"Good morning to you Jordanian mother, hello to you Israeli mother. The peace that was born today gives you great hope that the son that was born to you will no longer know war, and you will not know sorrow." These words were spoken by the late Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin during the signing ceremony for the Israel-Jordan peace agreement, 30 years ago next month. Looking back, we can say that Rabin was right - the Jordanian border is considered one of Israel's quietest and safest borders and defense cooperation between the countries, detailed later, demonstrates the importance of the agreement.
Despite this, earlier this month, we were given a reminder of how easily this silence can be shattered, when a terrorist arrived at the Allenby Bridge border crossing and murdered three Israelis - employees of the Israel Airports Authority. If that was not bad enough, the terrible attack was celebrated in the streets of the Jordanian capital with candy handed out, mass demonstrations, chants of "death to Israel" and burning Israeli flags.
One might have thought that this was a one-off event, but the general election held in the country earlier this month may indicate that the reality in the Hashemite kingdom is more complex and worrying. The Islamic Action Front party has grown significantly stronger, obtaining 31 seats out of 138 seats and becoming the largest party in the parliament. It should be taken into account that Iranian elements are constantly trying to influence the kingdom, and even inside Jordan there is a Palestinian majority that has been radicalizing during the war. Now the question is where all this is going, and above all, can the State of Israel sleep peacefully along its longest border?
Israel-Jordan border
The Israel-Jordan border stretches 309 kilometers from Eilat in the south to Hamat Gader in the north. There are three border crossings: the Allenby crossing to Aqaba just north of Eilat; the Allenby Bridge mainly serving the Palestinians in Judea and Samaria; and the Jordan River Bridge just east of Bet Shean.
Jezreel Valley Academic College head of the Middle East Studies Program Dr. Ido Zelkovitz tells "Globes," "The State of Israel is perhaps making peace with the Arab states but not with the Arab citizens. From the point of view of Jordanian citizens, Israel has never been perceived as a genuine partner or genuine political entity with the right to exist. In practice, large parts of the country still see us as the enemy."
University of Haifa, Department of Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies lecturer Dr. Iris Fruchter-Ronen adds, "The average Jordanian is no fan of Israel. We have to distinguish between peace and normalization - we have peace with them but no normal relations. There are surveys in which 80% of Jordanians oppose normalization with Israel. And this is indeed what is happening - today there is no cooperation in the fields of academia, and tourism has also declined in recent years. The embassy there is normally like a submarine - the ambassadors come and don't leave, they don't meet with members of parliament and don't mix with people in the street."
There is no doubt that lately the hatred is intensifying both because of the war in the Gaza Strip (the majority of Jordanians are Palestinians), and because of the escalation in Judea and Samaria (the increasing terrorist attacks and IDF activities in the refugee camps) and because of developments on the Temple Mount, with among other things, the frequent visits there by Minister of National Security Itamar Ben Gvir, which may be perceived by the Jordanians as a change in the status quo.
Apart from the protests, which have become a common sight in the streets, the radicalization can also be seen in the Jordanian establishment media. "In the past year, there have been constant calls from writers not to receive water from Israel and to reduce normalization," notes Dr. Michael Barak, a senior researcher at the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism Policy and a lecturer at Reichman University. "In December 2023, a survey was published in the local 'Al Ra'I' newspaper, which found that 93% of Jordanians support a boycott of products from Western countries that cooperate with Israel. This is also expressed in the cartoons in which Netanyahu is portrayed as Hitler. There is a lot of poison."
A year of extremism
The best expression of the mindset in Jordan could be seen in the elections held earlier this month. Although the Muslim Brotherhood was disbanded in the past and outlawed in the country, the party that supports its ideology - the Islamic Action Front - is gaining ground in the country. In the previous elections, it won 10 seats in parliament, and now it has tripled its number. "From a practical point of view, this shows that Islam is strong and getting stronger in all of Jordan," says Prof. Ronen Yitzhak, an expert on Jordan and head of the Middle Eastern Studies at the Western Galilee Academic College. "If in the past it was assumed that it was only in the big cities, now it turns out that it is also in the villages, in the periphery. This means that even the Bedouin tribes, who are supposedly loyal to the government, also see Islam as a political solution.
