In the past 24 hours there has been two assassinations attributed to Israel - top Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut and Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
Hezbollah and Hamas have vowed revenge putting Israel ln a tense standby. To understand Israel’s current situation and the significance of these assassinations, "Globes" spoke to Major General (res.) Amos Yadlin, former head of IDF Military Intelligence and president of strategic national security consultants MIND Israel.
What has happened here over the past 24 hours? Give us a brief summary.
Yadlin: "The last 24 hours have demonstrated the willingness of the State of Israel to 'go all out' and use force even at the cost of great risks. The two targeted assassinations attributed to us were carried out in two main capital cities of the Iranian axis, and both figures had longstanding accounts both with Israel and with the US. In Beirut, Hezbollah's chief of staff Fuad Shukr, also known as Hajj Mohsin, was eliminated in an airstrike. A few hours later, the head of the political wing of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, was eliminated in Tehran. The 'Munich promise' of the heads of the security forces from the start of the war is on its way to being realized, with the 'top six' of the Hamas leadership being eliminated one by one. The last ones left standing are Yahya Sinwar and Khaled Mashal."
"A severe blow to Hezbollah"
To what extent do these killings hit Hamas and Hezbollah?
Fuad Shukr, one of the men closest to Hassan Nasrallah, was in charge of building Hezbollah's military power and strategic and technological systems, as well as coordinating ties with Iran. His elimination is a severe blow to Hezbollah and sends a clear message about the long reach and the intelligence and operational capabilities of the State of Israel.
"The Israeli attack was forced by reality due the horrific massacre of the 12 children in Majdal Shams last Saturday, which crossed a red line for Israel. The nature of the attack was designed to strike a balance, so that on the one hand it would be an appropriate response and exact a personal price on those responsible for it, and on the other hand it would not lead to a wider war at a time that is less convenient for Israel."
"Regarding Hamas," Yadlin continues, "After the elimination of Saleh al-Arouri and Mohammed Deif, the killing of Haniyeh represents a substantial and symbolic blow to a leading figure in Hamas’s foreign relations and the connecting link to the Shiite axis and Iran. Hamas's ability to carry out a significant response to the assassination is limited due to the erosion of its capabilities. Sinwar, who remains almost alone in the leadership, is besieged in Gaza with restricted access to the outside world and will be hoping with all his heart to see as a response to the attack from the long-awaited unification of his allies, in other words, a coordinated response against Israel by the (Iranian) axis."
What scenarios are there for retaliation from Hezbollah and Hamas?
"Regarding Hezbollah, it is reasonable to assume that Hassan Nasrallah, who operates through symmetry, will try to respond according to the symmetry that Israel created through a longer range rocket barrage, or at military targets in central Israeli cities. Civilians were also killed in Israel's attack, so the possibility that the response will not only aim at military goals cannot be excluded. Tactically, Israel should be prepared intelligence-wise and operationally for Hezbollah's response, and be prepared to stop its retaliatory attacks on Israel, and respond according to the intensity of the damage caused.
"However, we will be required to look at the entire arena of war, with the understanding that we are facing the united forces of a coordinated Iranian axis, and the retaliation to the assassinations is expected to be by the axis. Beirut and Tehran are currently working on their responses, and from past experience, they will not necessarily occur in the immediate term. Therefore, one should not be embarrassed by the important tactical successes achieved last night, and it is necessary to prepare militarily and nationally for a scenario of broad escalation and possibly even war."
"From a strategic point of view," adds Yadlin. "Israel needs to leverage the pressure that Hamas is under in order to push as hard as possible for a deal for the hostages. It is possible that the actions last night will delay the deal in the immediate term and will cause a certain withdrawal, but the elimination of Deif, the raids by the IDF in the centers of the Gaza Strip and the operation in Rafah continue to put pressure on Sinwar, And the fact that he and Mashal know that they are next in line, may spur them to close the deal. The deal will make it possible to end the fighting in Gaza and turn to Israel's great challenges from the east and north, and to enter into a possible broader war in a planned manner and in the method and timing Israel chooses, and not as a result of an unplanned worsening of the situation."
To what extent is the home front prepared for what will happen?
"On the assumption that Hezbollah and Hamas’s retaliation will be limited, the Israeli home front knows how to take it. The response to an attack on the home front is made up of five layers: deterrence - the Iranians and Hezbollah will have to think about what Israel will do in response to their response; the ability to intercept missiles and rockets; active protection; sufficient warning to the population; and entering protected spaces for physical protection. The defense will not be hermetic, but it will provide a good response."
Published by Globes, Israel business news - en.globes.co.il - on July 31, 2024.
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