakba. Yes, I attach great importance to poems, because they are a mirror of our collective memory."
Published by Globes, Israel business news - en.globes.co.il - on September 9, 2024.
© Copyright of Globes Publisher Itonut (1983) Ltd., 2024.