For all practical purposes Israel is at war with the Hamas government of the Gaza Strip. What the final outcome will be is unknown at present, but deciding on the appropriate actions depends to a large extent on discovering what motivated the leadership of Hamas to engage Israel in a wholesale fashion at this particular time.
One reason might well be to force the hand of President Morsi of Egypt. The new Egyptian government since coming to office has verbally supported Hamas, but in practice has taken actions contrary to Hamas's interests, particularly closing smuggling tunnels between Egypt and Gaza. Since the missile onslaught Morsi's verbal support of Hamas has escalated and the Egyptian ambassador to Israel has been withdrawn, but nothing further of a tangible nature has occurred, and the Hamas assault can only jeopardize other sources of support, such as Qatar.
Another motivation might be to show up the Abbas administration in the West Bank. Abbas, faced with financial ruin and reportedly terrified of being assassinated, has recently been making conciliatory noises towards Israel, at one point even indicating a willingness to give up the so-called "right of return". Hamas may be demonstrating that although they may also be thieves, at least they are taking direct action against Israel.
Finally, the phenomenon may simply mark the ascendancy of the more militant wing of Hamas, in the face of recent actions by Islamic Jihad and other more extremist groups, which Hamas was unable and/or unwilling to prevent.
Whatever the reasons may be, an interesting observation resulting from the onslaught is that Israel has received greater external support than usual. This is probably due to more effective Israeli public relations as well as the totally egregious manner in which Hamas began the confrontation. Of course, those whom the Soviets in their heyday used to refer to as their "useful idiots" in the Western world are out in force blaming Israel for everything, but at least the balance appears to be changing for the better. This needs to be followed up by studying the effective actions of such excellent spokespersons as Ambassador Michael Oren in Washington.
The near-total disarray of the Arab world at this point can only be helpful to Israel, coupled with shared concern over developments in Iran. Paradoxically, Israel would seem to be in a stronger position at present than it has been for a long time.
Norman A. Bailey, Ph.D., is Adjunct Professor of Economic Statecraft at The Institute of World Politics, Washington, DC, and a lecturer at The Israeli National Defense College (MABAL), 2011-2012 session.
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on November 20, 2012
© Copyright of Globes Publisher Itonut (1983) Ltd. 2012