"You have to understand that according to polls, two-thirds of Jordanian citizens supported the Hamas attack. This is also related to the fact that in 2002 Jordan privatized the media channels and began broadcasting additional channels, such as Al Jazeera. In fact, it is the most watched station in Jordan, significantly. When talking about a trend of Islamic radicalization in Jordan, its roots are also in Al Jazeera."
What is the practical importance of the election results?
"It is clear that the parliament will now be more nationalistic. It will be more vociferous, and we will also hear calls to cancel the peace agreement, but ultimateli it is the king who decides."
So perhaps the sense of chaos needs to be seen in cooler terms. Almost all ruling bodies in Jordan - the prime minister, the government itself, the senate - are not appointed in elections, so the elections may express the popular state of mind in the country, but on a practical level they do not have much effect. "Parliament is not really important, it has no meaning," explains Prof. Joshua Krasna, a senior researcher at the Dayan Center for Middle East and African Studies at Tel Aviv University, and a former diplomat in Jordan. "The method is that the government forms legislation, passes it to the parliament and it approves or disapproves, it does not initiate. And also in terms of its ability to approve - since the upper house is appointed, there is almost no way that the parliament will be against the king. It is indeed a constitutional kingdom because there is a constitution, but de facto it is gives the power to the king."
So what do you think the elections express?
"It's hard to say. It should also be mentioned that until these elections there were no parties in the country and people ran on their own behalf (even if they were associated with a party). In 2022, the king decided on a reform, and as part of it, parties were slowly integrated. The Islamic Action Front party was actually the only existing one, and all the others were established in 2022, so it was the only organized one.
"In addition to that, the voter turnout was low at 33%. People are already losing faith and don't think anything will come out of these elections. In contrast, in 'religious' communities they told people to go out and vote, and therefore they also got more votes. And despite everything, there is no doubt it indicates there is an Islamist movement that is very strong in Jordan."
Millions of migrants, 20% unemployment
In addition to the strengthening of extreme Islam, one of the issues bothering the Jordanian regime is incitement among its citizens which might in the future develop into a coup that could jeopardize the regime and the entire region. This unrest is of course related to relations with Israel, but there are also some economic factors.
For example, in the second quarter of 2024, the unemployment rate in Jordan was 21.4%, according to the country's official publications. In addition, following the war, the Minister of Tourism and Antiquities Makram Mustafa A. Quesisi said that the war is causing an expected loss of income of $250 million per month. Jordan's public debt is currently $56 billion.
Dr. Zelkovitz explains, "You have to remember that Jordan is a country that had to take in waves of migrants from Iraq and Syria, and 3.5 million refugees live there today. The poor economic situation usually leads to more criticism of the government. Sometimes criticism of economic issues is combined with criticism of the manner of dealing with Israel.
"But the Jordanian regime in general knows how to manage its domestic systems in a smart way. They know how to connect the various sectors that build Jordanian society to the regime's important economic pipelines. A large part of the large tribes make a living from the government's public sector. It does create an unproductive economy and increases the national deficit, but this is an insurance policy for the regime."
"Iran cannot stand Jordan"
Within this reality there are those who try to exploit an opportunity. "The economic situation, the failing periphery, the destroyed infrastructure, this is precisely fertile ground for Islamic movements," explains Prof. Yitzhak.
Iran in particular is especially trying to consolidate its presence and its militias in Jordan. Beni Sabti, researcher in the Iran Program at Tel Aviv University's Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) says, "For decades, from the beginning of the revolution, the Iranian regime made it a point to attack the secular-monarchical regimes - Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Egypt. It simply does not tolerate the existence of Jordan. Even on a philosophical level, they say there that this is a fake country that the British wanted to establish in order to create a buffer between Israel and the other Arab countries. They believe with all their heart that everything is a conspiracy and that the royal house must be attacked. Many times when there are rebellions or demonstrations in Jordan, they are very supportive."
What would they like to do there? Do they even have the capability?
