Yair Lapid is personally in a position resembling that of MK Amir Peretz, when he was Labor Party chairman in 2006. Lapid was elected by the battered middle class, which sees Yesh Atid as the shield against the government further using it to bankroll other sectors of the population. That is why Lapid must stand by the financial faucet.
Peretz's biggest political mistake when he headed the Labor Party was to forego the finance portfolio in favor of defense in Ehud Olmert's government. Peretz had the economic viewpoint of the Histadrut (General Federation of Labor in Israel), and for years pushed a socioeconomic agenda that ultimately brought him to the leadership of the party. But at the moment of political truth, he gave up holding the country's economic reins for dreams of glory as Israel's defense minister.
The results of Peretz's decision are well known, and written in the history books: he was partly blamed for the failures of the 2006 Second Lebanon War, which combined with watching maneuvers through binoculars with the eye-covers still on, destroyed his favorable public reputation. This resulted in the waning of his political career, which was only partly restored with the credit given during Operation Pillar of Defense for his involvement in promoting the Iron Dome anti-missile system.
Yair Lapid, the big winner of the 2013 elections, is in Amir Peretz's situation in 2006. The media headlines and speculation give Lapid the foreign affairs portfolio in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's next government. It is true that the position of foreign minister would give Lapid a lot of prestige. For Netanyahu, it would be a good appointment which would present Israeli society's other moderate and pretty face. But Lapid should accept Avigdor Liberman's advice rather than the suggestions of journalists who assemble coalitions before the negotiations have even started.
Lapid now has a golden opportunity to focus his electoral power as finance minister, and thereby become the deciding factor in changing the country's economic dialogue. As minister of finance in the new government, he can protect the education budget, advance housing reform, learn about the defense budget's fat from up close, prioritize welfare payments, and more.
During the election campaign, Lapid promised his voters to protect the middle class's economic interests, while keeping his diplomatic positions hazy. Therefore, serving as foreign minister would be a less natural continuity of his campaign platform. Yesh Atid's voters hope that other parties will sit on the budget tap than the ones who have held that position until now.
Israel's economic fragility
If Lapid spends the coming years visiting the world's capitals 100 days a year, he will find it hard to build the personal, financial, and physical nationwide infrastructure for his new party and strengthen it over time. He is liable to wake up in the next elections with a battered political reputation on one hand and the loss of ground on the other, which could turn Yesh Atid into another one-election party of the kind we have seen more than once in Israel's history.
Lapid's voters want to seen him as their ambassador to Israel's economy, not as the Ministry of Foreign Affairs' policy spokesman on foreign television. There are other worthy political figures for that job.
Unlike others, I am not worried about Lapid's lack of economic experience, and I hope that Lapid is not worried either. The serving Minister of Finance, Yuval Steinitz, is not a graduate of higher education in economics, but carried out his duties acceptably, so we are not talking about a threshold condition for this important job.
But I am not sure that Netanyahu is ready to hand over the country's economic reins to an opinionated and activist finance minister, and would prefer offering Lapid the foreign affairs portfolio. But Lapid should take care of his personal and party's interests and represent his voters in accordance with the spirit of his election campaign.
The author is the chief strategist for the Ayalon Group
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on January 27, 2013
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