Moving to Tel Aviv and living in the big city is often a stage in the lives of many young people. Being the economic center of Israel, it is clear why Tel Aviv is a magnet for young people from around the country. However, new data reveal that in recent years, the picture has been reversed. In 2018 and 2019 more Israelis moved to Tel Aviv than left it, but since 2020 more people have been leaving it, and the trend is only increasing. In the most recent figures for 2022, almost 7,000 more people left the city than moved to it, according to new data from Tel Aviv-Yafo Municipality.
The Covid pandemic drove many out of the big cities, and remote work made this economically viable. This trend continued even more strongly in 2022. It is possible that housing prices, which already reached an all-time high then, pushed many away from Tel Aviv. Every year since 2020, the number of net leavers has only been increasing.
Although in most years Tel Aviv suffers from negative net migration, the latest figures show the most extreme negative migration that has occurred for decades. The last time such a strong negative migration was recorded, in absolute numbers, was in 1997, when almost 8,000 more people left than moved to the city. Even when you calculate this in relation to the population of Tel Aviv, 2022 was a particularly extreme year. 14.9 people left the city for every 1,000 residents. The last time there was such a high rate was in 1999. In general, the 1990s was a time when Tel Aviv was not a sought-after city to live in and many left. But over the last decade the trend had been changing, which makes 2020-2022 especially unusual.
Natural growth
Even so, the number of residents in Tel Aviv is still on the rise. In the five years between 2018 and 2022 the population of Tel Aviv rose from 452,000 to 475,000. Tel Aviv-Yafo Municipality economic and social research center director Lea Ashuach explains, "From a long-term perspective, migration to Tel Aviv is net negative. In the 1990s, for example, many thousands left the city each year. Nevertheless, population growth is positive, and today the city has a population of almost 480,000 - a record number since its founding. This is due to natural growth, meaning births minus deaths, and from the entry of new people into the city."
However, on further analysis it can be seen that the number of children aged 0-4 in the city has actually decreased from 34,000 in 2018 to 32,000 in 2022. Regarding new immigrants, in 2022 over 9,600 people immigrated to Tel Aviv from other countries, the highest number since 1993. This is a dramatic jump compared to previous years, and is possibly connected to the Russia-Ukraine war that broke out in 2022. In total, including departures, the balance of international immigration to Tel Aviv is 8,900 this year.
Why is this happening? Ashuach says, "It is difficult to give one factor that leads to the net negative migration. It is also related to life cycles, in which more young people enter then leave, and the opposite for older people." 20-29 year olds come into the city, and in 2022 over 9,000 entered Tel Aviv, and about 4,500 left. On the other hand, in older age groups, the situation is quite different. Only 5,700 30-44 year olds entered the city, while almost 11,000 left - logical considering the cost of living in the city, combined with the stage in life when children usually come into the picture. Among those over 45, the ratio is similar, with 2,800 entering and 5,100 leaving. The especially young age group (0-19) also has many more people leaving than entering; These children are probably moving together with their parents who are leaving the city.
This phenomenon is also common in other big cities worldwide. A study in April 2024 indicated similar trends in Canada's major cities with researchers finding that there too, the departure from these cities accelerated following the Covid pandemic.
The hypothesis that rising housing prices accelerate outward migration is strengthened when examining the various neighborhoods in the city, with an emphasis on internal migration between neighborhoods. While the city center and the Old North suffer from a very negative internal migration, the outer districts such as Ramat Hahayal, north of the River Yarkon and Jaffa actually saw quite positive migration. Ashuach stresses, "In the coming years, the trend may reverse and we will see positive net migration, due to the massive construction in the northwest of the city, in the former Sde Dov area. When there is extensive construction in Tel Aviv, people come into the city."
Residential construction: 15,000 apartments under construction
The number of housing units in the city is slowly increasing. Between 2019 and 2023, the number of homes rose by 5% from 211,000 to 222,000 - approximately the rate of population growth in the city. In accordance with national trends, apartments are also becoming larger, and accordingly built-up residential areas increased by 6.7% over the same period.
A particularly impressive jump in construction was registered in Tel Aviv's business district, on the western side of Ayalon, which is not characterized by many residential areas. Between 2019 and 2023, this district will see a rise from about 5,200 apartments to about 7,500, up 44% in just five years. However, even after construction, this is the district with the fewest residential units. In first place in the sector of housing units is the Old North with over 37,000 units, followed by the east of the city and north of the Yarkon.
In terms of building permits, there has been an impressive rise in recent years. 3,128 new apartments were approved in 2017, jumping to 6,502 new apartments approved in 2022. The figure fell slightly to 5,339 in 2023.
The Tel Aviv-Yafo Municipality district plan has approved massive development in the Kikar Hamedina area with over 3,200 housing units under construction, while in the nearby District 4 (the new north) over 5,500 housing units are under construction. Over 2,000 additional housing units have already received construction approval, and are waiting for the start of building. In total, there are over 15,000 housing units currently under construction in Tel Aviv, and that pace that has been increasing in recent years.
Tel Aviv-Yafo Municipality said, "We do not know how to explain this net negative migration. There are probably a range of reasons. As economic and social research center director Lea Ashuach pointed out in the interview that if you look by age groups, the young have a positive balance and the rest of the groups have a negative balance. The trend according to age groups has been maintained throughout the years."
Published by Globes, Israel business news - en.globes.co.il - on July 14, 2024.
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