In August 2023, when the world looked a little different, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant visited the northern border. "I warn [Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan] Nasrallah not to make a mistake," Gallant said then. "If, God forbid, an escalation or conflict develops here, we will send Lebanon back to the Stone Age." A year later, Israel has not carried out that threat, at least for the time being. Still, looking at Lebanon in recent weeks, a return to the Stone Age does not seem an idle threat.
And no, this is not about the ongoing war with Hezbollah, which moved up a notch last week, when the IDF launched a pre-emptive strike on missiles and rockets aimed at strategic targets in Israel. This is mainly about what happened about two weeks ago, on August 17, when Lebanon's electric corporation, Électricité du Liban (EDL), announced a complete power shutdown across the country.
"After exploiting all the other options to extend the duration of power production to the maximum possible, the company's last power plant has ceased power supply across all Lebanese territories, due to a lack of fuel, and with that the power supply to all of Lebanon has been completely halted," the statement said. The company further stated that this would affect essential facilities such as the airport, port, water pumps, sewage, and prisons.
Ostensibly, this event could be to Israel’s benefit. If it is really decided to send Lebanon back to prehistory, as Gallant said, it wouldn't take much work. But after reviewing the initial, basic implications, several questions remain. How much does this event really hurt Hezbollah, and does it perhaps actually strengthens its position? Does the precarious situation in Lebanon deprive Israel of a possible pressure lever in the future, since is no electric power anyway, and perhaps the situation should signal to Israel to stop the fighting, and let Beirut sink into its own bog?
"The Arab oil countries didn’t volunteer to help"
"Ever since the civil war, which began in 1975 and ended in 1990, the condition of the power infrastructure in Lebanon has been atrocious, and it has mainly relied on four power plants," says Dr. Jacques Neria, a senior researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Foreign and Security Affairs (JCFA), an expert on Lebanon, and a former political adviser to Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin. "Even after the war, it did not invest in infrastructure and power plants for years, because of sectarian rivalries and internal disputes, and relied on the existing plants and foreign solutions." For example, in 2012, Turkish energy company Karpowership signed a contract with EDL and put in place two offshore power plants that supplied 25% of all the country’s electricity.
But Lebanon’s economic reality changed dramatically in 2019. "The crisis arose mainly as a result of the civil war in Syria," explains Dr. Neria. "Saudi Arabia and other countries wanted to overthrow the Assad regime, so they tried to fight Hezbollah, and withdrew funds from the banks in Lebanon. As a result, the banks had no liquidity, creating a huge crisis." Lebanon thus had no money left for fuel, and in 2021, Karpowership decided to terminate its contract.
"Since then, Lebanon has essentially become a country of generators," says Dr. Neria. "Today, there’s no home in Lebanon that doesn’t have a generator for electricity supply. Fuel comes mainly from smugglers who cross the border and deliver it to local mafias with political ties. A veritable regime of the machers. But at the same time, the economic situation continued to deteriorate. Of the four main power plants, two are completely out of commission, and the remaining two - Deir Ammar in northern Lebanon and Zaharani in the south - were operating on their last drops of fuel.
"In recent years, the Lebanese have turned to the Iraqis. Although Iraqi fuel oil has a high level of sulfur, and is not suited to the Lebanese power plants, they took it, and sold it to a third party in return for fuels that are suitable for Lebanon. In the end, the Lebanese were unable to pay for this either. You must understand that in 2019 one dollar was worth 1,500 Lebanese pounds; today it's about 90,000 pounds. A few months ago, when the Lebanese owed more than 1.5 billion dollars, the Iraqis decided to stop supplying fuel. Since then, the electric supply has declined till it reached three hours a day. Now that's over too."
Dr. Carmit Valensi, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) at Tel Aviv University and the Head of the Northern Arena Program, explains that the crisis is not only over electricity. "Since 2019, Lebanon has been on a rapid downward slide to insolvency. We follow the Lebanese on social media, and it’s really evident in their quality of life. They talk about hunger, poverty, and a lack of electric power, water, and basic services. In the past two years, the situation has visibly been pretty bleak. A year ago, there was a story about citizens robbing banks to get money. They live mainly on funds from abroad and humanitarian aid from the West. Even in routine times they’re used to four or five hours of electricity a day. Now, with the electric company’s announcement, the country's basic installations have been damaged, and the citizens have even been asked to reduce water consumption."
This is nothing new for the Lebanese. The country has been blacked out several times in the last four years, and it’s political situation also has an impact on that. "Lebanon is a country that does not function as a country," explains Prof. Eyal Zisser, Vice Rector of Tel Aviv University and an expert on Lebanon. "This is a constant reality, but it has certainly escalated in the last decade, during which the tensions and disputes have intensified to the point where there is no president, no parliamentary elections, no functioning state institutions. Everyone does whatever they want. The obvious result is instability. This has led to a situation in which Lebanon's traditional sources of income - such as tourism and trade - have gone backwards."
So what are they doing now? Last week, an Algerian ship carrying 30,000 tons of fuel oil arrived on Lebanon’s shores to provide a temporary solution. Dr. Neria, nonetheless, is unmoved. "This will be enough for exactly two hours of electricity a day with huge breaks. Lebanon needs a minimum of 100-150 thousand tonnes of fuel oil per month, for emergencies, for hospitals, and for prisons. It should also be noted that, apart from Algeria, none of Arab oil countries intervened. No one volunteered to provide fuel."
