Seventy-five years ago, Turkey was the first Muslim country to enter into diplomatic relations with the State of Israel. Yesterday (Sunday), Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened to invade Israel, in the same way as Turkey was involved in the wars in Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh.
It’s no surprise that President Erdogan, Hamas’s closest friend, should again attack Israel verbally, but even in Israel’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs there was considerable surprise at what Erdogan said, and last night the ministry took pains to verify that he had really said it.
Against the background of the Swords of Iron war, Erdogan has brought relations between Israel and Turkey to new lows practically by the month, halting flights between the two countries and imposing an embargo on trade, but his statement yesterday went way beyond such measures. "Netanyahu, perpetrator of genocide of the Palestinians, will meet the same fate as Hitler," the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement backing the president’s threat.
Where does this extraordinary threat come from, and what was its context? How strong is the Turkish military? Should Erdogan’s words be taken seriously? And how is Iran, orchestrator of the multi-front battle, involved in Turkey as well?
Where did the threat come from and where was Erdogan speaking?
Yesterday, Erdogan attended an event of his ruling party AKP (Justice and Development Party) in Rize on the Black Sea. It’s no coincidence that he said what he had to say in that particular place. His family’s roots are in the region, and it’s a stronghold of political support for him.
"Erdogan’s declaration was influenced by the speech of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the US Congress," says Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen-Yanarocak, an expert on Turkey at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University and The Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security. "For several days, Erdogan has been making declarations against Netanyahu in the Turkish media, and now he has escalated them. "
Erdogan’s threat came a day after he attacked Palestinian Authority chairperson Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) in Rize, saying that Abbas had been invited to address the Turkish parliament in Ankara but hadn’t responded. "He ought to apologize to us," Erdogan said. "Let’s see if he comes." According to the latest reports, it would seem that the rebuke had the desired effect. Abbas is due to appear in the Turkish parliament shortly.
Dr. Gallia Lindenstrauss, a senior research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies and an expert on Turkish foreign policy, says that Erdogan has had to deal with public pressure lately following Netanyahu’s appearance in Congress.
"Turks criticized Erdogan for not having invited Abu Mazen as a counter to Netanyahu’s invitation to Congress. There are also critics who are demanding that Ismail Haniyeh, chairperson of the Hamas Political Bureau, should be invited to speak in the Turkish parliament."
Dr. Cohen-Yanarocak sees Erdogan’s invasion threat as an attempt to change the subject of discussion. "From the moment that he made his extraordinary declaration, that is what has been talked about. He changed public discourse, and no-one has been commenting on the question why Abu Mazen hasn’t come to the Turkish parliament and why Netanyahu’s speech was so successful."
How strong is Turkey militarily in comparison with Israel?
In the Global Firepower ranking for 2024, Turkey is ranked eighth in the world, while Israel is seventeenth. In most of the main metrics, such as manpower, ground forces, budgets, and logistics, Turkey is ahead of Israel. On the other hand, Israel beats Turkey for air power, thanks to its F-35 aircraft, which Turkey doesn’t have, because of Erdogan’s insistence on buying Russia’s S-400 air defense system.
What is the state of Turkey-Iran relations?
Iran, which in recent months has maintained close ties with Turkey in general and with its foreign minister Hakan Fidan in particular, is ranked fourteenth by Global Firepower.
"In practice, Turkey has been behaving as a country closer to Iran than to the West," says Dr. Lindenstrauss. "We have seen this in Turkey’s threats against Cyprus, which followed similar threats by Hassan Nasrallah. Turkey did not condemn the murder of civilians on the Golan Heights, and when Iran attacked Israel in April, Turkey condemned the ‘Israeli provocation.’ In the past, if there were terrorist attacks in Tel Aviv, for example, Turkey would express sympathy. Now, we are seeing a Turkey that is completely hostile to Israel."
There is still a Turkish embassy active in Tel Aviv. What is it doing here?
"A glaring anomaly in the current crisis is that from a diplomatic point of view relations have not worsened," Dr. Lindenstrauss says. "The ambassadors in Tel Aviv and in Ankara have been withdrawn for consultations, but diplomatic relations have not been downgraded. That explains why there has been no action to close the embassy. Israel has no interest in adding one more to the many fronts that it is coping with, while for the Turks, access to the Palestinians is important, and they can obtain that via Israel. Nevertheless, question marks are mounting over diplomatic relations between the two countries."
What are Israel’s economic interests in preserving ties with Turkey?
First of all, it’s no secret that Turkey was an important trading partner for Israel, but no longer, because of the embargo imposed by Erdogan. According to Turkish statistics, exports from Turkey to Israel in May this year amounted to just $4.42 million, 99% less than in May 2023. For 2024 to the end of May, total exports from Turkey to Israel fell by 38.4% to $1.42 billion. Nevertheless, Israel has a clear interest in maintaining some kind of stability in ties between the two countries, as far as possible, and that interest lies in energy.
Azerbaijan is a very important supplier of oil to Israel, and the oil reaches Israel via the BTC (Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan) pipeline. At the port of Ceyhan in southern Turkey, the oil is loaded onto tankers bound for Haifa. According to the Customs Office in Baku, Israel’s oil imports from Azerbaijan shot up by 55% in the first half of 2024, to 1.583 million tonnes, worth $989 million.
Despite the war, and the way the oil reaches Israel via Turkey, Israel has moved up from the third largest importer of Azerbaijani oil in the first half of 2023 to the second largest in the first half of this year, when it accounted for 14% of Azerbaijan’s oil exports, second only to Italy, which imported 4.273 million tonnes. The good news for Israel is that Erdogan is a close friend of Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev. As far as oil is concerned, it’s not just Israel that is in a trap; Erdogan is as well.
All in all, should Erdogan’s threat be taken seriously?
Dr. Cohen-Yanarocak: "The statement was made by the president of Turkey, not by some junior politician. Anything that the president of the country says has to be taken seriously."
Published by Globes, Israel business news - en.globes.co.il - on July 29, 2024.
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