The price of oil rose today following a report by CNN that while the Trump administration is in talks with the Iranian regime over a new nuclear agreement, Israel is preparing to attack the country's nuclear installations. Such an attack, if it were to occur, could lead to a grave regional escalation far more serious than the current war and attacks from last year.
What did CNN report about Israel and Iran?
CNN reported that the US had received intelligence that Israel was preparing to attack Iran's nuclear facilities, while the Trump administration was negotiating with the Iranian regime. On the one hand, the report noted that President Donald Trump might be furious about such an attack that would contradict his position, but on the other hand, it also speculated that the Israeli preparations were designed to increase pressure on Tehran.
How are oil prices being affected?
Iran is OPEC's third-largest oil producer, and therefore the fear of an Israeli attack on its territory and regional escalation led to an increase in oil prices. A barrel of Brent crude rose by 1.6% this morning to $66.4, after the Iranian Central Bank announced a few days ago that Iran's oil exports over the past Persian year, which ended March 20, amounted to $67 billion - a decade-high and a jump of about 16.5% compared with the previous year. This significant increase demonstrates the difficulty in implementing sanctions on Iran.
Could an airstrike on Iran be the furthest ever carried out the Israel Air Force?
The Israel Air Force has attacked the Houthi rebels in Yemen several times, about 2,000 kilometers from Israel, while the distance from Israel to Iran is about 1,800 kilometers. Furthermore, the Air Force has medium- and long-range air-to-surface missiles, such as Rampage, ROCKS, and LORA, which allow for attacks on certain countries without entering them. Also, as revealed in Globes, Israel is in talks with the US to procure JASSM series long range cruise missiles, which could target Iran.
What is the current economic situation in Iran?
While Iran's nuclear program is moving forward, the local economy is going from bad to worse. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that in order to prevent a budget deficit in 2025, Iran will need an oil price of $163 - 2.5 times higher than the current market price. The IMF explains this by saying that the government of Masoud Pezeskhian assumed that it would export at $67 per barrel of oil, but it based this on exports of 1.85 million barrels per day, when in reality exports are closer to 1.1 million barrels per day. Therefore, the IMF expects the trade deficit in 2025 to reach close to 40% of GDP. The consensus among analysts is that the rate of Iranian oil production and exports have declined this year. While the IMF sees a decrease of about 300,000 barrels per day, other analysts predict it could be as much as 500,000 barrels per day. Either way, that would be a lot of money disappearing from the Iranian economy.
Where do the nuclear talks with the US stand?
The fifth round of nuclear talks between the US and Iran is expected to take place in Rome this coming Saturday and Sunday. The main bone of contention between the parties is uranium enrichment on Iranian soil. While Iran is unwilling to compromise on enrichment on its territory, the Trump administration refuses to accept it. On the other hand, Washington has already announced that it will agree to an Iranian civilian nuclear program, with an enrichment level of up to 3.67%.
What is uranium enrichment?
In natural uranium, the rate of the fissionable isotope (uranium-235) is seven parts per thousand - and uranium enrichment is intended to increase it in order to produce a nuclear chain reaction. Civilian nuclear reactors, for example, to generate electricity, use uranium enriched to 3%-5%, while advanced reactors require enrichment of up to 20%. For the sake of nuclear bombs, aircraft carriers and submarines, a stockpile of uranium enriched to high levels of 85%-90% is needed.
How much enriched uranium does Iran currently have?
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) data show that at the beginning of February, Iran possessed 275 kilogram of uranium enriched to a level of 60%, which can be enriched in a relatively rapid process to a level of 90%. Theoretically, such an amount, if enriched to 85%, would be enough to produce six nuclear bombs. For comparison, on the eve of the signing of the nuclear agreement a decade ago, Iran possessed approximately 8,710 kilograms of uranium enriched at a low level (3.67%) and approximately 195 kilograms at a medium enrichment level (20%).
So what is a possible solution to the Iranian nuclear program?
A solution that could resolve the impasse in the negotiations, if Iran agrees to give up uranium enrichment on its territory, is the UAE model. Abu Dhabi decided about 15 years ago to give up the ability to enrich uranium on its territory, and today four reactors in the UAE are connected to the electricity grid, based on the import of enriched uranium from Australia. With the backing of the IAEA, UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed is interested in building additional nuclear power plants, as part of what is known internationally as the "gold model."
Published by Globes, Israel business news - en.globes.co.il - on May 21, 2025.
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