"They would like to engineer a coup. There is a lot of material about this in Persian - articles, statements by members of parliament, even the leader at the time would curse King Hussein. In Iran, there is no way you don't feel the hostility towards the Kingdom of Jordan. It cannot sit quietly on Jordan. It is engraved in its flag.
"In April the International Institute for Iranian Studies Rasanah published a document in which it described how Tehran is attempting to introduce Shiism to Jordan and convert citizens from Sunnism and to harness them to their interests. It is building Shiite mosques in Jordan and everything about this is written openly. In general, since October 7 there has been some hubris and the Iranians allow themselves to say things that I did not hear 30 years ago openly. They are in a completely messianic place.
"In the end, propaganda is the basis of everything. They don't start by bringing weapons to people and telling them to run, they start by training the hearts. Even when I was growing up in Iran, at the beginning of the revolution, they did free youth camps, and slowly they preached about Israel and the US. They are very thorough."
Prof. Yitzhak explains that these attempts usually run into a wall because, "Jordanian society is very cohesive and strong, and it is the country with the largest concentration of Sunnis in the world. There is no chance that Iran can exploit the vacuum or chaos there. Even from a political point of view, Shiites are condemned there."
Still, Sabti stresses that Tehran won't give up. "The Iranians are thinking long term, no matter how many failures there are along the way. Take for example the smuggling from Syria. We will bomb them hundreds of times, but once it will succeed. They also have no considerations over money. In Iran today there are seven to eight hours of power outages a day and they still prefer to invest in a mosque in Jordan."
Propaganda aside, there are also physical attempts to intervene in the country. "Jordan is actually a no-man's land for drugs and weapons gangs," explains Dr. Barak. "Pro-Iranian militias smuggle drugs and weapons into Jordan from Syria, and from there it reaches the West Bank." One such consignment, for example, was seized two months ago at the border, when guards identified three suspects who crossed the fence and dozens of guns and weapons were found in them. "There is also speculation that some of the weapons remained in Jordan to be used by the extremist elements on the day of reckoning, to destabilize the royal house and turn Jordan into another front against Israel.
"We should also mention the matter of the Houthis, who a few months ago reached an agreement in which they could fly from Yemen to Jordan to visit their imam who is buried in Jordan. This has not yet actually happened, but there is a real threat to Israel and the Jordanian kingdom. They could take advantage of these flights to establish ties with subversive elements in Jordan, to infiltrate into the civilian population and also to cross the border."
"Surprised that the terrorist succeeded"
However, despite these subversive currents and radicalization among Jordanian citizens, it should not be forgotten that in practice the Hashemite Kingdom is Israel's partner in many aspects. The most prominent of them in recent times has been its assistance in intercepting dozens of drones making their way to Israel from Iran here in April.
"The Jordanian royal family sees peace with Israel as a strategic asset," explains Dr. Barak. "Israel throughout its history has helped protect the royal family through cooperation. It should also be remembered that it is committed to security agreements with the US and almost 4,000 US soldiers are based in Jordan and they also help its army financially."
"King Abdullah II understands very well the strategic choice his father took in making peace with Israel," adds Prof. Krasna. "From a security point of view, the Jordanians see Iran and Hezbollah as an enemy, so we see eye to eye. Also from an economic point of view, Israel supplies Jordan with gas, so 70% of the electricity comes from Israel, and also large parts of drinking water. The Jordanians have a lot of dependence on us, also in infrastructure matters. I think that most Jordanians do not realize how strong cooperation between the countries is.
"It should also be said that this peace agreement is a strategic asset for Israel and we need to make sure we don't damage it. The Jordanians never trusted Bibi, it's no secret, but they don't like the current government even more due to its agenda in the West Bank and on the Temple Mount. The Jordanians see great importance in their control of the Temple Mount and they feel that we are challenging them."
"As long as the Hashemite kingdom maintains its power, it can be said that Jordan does not pose a security threat to the State of Israel," adds Dr. Zelkovitz. "The concern of the Jordanians has been the rise of the political-ideological right, some of whom spoke of Jordan as the alternative Palestinian homeland. But as long as Israel adheres to past agreements, the cooperation will continue to exist."