Amatzia Baram, professor emeritus in the Department of the History of the Middle East and founder and director of the Center for Iraq Studies at the University of Haifa, concludes the situation will not improve much. "Algeria does not have long-term agreements with Lebanon, and even if the Iraqis agree to help, in the end, they also need the money and Lebanon has no way to pay. Everything there is on the point of collapse."
$2 billion dollars lost since the war began
To understand how the situation affects or changes the balance of power with Israel, one must first understand how the power outages affect Hezbollah, the terrorist organization against which Israel has been fighting in the north since October 7. "The event really doesn’t affect them," explains Dr. Valensi. "Hezbollah enjoys independent sources of income - Iran, donations, and the underground economy."
"Iran regularly supplies Hezbollah with fuel directly," agrees Prof. Baram. "Hezbollah has really created a total autonomy in Lebanon -- economic, military, media -- they have their own banks, even supermarkets. In this case, they also have their own generators to make sure that everything continues to function. It's really a system within a system. They may have plunged Lebanon into complete chaos, but they themselves are not chaotic at all."
One clear example of this autonomy was the day before the power outages, on August 16, when Hezbollah released a video revealing an underground facility for storing advanced Imad 4 precision missiles. Although the power supply in the country is shaky even in normal times, the tunnels are fully illuminated. "This generated a lot of criticism on Lebanese social networks," says Dr. Valensi. "There were claims that while the citizens live in gloom, Hezbollah is living the good life."
Indeed, this seems to be one of the main effects of the blackouts on Hezbollah: rising anti-Nasrallah sentiment. "We are beginning to identify, in a rather interesting way, growing criticism of the organization," continues Dr. Valensi. "For a month now, people have been saying that Hezbollah is endangering Lebanon’s stability, but now that criticism has become stronger because of the power outages. Some even claim that they are sending Lebanon back to the Stone Age and overloading the national infrastructure because of the war with Israel."
And how does Hezbollah deal with such claims ?
"At the moment, we don't see how this puts pressure on it, but as an organization that aspires to be a state entity and protect the Lebanese interest - it's clear that they don't like it. As the social pressure increases, it will affect Hezbollah. However, even if the pressure increases and there are protests - I don't see how it will push it to the brink and force it to stop the war. It's not a game changer, but it can be a pressure lever."
Added to this pressure lever is the economic price paid by the Lebanese. A report broadcast last week on Lebanese channel Murr Television (MTV) revealed that an all-out war could cost the Lebanese economy $3 billion in direct and indirect losses per month, which would trigger a downturn for several years. On the basis of this forecast, MTV estimates that, since the start of the fighting, the loss amounts to $2 billion.
Prof. Baram adds the political consideration: "In 2022, there were elections in Lebanon, and Hezbollah lost its majority in the parliament. Today, neither Hezbollah nor the opposition has a majority. There is no doubt that Hezbollah is afraid of losing this balance in the next elections. As the war continues, we see more and more parties are beginning to show signs of opposition to the organization. If this indeed happens and an anti-Hezbollah government is elected, it may implement UN Resolution 1701, which also calls for the organization’s disarmament. This will be absolutely terrible for them."
Why? Can anyone really dismantle Hezbollah ?
"On the one hand, they hold the guns, so no one can confront them. But Hezbollah also knows what Napoleon’s foreign minister Prince Talleyrand said: You can do many things with bayonets except sit on them. If there’s a war with Israel that destroys Lebanon, I have no doubt that in the next elections they will lose the balance. This worries them."
On the other hand, there are also those who claim the power outages only strengthen Hezbollah within its own circles. "Right now, Hezbollah can point to the Lebanese government and say that it is unable to supply fuel to the country," says Dr. Neria. "Hezbollah has its audiences and in certain areas in southern Lebanon they provide electricity. This event only reinforces their base."
No electricity, but Israel could destroy other things
When all’s said and done, if Israel wants to bring Lebanon into the war, it seems that it wouldn’t have much work to do. After all, the infrastructure there is shaky anyway. On the other hand, this may also have a negative effect, and Israel has lost a possible pressure lever. "What would you do? What would you destroy? The electricity infrastructure is already gone," Dr. Neria explains. "You want to attack Lebanon? What Lebanon is there? It’s been wrecked for so long -- declaring war on it is meaningless."
"They have nothing left to lose," agrees Dr. Zisser. "How does Nasrallah put it: ‘Cut off my electricity? There’s no electricity here anyway.’ So he’s able to maneuver, and gains and losses are measured in other terms."
So, should Israel assume there will be no war against Lebanon? That it’s all versus Hezbollah?
"No, I think we will have to attack Lebanon. Attacking state institutions is relevant in that Hezbollah will have to stop hiding behind the state. Today, for example, there is a Lebanese army observation post that assists Hezbollah, and we don’t attack it. I don't think that that will make a fundamental difference, but it is absolutely part of winning".
Although shutting down electric power may not really be a pressure lever, Prof. Baram points out there are things that can be done against the Lebanese state. "If Israel destroys the bridges and attacks the water infrastructure - it can certainly hurt. In general, one of the good things about the power outages is that it brings home to the Lebanese that the war will not help them progress. Even without the war, they have no way to bring in money."
Could it be that, for Israel, it’s worth waiting a few years? It seems as though the situation in Lebanon is not going to improve.
"Wait? And maybe Hezbollah will grow stronger during these years? I don't think Hezbollah will collapse, and even if it does, it will be a decades-long process. In the end, Israel must ask itself where it wants to go. There is no point in hitting, getting hit, and in the end everything remaining the same. You have to ask yourself what it is you want."
Published by Globes, Israel business news - en.globes.co.il - on September 1, 2024.
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