Politics was never a profession for the fastidious, but this week it would have been a good idea to come to the Knesset with a gas mask. The stink was too much even for those who have been there for decades.
All that's left as the Knesset empties for the summer recess is a sense of revulsion after another failed attempt to break up Kadima, and one question remains unanswered: no-one managed to explain this week why Netanyahu always likes to plunge his hands into these revolting mixes, unless he enjoys the stench.
The latest poll by the Rafi Smith Institute for "Globes" shows that Netanyahu has lost five Knesset seats in the past two months. From 33 seats in May, his Likud party has fallen to 28, its worst showing for more than a year.
After three weeks of zigzags over legislation for conscription of haredim (ultra-orthodox Jews) and Arabs, and the disgusting machinations to split Kadima, Likud's fall from grace is making itself felt on the ground. Netanyahu is again perceived as a small-time political hack. He demonstrated that his political skills are not all they are cracked up to be, and even if he has succeeded in landing a blow on Kadima, this is because the latter is weak, not because he is strong.
The transition from over 30 Knesset seats to twenty something, as found by the poll, should set a red light flashing for Netanyahu. Although the Likud's decline is not dramatic at this stage, and is not such as would lead to a change in the political map, if this is the beginning of a trend, Netanyahu is starting to have trouble on his hands.
Huge red lights should be flashing for Kadima chairman Shaul Mofaz. After a step as dramatic as walking out of the coalition waving the flag of equal conscription for all, Kadima has gained just one projected Knesset seat, which is within the sampling error. Mofaz is emerging as a vote-repelling magnet. Even when he does the right things, he reaps no political benefit. And if he had any chance of improving Kadima's position in some way, the political mayhem his party colleagues arranged for him ruined it.
As things stand, Kadima is crumbling. Only one in eight of those who voted for it at the last election plan to do so again. Until proven otherwise, centrist parties in Israel are one-election wonders. Yair Lapid take note.
There hasn’t been much good news for Netanyahu this week, and this isn't good either: the Labor party and Shelly Yachimovich are narrowing the gap from Likud. And in the battle of the trends of the summer of 2012, Labor versus Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid party, so far Yachimovich is on top. While she has strengthened by two Knesset seats, Lapid is not taking off. One should have thought that after the Plesner report on conscription was buried he would fly, but he is still in waiting mode.
The best news of the poll is for Minister of Defense Ehud Barak. His Ha'atzmaut Party has passed the minimum threshold and wins a projected three Knesset seats. The instability in the region, the chaos in Egypt and Syria, and the Iran question, position him as Mr. Security. The fact that, while Barak does meddle in politics, he does not talk about political matters, has its effect. Even if Ha'atzmaut ultimately fails to pass the threshold, as far as the public is concerned, Barak will still be defense minister.
Poll results
The figure in parentheses is the number of seats won at the last election. This is followed by projected seats in the Rafi Smith-"Globes" polls conducted in July, June, and May this year.
Likud (27) 28, 31, 33
Labor (13) 18, 16, 19
Israel Beitenu (15) 16, 18, 14
Yesh Atid (-) 11, 11, 8
Shas (11) 9, 10, 8
Kadima (28) 7,6,7
United Torah Judaism (5) 3, 3, 4
Ichud Leumi (4) 3, 3, 4
Habayit Hayehudi - New National Religious Party (3) 4, 4, 4
Meretz (3) 4, 4, 4
Hadash (4) 4, 4, 4
National Democratic Assembly (3) 4, 4, 4
Ra`am-Ta`al (4) 3, 3, 3
Ha'atzmaut (-) 3, 0, 2
Green Movement (-) 0, 0, 0
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on July 26, 2012
© Copyright of Globes Publisher Itonut (1983) Ltd. 2012