To get an idea of where things are going after the signing of a ceasefire and hostage release agreement between Israel and Hamas, "Globes" spoke to General (res.) Amos Yadlin, former commander of IDF Military Intelligence and founder of strategic consultancy Mind.
What’s your view of the deal?
"The deal is morally and operationally correct. Our duty as a country is to bring the hostages back home. The mutual guarantee of the people of Israel, our social solidarity, and the beginning of the healing of Israeli society after the disaster of October 7, are very important. The knowledge on the part of every soldier, every citizen, that the State of Israel will make huge efforts to save them from the hell of the terrorist organizations is a critical ethical compass. And anyone who does not have that moral commitment should focus on the strategic compass.
"Israel has not been progressing to ‘absolute victory’ in recent months. On the contrary. Hamas is recovering, and we are paying a heavy price for the continued fighting. The fighting in Gaza is cautious and not decisive, in order not to harm the hostages and so that Hamas will not murder them as the IDF advances. Only after we bring the hostages back will we be able hit Hamas with the same intensity as we hit Hezbollah in Lebanon, where we did not have hostages. Furthermore, all the terrorists with blood on their hands and anyone who took part in the massacre will be dealt with by the Munich 72 procedure. (The reference is to Palestinian terrorists who murdered 11 Israeli athletes at the 1972 Munich Olympics and whom Israel subsequently hunted down and killed).
"If, following the return of the hostages and an end to the war, Israel proceeds towards a deal with Saudi Arabia and receives aid from the Trump administration in dealing with the Iranian nuclear program, we’ll be back to a correct order of priorities for promoting Israel’s national security."
How will the deal affect the fighting in the Gaza Strip?
"Initially, the fighting will be paused. There will be a ceasefire lasting at least 42 days in the first stage of the deal. The second stage is supposed to involve a permanent ceasefire. The disinclination to agree to ending the war prevented a deal with a similar outline in July, six months ago. We could have prevented the murder of some hostages, and saved months of maltreatment of the others."
Will it have long-term security implications?
"In the long term, the goals of the war must be completed - the end of Hamas rule and the restoration of security to the Western Negev. We must learn the lessons of the long years of restraint that led to the October 7 disaster. We must investigate the political, military and intelligence failures, learn the lessons, and implement them. Chiefly, Israel has to make clear its new policy vis-à-vis Hamas, and back it with a side agreement with the Trump administration.
"Any rocket, any move to re-arm in the Gaza Strip or build terrorist infrastructure, will allow Israel to resume the war and complete the dismantling of Hamas. The hostages deal is not the end of the battle with Hamas. The rehabilitation of the Gaza Strip has to be conditional on the removal of Hamas from the Gaza Strip."
What can Israel do if Hamas breaches the deal?
"Israel has many diplomatic and military options. Israel will control the Gaza Strip border crossings, the humanitarian aid, the possibilities for rehabilitation, and of course military activity. We have seen that whoever takes the initiative can achieve extraordinary things, and it’s important that next time we aren’t surprised but that we surprise."
What message does this send to our enemies. Does it not show them that it’s worthwhile abducting Israelis?
"The attempt to abduct Israelis is not new. It has topped our enemies’ efforts since the 1970s. What they now understand in Gaza is the catastrophic price they paid for the abduction. Gaza is destroyed, with about 50,000 killed and a hundred thousand injured. Gaza has sustained more explosives than the atom bomb on Hiroshima. 60% of the families are without a home fit to live in, and most of the infrastructure is destroyed. The whole Middle East sees the price."
What do you say to those who argue that the deal is catastrophic - Bezalel Smotrich for example?
"The catastrophe was the neglect that took place on October 7. Besides those responsible for the intelligence and operational failure, Smotrich and the government of which he is a member are partners in the catastrophe of 900 citizens killed - women and children - 300 fallen soldiers, and more than 240 Israeli citizens taken hostage. The opponents of the deal had three strong arguments that might have been acceptable last winter: the damage to Israel’s deterrence; the possibility that Hamas would claim victory - Sinwar emerging from a tunnel making a ‘V’ sign with his fingers; and the third argument - the fear of ‘a thousand Sinwars’ who would act against us and bring about the murder and rape of thousands of Israelis.
"All three arguments have become very much weaker, and are not valid against the moral and strategic imperative of bringing the hostages back. Today, Israel’s deterrence is stronger than it was on October 6, after the heavy blow that the IDF has dealt Hezbollah, success in hostilities with Iran, the collapse of the Assad regime, and the way Hamas has been hit. Sinwar cannot emerge with a victory sign; he has been eliminated, together with Deif, Haniyeh, and many in the Hamas leadership, Gaza is destroyed. If we have learned the lesson of the policy of restraint and the addiction to quiet of the past decade, none of the ‘Sinwars’ who will be released will rebuild the Nukhba force."
Published by Globes, Israel business news - en.globes.co.il - on January 19, 2025.
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