In the Second Lebanon War, Israel could only dream of a missile interception system like Iron Dome. In that war, Hezbollah was able to kill an average of one Israeli for every 75 Katyusha rockets. An analysis by missile expert Uzi Rubin of the latest round of fighting between the IDF and the terrorist organizations in Gaza, when Iron Dome was deployed, found that it took an average of 375 rockets to kill one Israeli - a fivefold reduction in fatalities.
Rubin reached this conclusion after calculating the number of successful interceptions of rockets and taking into account the number of rockets that fell in residential areas and were not intercepted by Iron Dome for various reasons. Grad and Kassam rockets, Rubin points out, are not a very accurate weapon and far from every rocket fired on residential areas causes fatalities or even any damage.
Rubin concluded that the exceptionally few hits on people or property in the fighting earlier this year was the result of a clear reduction in the risk of lethal hits and insists that it was not random.
In the analysis that he undertook for Bar Ilan University's Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies Rubin describes the last round of fighting in Gaza as "an absolutely formative event in Israel's active defense system. The success proved to doubters that it was possible to intercept and destroy rockets in flight and that it is possible to do so with 'blue and white' Israeli technology, and that Israel's borders need no longer be hostage to every Palestinian band in Gaza with rockets." Rubin previously headed the Missile Defense Administration of the Ministry of Defense and led the Arrow anti ballistic missile project.
Not a dress rehearsal
Rubin clarifies that this tactical success cannot serve as a strategic solution for missiles from Iran and Syria and some of the more accurate and destructive missiles held by Hezbollah in Lebanon. He said, "The latest escalation was not a dress rehearsal for an all-out war and we must not see it as such." He added, "The scenarios for a war range from light such as the firing of missiles just from Iran to more serious such as missiles from all Iran's allies. In order for Israel to come out of every possible scenario with minimal damage, Israel needs a multi-layer defense system including the Arrow 2 and Arrow 3, Magic Wand and Iron Dome. Only two of these systems exist while the other two have yet to reach the interception trial stage. The road ahead is still long but Iron Dome has proven that it is negotiable."
Rubin's analysis also finds that for every Grad rocket that was intercepted in flight, an average of two and a half Tamir interception missiles were fired. This requires an average of half an interception missile more than the IDF expected with initial assessments predicting two interception missiles for every rocket intercepted.
In Rubin's opinion, there is room for improving the system in order to reduce consumption of interception missiles in the future to minimum levels, and close to a one on one ratio.
Rubin also relates to being equipped by Rafael Advanced Defense Systems Ltd. interception systems (Iron Dome) and says that it is advisable to equip with additional batteries. In a broader war, he says, it is possible that the interceptors could be used to protect emergency stores, sensitive installations and air force bases to allow them to carry on fighting even under rocket attack.
"The most encouraging part of the successful defense of Beersheva and Ashdod," Rubin said, "is that it is possible to well protect air force and naval bases and maintain the IDF's attack capability in the face of an onslaught from Syria, Lebanon and the Gaza strip. In order to realize this capability, far more than the small number of operational Iron Dome batteries are required and a significant number of interceptor systems must be produced."
Uncle Sam pays
The US understands this need. On the basis of an analysis of the last round of fighting in Gaza, the US Defense Department spokesman has already put out a special announcement on behalf of Defense Secretary Leon Panetta that he will bring to Congress for approval a budget to equip Israel with more Iron Dome batteries.
Last year, the US transferred $205 million to Israel to order the first Iron Dome batteries from Rafael. The Israel Air Force currently has four Iron Dome batteries operational with two more being manufactured. Four of these sis systems were purchased with US money. The good news coming from the US is that there is a proposal in the House of Representatives to allocate Israel an additional budget of $680 million for the purchase of Iron Dome batteries by 2015 so that Israel can be more substantial equipped with the advanced rocket interception system.
Published by Globes, Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on April 24, 2012
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