The surprise in Israel at US President Donald Trump’s decision to reach a truce with the Houthi rebels in Yemen represents a predictable diplomatic failure. There is no disputing the fact that this US administration contains some extremely pro-Israel figures, but there is also no disputing the fact that the basis of their policy is putting the US first.
From their point of view, the Houthi challenge to Israel is not the same as the challenge to the US. Iran’s proxy in Yemen is troubling Israel because of the war in the Gaza Strip, whereas the Americans are mainly disturbed by the attacks on merchant shipping in the Red Sea, and the harm to the supply chain. As far as Trump is concerned, if he can once again shorten the distance between east and west for the major shipping lines and restore it to the route by which 14% of world trade passed before the war, he has done the necessary.
On a regional level, this helps Egypt, which has been losing some $800 million monthly because of ships routing away from the Suez Canal. It represents a blow to Israel, however. The shipping companies currently sending their ships round the Cape of Good Hope will find it hard to refuse to the demand by the US president and European leaders that they should that they should shorten the supply chain and reduce costs by once again sailing via the Red Sea, while the Houthis have made clear that they will continue to attack Israel, which leads to a situation in which the major shipping lines are liable to avoid coming to Israel, turning the threat of a blockade into a real danger.
Trump, for his part, is not concerned about either Egypt or Israel. He seeks to serve US interests. The US is Israel’s best friend, but it doesn’t owe Israel anything. The US president released consignments of armaments that his predecessor Joe Biden blocked both because it served a close friend, Israel, and because it meant revenue for the US defense industry.
Next week, Trump will make a first visit to the Middle East, but, as currently planned, his tour will omit Israel. Its first stop will be Saudi Arabia, the US defense industry’s largest customer, accounting for 12% of all US arms exports between 2020 and 2024. He will also visit the UAE and Qatar. Israelis love to hate Qatar, to a large extent rightly, but Qatar hosts the important US military base at Al Udeid.
It is clear that the Iranian nuclear program, an existential threat to the State of Israel, is far from being a joint concern of Jerusalem and Washington. The US administration is formulating an agreement that amounts to a slightly upgraded JCPOA (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action from which the US withdrew in Trump’s first administration), with US supervision, but a liar is a liar is a liar. Anyone who thinks that the Iranian regime which tried to conceal its programs in the nuclear sphere after the 201 agreement won’t do the same again is misled, and misleading.
Trump’s truce with the Houthis is a kind of mutual Iranian-US gesture in the process leading to a nuclear agreement. The Islamic Republic is signaling to Trump that it controls the Houthis, and how it can thereby serve his interests, if he serves its interests. Trump doesn’t care about Yemen or the Yemenis, and he has no problem in avoiding moves to bring down the Houthis, as long as they stay quiet.
That outlook raises concerns about US military aid to Israel. Just as Israel has been complacent about US perception of the Iranian and Houthi threats, it is taking its time over negotiations on renewal of the agreement on US aid. The current memorandum, which came into force in 2019, expires in 2028, and a comparison with the negotiations on that agreement, which was signed in 2016, shows that Israel is currently behind schedule. As mentioned, the US doesn’t owe Israel anything, and if the current passive approach continues, in 2029, for the first time in 30 years, Israel could find itself with no guaranteed US military aid.
Published by Globes, Israel business news - en.globes.co.il - on May 7, 2025.
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