Will the current Israeli cabinet have enough time to push through the Israel-Lebanon maritime border agreement before the November 1 elections? Israel's Prime Minister Yair Lapid said that tomorrow he will convene the Ministerial Committee on National Security Affairs (State Security Cabinet) to discuss the matter followed by a special cabinet meeting to approve the agreement in principle but in a non-binding way. The agreement will then be discussed by the Knesset over two weeks for MKs comments, although they will not vote on the matter. Only after that will the cabinet formally ratify the agreement. With such a crowded timetable, it will be no simple task to approve the agreement before the elections.
The regulations of the cabinet's work state that "a minister who wishes to submit a proposal for a decision regarding the ratification of an international treaty should deliver to the Knesset secretary, two copies of the text of the treaty translated into Hebrew and its main points, two weeks in advance, in order to bring it to the attention of Knesset Members."
The statutes state that this section will not apply "if in the opinion of the presenting minister, with the agreement of the Minister of Foreign Affairs and the Minister of Justice, the production of copies of the treaty to the Knesset is prevented for reasons of urgency or confidentiality." But due to Minister of Justice Gideon Sa'ar's opposition to granting any reduction, the cabinet will have to wait two weeks from the date the agreement is put before the Knesset to allow MKs to study the agreement's details.
This means that the cabinet will have to wait two weeks from when the Knesset plenum convenes before it can ratify the agreement. It is highly exceptional for the Knesset to meet during the intermediary days of the Sukkot holiday, especially as most MKs are on vacation in Israel and abroad.
In addition, minimum notice is required before convening the plenary session for a non-quorum event. Will the Attorney General allow the Knesset Speaker to convene the plenum during the Sukkot holiday? There is some doubt. I do not know that there are clear rules in this matter, so the question remains open and subject to the discretion of the Knesset Secretariat and the Knesset's legal counsel.
Assuming the fastest possibility for the cabinet and the draft agreement will be ready to put before the Knesset this Thursday, even though we still don't have a "final agreement on file". This means that the cabinet vote would be just a few days before the election on November 1 and this is not the only problem for the cabinet.
Two Supreme Court petitions
Two petitions have been filed with the Supreme Court against the cabinet regarding the agreement. The cabinet has to respond by October 27, five days before the elections. This would be the earliest date the government could ratify the agreement if the draft is placed before the Knesset this week. Instead of being able to ratify the agreement, the cabinet will have to wait for the Supreme Court's decision on the petitions.
In practice, the state does not determine facts on the ground when there is a pending petition. If the Supreme Court rules against the cabinet, then of course there will be no agreement signing ceremony. If the Supreme Court does not hurry to decide, then of course there will also be no ceremony. It can be assumed that the petitions will not be dismissed outright without any discussion. There is also the question of interpretation regarding the applicability of a Basic Law and the potential need for a referendum, which has never previously been discussed in the Supreme Court.
So it's not an unreasonable scenario at all that the petitions will end up being heard before an expanded panel of judges, maybe even 11 judges. Of course, this cannot happen overnight. At the earliest, a hearing will be scheduled for October 30, just two days before the elections. After the hearing, the Supreme Court will have to decide the issue within a particularly tight time frame.
It is clear that the hearing itself will not be short, and will also include a factual discussion on a one-party basis in which the security aspects of the agreement will be discussed and an explanation of the necessity to sign the agreement, even before election day. The optimal option from the cabinet's point of view is that the Supreme Court will reject the petitions immediately, after the hearing of the verdict without any real arguments, in light of the urgency of the situation.
This would give the cabinet just one day in which to ratify the agreement, October 31 - hours before the polls open. Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara intends to defend this option. But would the Supreme Court allow the ratification of an agreement with security, political and economic consequences deep within the final day of the outgoing government, just hours before the polls open?
Published by Globes, Israel business news - en.globes.co.il - on October 11, 2022.
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