Does the short, and tactically successful, Operation Breaking Dawn represent a turning point in Israel’s relationship with the Gaza Strip? It depends whom you ask. Either way, there is certainly a desire on the part of the Israeli leadership to take things further and reach a long-term truce, a "hudna", and not just a "tahdiya", or ceasefire.
It could be, however, that the hopes are overdone. So far, in all the military operations and conflagrations, the ceasefires have only been lulls in which Hamas has reequipped with rockets and missiles. There is no reason to think that things will be any different this time around. Since Operation Guardian of the Walls last year, Hamas has continued to rebuild its forces and its arsenal of weaponry, which was extensively destroyed. Palestinian Islamic Jihad, which was also hit in that operation, has already received assurances from Iran of aid in the form of finance and military equipment. On the positive side, Israel does derive some optimism from the fact that Hamas stayed on the fence during the recent fighting and showed a desire to avoid too much economic harm to Gaza’s population.
Opportunity for long-term arrangement with Hamas
Senior diplomatic sources told "Globes" following the ceasefire that "A ‘day after’ opportunity has been created, and Israel does not want to miss it." They say that the idea is to reach a broad agreement that will bring quiet and also bring back Israeli prisoners and missing persons. This statement is perhaps the most important outcome of the current operation, since up to now agreement have been for the medium term. The Israeli government assesses that an opportunity now arises for a longer-term arrangement with Hamas, on the basis of civilian moves.
This will mean de facto renunciation of the idea of toppling Hamas, and acceptance of a continuing strategic threat from the Gaza Strip. Hamas has no intention of laying down its arms and demilitarizing the Gaza Strip. The morning after the ceasefire, senior Hamas spokesperson Fawzi Barhoum said that the confrontation with Israel would not end until it was expelled from Palestinian land. In other words, Hamas remains Hamas, and the talk of "moderation" in the light of its non-participation in the recent fighting is an exaggeration.
For all that, what is Israel planning? According to the sources mentioned earlier, there are no substantial new economic measures, at least, not in the short term. "Globes" has learned from Arab sources involved in negotiations between the two sides, however, that Hamas has received messages from Israel. The negative message is a warning/threat that economic relaxations will be halted, and that the Gaza Strip will in many ways go backwards, including to a minimal supply of electricity. During the latest operation, because of the depletion of reserves of fuel, the power plant in the Gaza Strip supplied electricity only four hours a day. That is the Gaza Strip’s immediate need, and the first vehicles to cross the border with Israel yesterday morning were fuel tankers driving directly to the power plant.
The second message is a positive one: expansion of relaxations and, importantly, progress on several infrastructure projects: a power line from Israel to the Gaza Strip, rapid construction of the large planned desalination plant, renewal of the activity of the industrial zone at the Erez Crossing, and other projects. Egypt is one of the channels for conveying these messages, and for its part it has promised relaxations at the Rafah border crossing.
One vision connected to the positive message is the construction of a Middle East power grid together with the Gulf states, first and foremost the UAE. If we take it a step further, the development of the gas reserve off the Gaza coast could be on the agenda. But the reality of the Middle East, and particularly of the Gaza Strip, doesn’t exactly come into line with such a vision. As mentioned, Hamas will not be prepared at any price to abandon its weapons, or its ideology of the destruction of the State of Israel. The Palestinian Authority is too weak to carry out these projects itself in the Gaza Strip.
Economy won’t prevent escalation
So what are we left with? Just the realpolitik of the present Hamas leadership, headed by Yahya Sinwar, who is sometimes a pragmatist, sometimes an extremist, and who wants to leverage economic achievements as quickly as possible but continues to prepare the next confrontation.
Israel identifies disgruntlement in the Gaza street because of the harm to the economy and the escalation of the conflict. The bar on the entry of workers into Israel from the Gaza Strip leads directly to the loss of NIS 4-5 million a day, or some NIS 30 million to date. A worker in the Gaza Strip earns NIS 10-50 a day, and the average monthly wage there is NIS 1,200-1,400. Gazans who work in Israel, on the other hand, earn NIS 250-400 daily, and support whole family groups.
The Israeli government has authorized an increase in the number of workers entering Israel to 20,000, and that decision will probably be implemented, though not in the next few days. The diplomatic sources say that the indirect aim of allowing workers into Israel is to create a means of bringing pressure to bear on Hamas, and that this has clearly worked in the current round of fighting.
All the same, Michael Milstein, head of the Palestinian Studies Forum at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies, says that economic pressure must not be given too much weight. He says that if it was really significant, then Hamas would have prevented Islamic Jihad from escalating the situation in the first place. The economy restrains but does not prevent escalation out of ideological motives.
Egypt mediates, Iran rearms
In the negotiations on a ceasefire, Egypt played the leading role, and for years now it has been the main mediator between Israel and Hamas. The Egyptians, who in the past did not make very strenuous efforts to prevent smuggling into the Gaza Strip, including of weapons and missile parts, have changed policy in recent years and most of the smuggling is thwarted. On the other hand, they have expanded their economic involvement in the Gaza Strip, and have promised to increase aid for reconstruction following the Guardian of the Walls operation and the operation that ended on Sunday night.
Qatar, which is financing several projects in the Gaza Strip and actually pays for fuel for electricity production, was also involved in the negotiations. According to the Arab source mentioned above, Qatar made clear to Hamas that this funding would cease if it joined in the fighting.
What next? After some weeks of drawing conclusions and in advance of the meeting of the donor countries in the fall, a broad plan for the economic rehabilitation of the Gaza Strip can be expected to be drafted, on the assumption that economic benefits help in keeping the peace. In practice, until the election in Israel is over, and perhaps until a new government is formed, there will be no very significant steps besides the plans that have already started to be implemented.
As for Iran, Islamic Jihad’s sponsor is also on the losing side, at least tactically speaking. Pushed by Islamic Jihad, it managed to come into conflict with Israel, but after the severe blow sustained by that organization, it came into line with its position in the Gaza Strip that it should cease firing. Looking further ahead, Iran is going in the direction of rearming Islamic Jihad and enabling it to fulfil its role in the belt of threats against Israel from the south. If Iran returns to a nuclear deal that contains nothing about its support for terrorism, many millions of dollars will flow to Islamic Jihad, and to Hamas as well, reinforcing their military capabilities and the threat they pose to Israel.
Published by Globes, Israel business news - en.globes.co.il - on August 9, 2022.
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