What are Hezbollah's capabilities, why are they not firing on central Israel and can Israel's aerial defense system cope with a large number of missiles? Dr. Yehoshua Kalisky, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), an expert on laser, electro-optical and sensor technologies explains the situation to "Globes."
What have we learned from Hezbollah's rocket firing patterns in recent days?
"We have learned one simple thing. It's not like they were shouting about. In my opinion, until now they have fired inaccurate missiles, but we can't know that because from the interception systems point of view, it doesn't really matter what the type of missile is, accurate or inaccurate, they all have to be intercepted."
He adds, "A distinction must be made between two types of events - long-range and medium-range missiles versus rockets and other short-range means. So what can we learn? First of all, our systems deal very well with medium- and long-range ballistic missiles. At the same time, we can also learn that the systems do not deal well with short-range rockets."
So the less sophisticated the system, the more difficult it is to cope?
"This is not because our systems are not good, they are simply not built to cope with short-range missiles. To cope, the system needs to intercept an object that reaches its target sometimes within a few seconds. The Iron Dome system does not have the time to deal with them, nor is it built to deal with low flying targets. So this is actually the main problem and that's why they also managed to wreak havoc in places close to the border."
Do you think something will be developed in the future that can handle this?
"Without a doubt. As soon as the powerful laser system goes into operation, it will solve the matter for the most part. In my understanding, it is planned to start operating in the middle or end of next year."
The system has to decide which targets to intercept and which not to
Is the claim that they fire in clusters to confuse the air defense systems true?
"There's something in that. They don't do it so much to confuse, but more to saturate it. I mean, as soon as you send one, two or three missiles, then the system knows exactly how to calculate the missile's ballistic trajectory and send the Iron Dome to it. As soon as you fire en masse, so you create some kind of saturation in the system and decisions are not always optimal. It has to decide what is dangerous and what can be allowed to fall in open areas. Hezbollah's goal is first of all to saturate the system."
Regarding the fact that Hezbollah sometimes shoots in clusters one after the other, Dr. Kalisky says, "The aim is really to see the first interception and from there to improve immediately. So it is likely that they fire one barrage and the systems work and intercept the barrage and Hezbollah immediately fires a barrage based on what it learned from the interceptions on the assumption that the system is still in the same state."
"But", he reassures. "I guess our guys are smart enough to make sure the system is able to handle these cases."
An endless arsenal of missiles of all types
Why is Hezbollah almost not firing on central Israel? Maybe they have run out of missiles?
"They haven't run out of anything. They don't fire to the center in my opinion for two reasons. First of all, it is more convenient for them in terms of the preparation of the short-range missiles. A long-range missile is a complicated system, it's a missile several meters high, it weighs a lot and you can't keep it in a house, and this preparation is discovered by the Air Force and intelligence. I mean, it's more convenient to operate short and medium range systems than long range. So it's more difficult to fire on the center, but once they have the opportunity, they won't hesitate to fire everywhere."
The foreign media has reported that there is an amount of firing going on simultaneously so that our defense systems are unable to cope. Do you think they are trying to reach that threshold?
"They are definitely trying to challenge the systems. We saw it recently in the Iranian attack with 181 missiles fired at the same time. Hezbollah also does it every day when it fires quantities of missiles simultaneously. So it is clear that they are trying to challenge the system and deplete our inventory. But the systems know how to make decisions about interceptions and prioritize."
How can it be that Hamas is still firing rockets after a year of the war
Hamas's rockets are much simpler than those of Hezbollah. You don't need a serious launcher like in the north, and Hamas' means of launching are much simpler. A few holes dug in the orchard, and all that is needed is someone who knows how to operate the system, who arrives, activates and runs away. So it's enough for them to have a few hundred long-range rockets left and many more short-range ones, and they can continue firing for months on end."
What about the costs of the interception systems?
"The interception by a Tamir missile from Iron Dome, for example, costs about NIS 100,000. It costs a lot, but it's worth every shekel. It literally saves lives and it also allows the decision-makers the opportunity to manage the campaign more correctly."
What about the cost of the laser?
"Laser interception will cost around $15. The laser is a certain layer of protection, which does not provide a solution everywhere, but it will be an additional layer. It is very effective for the short-range. It will save a lot because the cost is not high, there is a minimal cost of electricity and that's it. Secondly, it is indestructible, the interceptors are expensive to develop, but from the moment it is used, it should be very effective."
Published by Globes, Israel business news - en.globes.co.il - on October 10, 2024.
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