Last weekend, nearly 100,000 protesters gathered in The Hague, in one of the largest demonstrations the Dutch capital has seen in decades. Most of them wore red, to mark the new "red line" that the Dutch government declared about two weeks ago on Israel's war in Gaza. Dutch minister of foreign affairs Caspar Veldkamp announced for the first time that the association agreement between Israel and the EU should be discussed - a radical step previously demanded only by a handful of pro-Palestinian countries - if Israel did not lift the "humanitarian aid blockade" on Gaza. Later that evening, prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu backed down and announced the lifting of the blockade on humanitarian aid and food for Gaza. "We have approached the red line," he said.
The similar rhetoric is not accidental. According to reports from the Israeli cabinet, European pressure combined with US demands played a role in arguments on the need for Israel to change course and start allowing food and humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip. Whatever the full reasons, the current move marks the first time that the EU has "attacked" Israel since October 7, taking advantage of its position as is its largest trading partner to demand diplomatic steps.
Behind this move is the fact that attitudes towards Israel have changed in European capitals over the past month. Israeli declarations of a long-term occupation of the entire Strip, extreme statements by ministers about "annihilation" and transfer, the hunger afflicting Gazans, and the ongoing bombings, have caused countries that previously blocked initiatives against Israel in the EU to change direction.
The Netherlands may have led the initiative, but it was soon joined by Sweden, Finland, Portugal, and Belgium, among others. These governments, which have demonstrated support for Israel, have been under relentless public pressure for more than a year to "do something" for the Palestinians. The last few days mark the collapse of the remnants of support for the Israeli government in most parts of Europe.
Governments have so far defended Israel against a hostile public
For those who mistakenly believed, following the results of the Eurovision song contest vote, that the European public is on Israel's side, while governments are against it, the reality is the complete opposite. After 18 months of war, the European public is much more anti-Israel than most of the governments that represent it. Now they are aligning with the public and yielding to internal pressure.
42% of Germans believe Israel is doing to the Palestinians what the Nazis did to the Jews (according to a survey by the Bertelsmann Foundation). 50% of Spaniards demand that Madrid "do more to restrain Israel". 56% of Swedes see Israel in a negative light. 60% of Italians believe that the Israeli attack on Gaza is "unjustified" (data according to YouGov surveys). If anything, governments have so far defended Israel against a hostile public. Now this defense has disappeared.
Denmark, one of the last countries opposing an Israel arms embargo, and which continues to supply parts for F-35 fighter jets, while other countries have stopped doing so, and which is fighting demands to boycott Israel in the courts, yesterday issued a statement for the first time demanding that Israel immediately allow humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip.
Germany, Israel's great friend and the country trying to use its influence to moderate the EU's unified position on Israel, also clearly demands this and condemns Israel's military operation.
Following the threats to change the EU's policy, France, the UK and Canada have also begun an offensive of their own. France is convening a conference on the Palestinian issue in New York next month, in cooperation with Saudi Arabia, and plans to declare recognition of a Palestinian state. It is recruiting partners for this.
For the first time, France, the UK and Canada have demanded not only the flow of food and humanitarian aid to Gaza, but also a "halt to military operations" in the Gaza Strip. They have threatened Israel with "concrete steps" on this issue. When the French Foreign Minister was asked what these steps were, he pointed to the Dutch initiative to discuss the EU association agreement.
"Israel is a rogue state"
Make no mistake - the latest European criticism of Israel, the harsh language, the threats and the demands are not only the result of local public opinion. They also receive tacit support from Washington. Europe is anxious about its relations with the US, which protects it within the framework of NATO. If the White House spokesperson had made it clear that President Donald Trump takes the European threats against Israel seriously, they would have stopped immediately. The Europeans feel that the administration in Washington is also critical of Israel's current policy. Encouraged by this, they are trying to exploit their power.
The economic consequences could be fatal for Israel. Beyond the diplomatic earthquake that would be created if the EU foreign ministers did decide to discuss whether Israel is still a democracy committed to human rights, as a growing number of countries are demanding, this would likely send the question to a legal review. In this sense, governments would lose control of the next steps, and the matter would be left to the decision of lawyers - not the most sympathetic arena for Israel in the current state of affairs.
In this context, the horses would be out of the stable the moment this is decided, regardless of the consequences of the legal review. No matter that the suspension of the association agreement requires unanimous consent, which is unlikely as long as Israel has friends like Germany, Austria and Hungary. This agreement is the basis for trade relations worth €47 billion annually, the basis for the Open Skies agreement, for student exchanges under the Erasmus program, for scientific cooperation under the Horizon program. For all the relations between Israel and the EU. Even if the suspension is torpedoed, the message that will be created from the point of view of Article 2 will be - "Israel is a rogue state". What is a European company supposed to think when it is considering whether to open a factory in Israel, or to cooperate with an Israeli company, when it has to fear a complete collapse of relations?
There are a variety of other steps that the EU could take. It could expand sanctions on violent settlers and settler organizations, and it could impose personal sanctions on "extremist ministers" as Sweden demands. It could even start promoting restrictions on products coming from the settlements. It could also bury the legal discussions as it knows how to do, with Israeli pressure and the help of friendly countries on the continent. But the feeling is that something has changed in Europe, and that the war in Gaza has lost whatever support it had left.
"We will not just stand by," European leaders have promised, and now it remains to be seen how they intend to fulfill their promises, and what price Israel will have to pay.
Published by Globes, Israel business news - en.globes.co.il - on May 20, 2025.
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