The British government's decision last September to suspend 30 of 350 arms export licenses to Israel raised a troubling question: had we lost British support? Did Israel, in the current climate, let relations with a vital ally slip through its fingers?
But feelings are one thing, numbers are another: according to a report by the Campaign Against Arms Trade (CAAT) organization, defense exports to Israel approved by the UK government in 2023 totaled £17 million ($23 million). The basis of cooperation between the two countries is not the arms trade, but the coordination between their militaries in training exercises, and in moments of truth. Such a moment came when the Iranians carried out their threat and attacked Israel directly in April and October. British forces assisted Israel in intercepting the missiles. The cooperation proved itself once more.
A highly important figure in the strengthening of this military relationship is the former Chief of the Defence Staff, General (Retd.) Sir Nicholas Patrick Carter, who in December 2020, just months before completing 43 years of service in the British Armed Forces, signed an agreement with former Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. (Res.) Aviv Kochavi to strengthen defense ties between the countries. The other week, Carter returned to Israel to participate in the DefenseTech Summit, hosted by the Yuval Ne'eman Workshop for Science, Technology and Security at Tel Aviv University in collaboration with the Ministry of Defense's Directorate of Defense Research & Development (DDR&D-MAFAT).
In an exclusive interview with "Globes," Carter addresses the looming alliance between Russia, Iran and North Korea ("A coalition of hostile powers"); views dialogue with Tehran as a solution to the nuclear threat ("All conflicts end in dialogue"); and states that, for the time being, "the world is at war, but not yet in World War III."
"The change in dynamics in Syria might possibly be beneficial."
Iran’s nuclear program is at its most advanced stage ever in uranium enrichment. Data from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) indicate that, since August, Iran has accumulated 17.6 km of 60% enriched uranium, for a total of 182.3 kg. This is the equivalent of four nuclear bombs, with nuclear weapons requiring uranium enriched to about 85% or higher.
"What happened in Syria will have a big impact on Iranian decision-making," Carter says. "We need to take into account the countries involved, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates; the Emirates are good allies of Israel. This region urgently needs stability, specifically for the sake of diversifying the economies of the Arab world, because of the understanding that fossil fuels won’t last forever, and many young people need jobs. I was a fighter, and I participated in significant military operations after the terrorist attacks of September 11. We need politicians who are able to talk to each other and provide diplomatic solutions to challenging problems. The change in dynamics we saw in Syria might possibly be beneficial."
The Assad regime’s sudden collapse, which Carter says might prove a significant influence on Iran, was due to several factors. "First and foremost, the war in Ukraine affected Russia's ability to maintain forces in Syria for Assad. Also, some of Israel's operations against Hezbollah left their mark on the extent of Iran's ability to maintain the aid. The rebels are a complicated group of organizations that recognized an opportunity, when Assad's forces did not really want to fight for him. So, it’s a combination of several variables, which made for the two-week rollercoaster in Syria. It’s bad for Russia, bad for Iran, and it’s an opportunity for Turkey."
It’s clear these days that the trilateral cooperation between Moscow, Tehran and Pyongyang is closer than ever. Russia and North Korea have established a military alliance, which has Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un sending North Korean fighters to Ukraine. Meanwhile, President of Russia Vladimir Putin depends on armaments from Iran, together with missiles and munitions manufactured in North Korea. "For the first time in our lives, there is a coalition of hostile powers, cooperating politically, economically and militarily. We haven't seen this for a generation. It is dangerous, but I don't see any of the three as a real threat to the West. We are acting together, and I don't think they have any hope of realizing their ambitions."
What are the current trends in the Russia-Ukraine war?
"The new American administration is interested in finding a way to end the war. All wars end in dialogue, the trick is to know when both sides are ready for it. The Russians are starting to look fragile; what happened in Syria is not good for Russia's standing in the world, and Ukraine has also suffered greatly. There are indications that talks may take place in the coming year."
One of the big questions arising from the turmoil in Syria is whether the rebels are creating an opportunity for this region.
"Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham have recast themselves as a more acceptable entity, but that is of course still questionable, partly because the UK and the US view them as a terrorist organization. They were an offshoot of al-Qaeda, so we will continue to monitor what they are trying to create. This is just one organization, and the Kurds are still in there, there’s an ISIS presence in eastern Syria, and a new American administration coming in, in January."
"Israel is very significant in defense-tech"
General Sir Nick Carter was born in Nairobi, Kenya, in 1959. At the age of 25 he married Louise Anne Ewart; the couple have three sons and a daughter. He began his long military service in 1978. During his career, he fought in several wars, including in Bosnia, Kosovo, Iraq, and Afghanistan. In 2014 he was appointed Chief of the British General Staff, a position equivalent to the commander of the IDF Ground Forces.