Despite the feeling that the peace agreement is not in danger, at least in the foreseeable future, there are glaring warning lights. Take, for example, the identity of last week's Jordanian terrorist - Maher al-Jazi, who belongs to the Bedouin al-Khawitat tribe. After his body was returned to Jordan this week, a mass funeral was held for him, which was even broadcast live on the Al Jazeera.
"This is a tribe of 250,000 people from the Ma'an district in southern Jordan, and after the attack they also issued a proclamation expressing support for the terrorist," says Dr. Barak. "What is worrying is that this is a tribe that is usually loyal to the kingdom and is now issuing a proclamation that goes against Jordanian interests and peace with Israel. This raises questions. I am concerned that there are voices rising up against Israel, not even among Islamist elements. I believe that even now we will see more attempts to carry out attacks. Although the Jordanian security forces monitor activity and it is important for them to maintain their image, it is very difficult for the regime to deal with what is happening in the kingdom."
"By and large, the Jordanians know how to protect their borders," explains Prof. Krasna. "Regarding the last attack, I was not surprised that someone wanted to harm us, but I was surprised that the terrorist was able to pass all the checks. This is an oversight. But it should be said that in general Jordanian society is not very violent in terms of terrorism and the security apparatus has good control over the area. Even in the Arab Spring almost no one was killed. The Jordanian regime is very invested in understanding the public's complaints and taking the sting out of them."
A fence is not sufficient
Thus the situation is extremely complex. Citizens who are becoming more extreme in a regime with an interest in maintaining the peace agreement, while dealing with a difficult economic situation, and while Iranian elements are trying to take advantage of the situation. In this reality, the question arises as to how the State of Israel should deals with this border.
According to assessments by security officials, revealed last month by Israeli journalist Kalman Liebskind in "Maariv," between January and July 2024, over 4,000 people infiltrated into Israel from Jordan. Most of them, it can be estimated, were involved in smuggling and criminal activity, but it is clear that some were smuggle weapons to the West Bank. Clearly the fence can be breached in terrorist attacks.
About five IDF battalions are stationed along the border, and over the past year, following the various threats, the army has been working to strengthen defenses. This is achieved by improving warnings, intelligence gathering efforts, preparing reserves to mobilize immediately, strengthening the standby units and the fence itself. Because it is a 309 kilometer border, the IDF believes that rather than moving additional battalions to the area, the relevant intelligence gathering measures should be strengthened. These days, they are working on these additional measures and tightening loopholes. All of these should make the border significantly more secure by the end of the year.
Despite all this, it is hard to sleep peacefully. "I am very concerned about terrorist activity in Jordan and also about the incitement from extremist elements there," says Brig. Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, the former head of the research division in the IDF Military Intelligence division and Ministry of Strategic Affairs director general and today director of the Project on Regional Middle East Developments at the Jerusalem Center. "There is a tangible danger of incitement. What should also be of concern is the threat to stability in Jordan and Iran's efforts to undermine it. If Hamas manages to get out of this campaign, and can assert the upper hand, it will translate it into even more significant threats. It should also be understood that all the smuggling from Jordan eventually translates into what is happening in the refugee camps in Judea and Samaria."
If you were the head of the research division today, what would you emphasize in this context?
"I would emphasize that the defeat of Hamas is the best medicine for stability in Jordan. This would explain that Hamas has failed and the idea of October 7 is dangerous for Palestinian interests. But regardless, a re-analysis of what is happening along the border should be done."
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu promised that he would work to build a barrier that would prevent smuggling on the eastern border. Is this the way forward?
"This is definitely one of the things that needs to be thought about, but we also need to remember that a fence without an active military presence is useless. Netanyahu did aim for that, but everywhere he visits he makes statements. We need to check how it is implemented in practice.
"What is possible and should be done is to try not to make things more difficult for the Jordanian regime. We need to be careful about things that are sensitive from their point of view, such as Israel's policy on the Temple Mount."
Published by Globes, Israel business news - en.globes.co.il - on September 23, 2024.
© Copyright of Globes Publisher Itonut (1983) Ltd., 2024.