In the past few days, one after another, key countries in Europe have announced changes in direction in relation to Israel’s war in the Gaza Strip, and have demanded to "open for discussion" the question whether Israel is still committed to the terms of its Association Agreement with the European Union.
This agreement forms the basis of commercial relations, scientific collaboration, and diplomatic and cultural relations between the EU and Israel, including trade worth some €50 billion annually.
The background to the change of direction is the plan approved in Israel’s security cabinet last week to take over parts of the Gaza Strip "for a long time," and the prevention of food and humanitarian aid entering the Gaza Strip in the past few months. "We must set a red line," said the foreign minister of the Netherlands, one of the countries leading the move.
According to Israeli sources, Jerusalem is monitoring developments and trying to assess the implications.
The current drift in Europe against Israeli policy comes against the background of US President Donald Trump’s visit to the Middle East this week, his omission of a visit to Israel, and veiled criticism even from the White House of the halting of humanitarian aid and the deteriorating situation in the Gaza Strip.
According to commentators, the EU countries are encouraged by the fact that the US administration expresses such criticism of Israeli policy, and so are not fearful of a confrontation with Trump on the issue. They say that the feeling in Europe is that Brussels’ room for maneuver has widened, and that there is a will to use the EU’s position of strength as Israel’s biggest trading partner to achieve diplomatic goals.
Public opinion on the continent is pressing governments to take substantial steps to protect the Palestinians, because of the pictures coming out of the Gaza Strip. In fact, a small number of pro-Palestinian countries on the continent has tried consistently over the past year to bring about change in the EU’s relationship with Israel, or to threaten such a change, in order to curb Israel’s military campaign.
Tariff exemptions and scientific collaborations
Relations between the EU and Israel are governed by the Association Agreement of 2000 , which sets out the exemption from tariffs that forms the basis of trade, scientific collaboration, such as the Horizon program, student exchanges in the Erasmus program. In addition, there are agreements such as the Euro-Mediterranean Aviation Agreement of 2018, the "open skies" agreement, that facilitates cheap flights to Europe, and more.
Article 2 of the Association Agreement states: "Relations between the Parties, as well as all the provisions of the Agreement itself, shall be based on respect for human rights and democratic principles, which guides their internal and international policy and constitutes an essential element of this Agreement." A year ago, Ireland, Spain, Luxemburg, Slovenia, among other countries, demanded that the European Commission should consider whether Israeli is still committed to these values, in the light of its actions in the Gaza Strip. The Commission, backed by key countries such as Germany, and in the face of determined opposition by pro-Israel countries such as Austria, the Netherlands, and Hungary, scuttled the move. Even the previous High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borell, who expressed sharp criticism of Israel, did not manage to advance the move before he was replaced.
But the picture has now changed. Netherlands foreign minister Caspar Veldkamp announced last week that "the catastrophic situation in Gaza" made a discussion on future relations between the EU and Israel necessary. He also said that in his opinion Israel was not demonstrating commitment to Article 2, that the Netherlands would suspend progress on any future plan of action between Israel and the EU, and would demand an urgent review of the matter, as long as Israel refused to allow humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip. "We are sending a message to Israel, and taking a clear step," he said.
"Legal commitments and moral responsibility"
After that announcement, which received public backing from the Netherlands prime minister, other countries joined in the demand. Two days after the Dutch announcement, Finland announced that it too would demand a discussion of Article 2 of the Association Agreement "if Israel continues to halt humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip."
""It can't get much worse, because Israel hasn't allowed food shipments into Gaza for months. Under no circumstances should people's suffering be politicized, as Israel is currently doing," Finnish Minister of Foreign Affairs Elina Valtonen said. She added that Israel had both a legal obligation and a moral responsibility to allow humanitarian aid to enter the Gaza Strip. The Swedish foreign minister confirmed in an interview on Swedish television on Monday that the Swedish government supported an investigation under Article 2.
France has also joined in. "This is a legitimate demand, and I call on the European Commission to examine it," French foreign minister Jean-Noël Barrot said in a radio interview in France. Asked whether he was in favor of suspending the entire Association Agreement, Barrot said, "Let’s see what the European Commission enquiry decides."
Portugal is also believed to be about to join the demand, and Malta and Belgium as well. A demand to review the Association Agreement does not have to be unanimous. A majority of the 27 EU member countries is sufficient, and the axis of countries critical of Israel may succeed in obtaining it.
The decision whether or not to put the issue on the agenda lies with the new EU High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Estonian Kaja Kallas, who so far has not commented on the matter. The demand could be raised for discussion as soon as next Tuesday, at the monthly meeting of EU foreign ministers.
Agreement in danger
"Since Article 2 is a basic clause on which the Association Agreement rests, reviewing it means, in the most extreme case, a danger of the agreement being suspended or cancelled," Dr. Maya Sion-Tzidkiyahu, who heads the Israel-Europe Relations Program at the Mitvim Institute and lectures in the Hebrew University’s European Forum, told "Globes". "In practice, it’s hard to see relations deteriorating to that extent. But the very fact that the process has begun is very worrying, and sends a negative message to European business."
The tide now running against Israel has several causes, she says. "The first is the halt to the entry of humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip, the closing of international food distribution points in the absence of supplies, and reports of starvation there.
"The second cause is the approval of the "Gideon’s Chariots" plan for renewing intensive fighting in the Gaza Strip, with the emphasis on the lack of a diplomatic horizon.
"The third is Trump’s visit to the region, without visiting Israel, and his moves in the past few weeks vis-à-vis Iran and the Houthis, which send a message to the world that the gaps between him and Netanyahu are growing. One of the conclusions that the Europeans draw from that is that it’s possible to act against the government of Israel without a counter response from Trump.
"The fourth factor is the fact that many European governments are under internal pressure to take substantial steps in the light of the government’s policy in the Gaza Strip, and these are the governments that we are seeing joining the move that the Netherlands foreign minister initiated."
Dr. Sion-Tzidkiyahu’s view is that if Israel starts to implement a humanitarian aid program and avoids a broad military operation, the European threat will not materialize. But it will probably not be removed from the agenda altogether.
"The road to suspending or canceling any agreement is a long one, and it is not yet on the horizon. We are mainly seeing a means of bringing diplomatic pressure to dissuade Israel from causing starvation in the Gaza Strip and from further fighting with no vision," she says.
"The move certainly indicates that the camp opposed to the Israeli government in Europe is steadily growing, and the diplomatic tidal wave could develop at a rapid rate that would be liable to turn the State of Israel into an international outcast, even more than its standing has already suffered," she concludes.
Published by Globes, Israel business news - en.globes.co.il - on May 14, 2025.
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