His last position, from 2018 to 2021, was the Chief of the Defence Staff (CDS) of the United Kingdom, the equivalent of the IDF Chief of Staff or the US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. In this role, he served as the senior advisor to the UK Secretary of State for Defence. According to the British constitution, the armed forces have another supreme commander: the monarch, which is how Carter formed a bond with Queen Elizabeth II in her time and King Charles III today. "They want to understand our challenges, what we do, and want to demonstrate leadership. The nice thing is that they were free with me, because they knew that I would never tell what they shared with me."
Today, Carter, in collaboration with Israel's Exigent Capital Group, provides strategic consulting services to Israeli companies operating in the defense sector. The work includes providing insights and guidance to global markets. "Israel is very significant in the world of defense-tech," emphasizes Carter. "We appreciate the extraordinary innovation that Israeli defense companies exhibit, and sometimes adopt what we see in Israel. It’s impressive to see the innovation of Israeli companies, whether government or private. Israel's position vis-à-vis its neighbors makes Israeli innovation a necessity."
What’s your opinion of the Labour government's decision to suspend export licenses to Israel?
"I don’t comment on politics and Israeli-British relations; everyone knows what each country's position is. I was privileged to sign the agreement with Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi, and I think it’s successful. We cooperate in aspects of forces and development capabilities. It’s very important for both militaries to work together, share the best training, and understand together the complexity of the modern battlefield. This is a very good way to do business."
The Iron Swords War has led to increased demand for Israeli defense products. The Israeli industry attributes this growing demand to its high-quality technology, but no less to that technology being combat-proven. However, Carter says, Israel must be careful with its messaging, "because the nature of war never changes. At its core, there will always be the politics and the violent interactions between people. But we are seeing around the world that the nature of the conflict might be different. The conflict in which Israel is involved is very different from that in Ukraine. There are indeed overlapping issues in weapons and technology, but it would be a mistake to make out that they are similar.."
"We all benefited from the difficulties Israel faced "
One area in which the Israeli and British defense industries are competing head-to-head is the development of laser air defense systems. The Magen Or system, promoted by DDR&D-MAFAT’s R&D unit, with lead developer Rafael, is expected to be operational in the second half of 2025. It is expected to enter service before the British DragonFire system, which was trialed successfully earlier this year in Scotland.
The overwhelming advantage of laser interception is the cost saving: the DragonFire system is estimated at only $13 per interception, which compares with about $30,000 for Iron Dome. However, laser also has several disadvantages, most notably operational limitations in cloudy weather, haze, and fog. "I wouldn't describe it as a race. British companies seek to produce certain systems before the Israelis. I don't know who will win or which technology is right to invest in."
How extensive is security cooperation between Israel and Britain compared with the situation 50 years ago?
"Western armies have had the privilege since 1945 of not fighting against conventional adversaries in the way that Israel has been required to fight, especially in 1967 and 1973. These militaries had to view Israel as a significant and successful force in those conflicts, and we did indeed learn a lot.
"If you look at the first Gulf War, where the US and its allies kicked Saddam Hussein out of Kuwait, it was the essence of combined air and ground operations. When you think about it, much the doctrine and the means that flowed from it came from what we learned from Israel in 1967, 1973, and 1982. We all benefited from the difficulties that Israel faced and the way it resolved them."
In the technological sphere, Carter relates that he used an Israeli platform when he commanded forces in southern Afghanistan in 2009-2010. "It was very useful for the intelligence and surveillance operations that we carried out in Helmand province," he says. The former Chief of the Defence Staff acknowledges there are some similarities between the Taliban coup in Afghanistan three years ago and the current coup in Syria. "The fact that Afghan President Ashraf Ghani's army did not want to fight for him is similar to what we saw with Assad's army. This happens when a soldier does not believe he is fighting for a just and worthy cause. It’s very delicate, and, for the most part, military morale doesn’t let that happen. We analyze military power on the basis of the physical component and the morale component. Often, the morale component is the most important. What we have seen is the collapse of the morale component within Assad's army."
And within this opening that Syria has created, is World War III a likely scenario?
"The world is at war, but not yet in World War III. The nature of politics and conflicts is changing very rapidly. The democratization of information and the rapid development of technology is allowing state and non-state actors to acquire new tools and tactics to undermine our way of life, and that means we are at war."
Published by Globes, Israel business news - en.globes.co.il - on December 29, 2024.
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