In a little while, we'll have elections. In a little while, they'll tell us that the deep divisions over conscription of yeshiva students spelled the end of the coalition, and there was no alternative. Any minute now, we will once again hear the voices lamenting another administration ending before its time, and the instability of government in Israel.
The truth of course is different. The State of Israel is going to the polls because that is what the prime minister wants. He could have kept his government going for another year with no trouble at all, had he only wished to. Theoretically, even if he failed to pass he budget, he could still carry on until mid-2013.
Netanyahu is about to do what is expected of any trader whose shares keep going up cash in. For months he has sat in his bureau, looking at surveys that forecast a wonderful and rosy future, hardly able to contain his joy. How much patience can we expect of a politician who sees victory beckoning and wants only to seize it? How much self-restraint can he muster when at home all is quiet and the opposite camp is imploding, turning from an orderly hierarchy into a particle accelerator?
With no real threat to his rule, Netanyahu's self-confidence swells in proportion to the number of Knesset seats predicted for his party in the opinion polls. Yet still he finds no peace, wondering all the time where evil might strike. There is no shortage of possibilities: State Comptroller reports; a renewed outbreak of social protests; and, more than anything, the 2013 budget, which is shaping up as a budget of merciless spending cuts and tax hikes. No prime minister wants to come before the electorate with a dowry like that; better to hold elections beforehand.
When you look at the forthcoming elections, it seems obvious that they are a foregone conclusion, but that is the easy thing to say. More difficult is to try to predict the unexpected, to spot underground trends before they break forth. Fear of the unexpected is what now motivates the prime minister. So, having decided on elections, he wants them as soon and as safely as possible.
These elections, assuming they actually take place, are entirely a personal project of Netanyahu's. One has to feel sorry for Yishai and Liberman. How did this happen to them, the loyal partners, when it was so pleasant and warm for them in this cosseting coalition, made to measure specially for them? Now they have to part from all that plenty, and they really don't want to.
Who says you can't build a stable coalition in Israel? Look at this government, one big lump of stability, a steadfast rock that no enemy can move. Two decisions by the prime minister made his government so stable and his coalition so smooth running.
The first was the decision made right at the start, in the coalition negotiations: to indulge to the nth degree, with portfolios, ministries, posts and jobs. The dogs barked, and the caravan moved on, happy and content. Not only did the caravan pass, but also laws and budgets for coalition partners. Generosity proved itself; greasing palms did the job.
After all that, what finally cemented the coalition (and sacred regime stability) was the absence of any diplomatic process. September 2010 was the formative moment of the outgoing coalition, a point in time that marked the direction it would take. After ten moths of a construction freeze in the settlements, Netanyahu came to the decisive moment: on one side stood the Americans and the Europeans (and one or two less important figures, like Ehud Barak and Dan Meridor), pleading for a three-month extension of the freeze; on the other side stood the coalition. The prime minister made his choice, negotiations with the Palestinians ceased and have not been renewed since, but the coalition stayed steady. All along, Netanyahu avoided disappointing his partners. Now is doing so for the first time, as he points the way to elections.
The writer is the political correspondent of Channel 10.
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on May 2, 2012
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