Likud Knesset member Gideon Sa'ar announced last night that he was leaving the Likud to form a party of his own. "The Likud has changed beyond recognition and has departed from its statesmanlike ways. The movement has become a tool in the hands of its leader. Ideology has given way to a cult of personality and to sycophancy to an individual mortal," Sa'ar said, referring to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Following a two-and-a-half year absence from politics, Sa'ar failed in a challenge to Netanyahu's Likud party leadership before Israel's last election.
What then should we make of Sa'ar's move, and what impact will it have on Israel's political scene? Five remarks:
1. Sa'ar's departure from the Likud is not surprising. He was denied any position of influence or power in the formation of the coalition government following the election, despite his high position in the Likud party list as chosen by the party membership. After his failed bid for the party leadership, Sa'ar's star faded. He has seen that of another figure in the political firmament, Yamina leader Naftali Bennett, rise instead as the main candidate to replace Netanyahu as leader of the right-wing block. Had he continued to stand aside and let Bennett keep amassing political strength, it would have been very difficult for him to rehabilitate his image as a potential leader for the right after Netanyahu leaves the stage - so he set out on his own. The strategy of other senior Likud politicians with leadership ambitions "to wait for the day after Netanyahu" has not proved effective over the past decade.
2. Sa'ar is in effect doing what Moshe Kahlon did before the 2015 election, when, after a period away from politics, he left Likud to set up Kulanu, a strong party, even if not a party of government. Sa'ar's move should enable him to return to the helm of the state, instead of continuing to wait for an appointment from Netanyahu. Kahlon's Kulanu won ten Knesset seats, and in effect he was able to steer the entire government as an important component of the coalition and as a main partner of Likud. Five years later he disappeared from politics, but that is another story.
3. Sa'ar's party list does not need to be star-studded. One or two well-known and attractive figures will be enough, together with a lot of doers. If he want to run on the ticket of "the real Likud", he already has on his side Likud Knesset members who will want to join his list. The talk is of those who backed him in his party leadership challenge - Michal Shir, Sharren Haskel, and perhaps also Yoav Kisch. In addition to them there is the right-wing pair Zvi Hauser and Yoaz Hendel, who are without a political home and who can fully identify with Sa'ar's platform (the Beitar grandeur of long ago).
4. The immediate casualty of the formation of Sa'ar's new party will of course be Bennett, who has been seen as the only alternative to Netanyahu, and whom the opinion polls give over twenty Knesset seats. The polls that will be conducted in the coming days will indicate the extent of the damage, and Bennett will have to respond to Sa'ar with his own moves, perhaps by announcing new stars for his Yamina party. Contending with Sa'ar could also push Bennett back towards his party's religious Zionist base. Betzalel Smotrich, who leads the party's more ideologically fervent religious faction, from which Bennett was seen as likely to split, can rest easy for the time being.
5. Timing is everything in politics. Although the political establishment looks as though it is already deep into elections for the 24th Knesset, with a bill to dissolve the Knesset having passed first reading, Sa'ar's announcement could push Netanyahu into compromises with his Blue & White Party coalition partner and its leader Benny Gantz that he has been unwilling to contemplate up to now, thereby putting off elections. Sa'ar, who will resign from the Knesset today, would thereby be left hanging out to dry, losing precious momentum, and fading in strength as the election becomes more distant. Elections are especially unpredictable and the electorate is especially fickle for those who start off with a bang in the polls and the television studios.
Published by Globes, Israel business news - en.globes.co.il - on December 9, 2020
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