Assad is being attacked on all fronts. All the opposition groups have the same goal: to topple his regime. The UN reported this week that the number of people killed in the Syrian uprising has reached 5,000. For the first time, we are hearing about armed combat between rebels and the army. The opposition has declared a general strike, with no time limit, in an effort to harm the Syrian economy that is already on the brink of insolvency. Every day thousands go out to protest, even though trigger happy military forces are waiting on the other side of the wall. Even government appointed clerics in the mosques are no longer afraid to preach heresy against the regime.
A domestic and international siege has been imposed on Damascus. Turkey, which until yesterday was Assad's friend, hinted about the possibility that it will act against it militarily. But as is the way of hot-blooded Middle Easterners, the Turks have since cooled down and have settled for giving scathing stings and turning a cold shoulder. Turkey left the picture, and France entered it. Its foreign minister, Alain Juppe, blamed Syrian intelligence this week for instigating a series of attacks on French forces in southern Lebanon. The last time an Arab leader angered French President Nicolas Sarkozy, it turned into a military operation that ended with a barbaric lynching. It's a shame that we can no longer ask Muammar Gaddafi his opinion.
A choir is standing outside Assad's window and demanding, in a unified voice, that he pack his things and leave. Most of the choir members, locally and overseas, have emotional motives. They loathe what Assad represents and want him to disappear from the face of the earth. Amidst their desire, they are forgetting the list of advantages that the Syrian regime offers. Precisely in this Middle-Eastern world that is becoming more and more fundamentalist in front of our eyes, a secular regime is quite valuable. The stability that it offered the Syrian people is no longer a given. It is enough to look at the Egyptians. The masses protesting at Tahrir Square do not miss Mubarak, but they yearn for the days when citizens enjoyed personal safety, and economic forecasts were not so bleak.
In the manner of despotic regimes, the Syrian regime did not acquaint its people with democratic values. The Syrian masses have no firsthand knowledge of a multi-party system of government, or of active and open discourse. For them, there has never been a voice that was stronger than the regime's. Bribes and favoritism are the norm in day to day affairs. Only from foreigners have they learned about opposition, differing opinions, and government criticism.
The Ba'ath regime's crimes are Assad's current line of defense. After he is gone, there will be no one to inherit authority in an orderly fashion and who knows how to rule. Syria will be left in a state of chaos. Look what is happening in Libya, which didn't even have a parliament during Gaddafi's rule. Its fate is currently in the hands of a provisional council that is dependent on western gentlemen wearing ties along with the savage fighters who rid this world of Gaddafi, many of whom are Islamic Jihad members. Those who now long for the fall of Assad, are actually calling for the birth of a focus of instability in the heart of the Arab world. This is the march of folly, full of vindictive rage and no realpolitik. As we saw with Gaddafi and with Saddam, threats are not an effective means to force a leader who is committed to his people to leave. He will fight to the death, and will leave behind him a wounded and dangerous society.
The weakness of Assad's regime is a golden opportunity to rebuild it, in a way that would meet the needs to develop and build a democracy for the Syrian people. After all, if his regime falls, a new Syria will be built on its ruins, in a rehabilitative process whose end is impossible to know. It would be better to harness the Ba'ath regime's power before this happens, instead of getting rid of it and then trying to build it again from ruins.
The solution is in the hands of the international community. When he ascended the throne, the Syrian president reached out to the west, especially the US. He needs this support now more than ever. On the basis of Syrian President Bashar Assad's need for help, the West may and should convince him to be ready for dramatic change. Firstly, powerful countries must cease their idle threats aimed at Damascus, and invest in sincere diplomatic efforts to find a solution to the crisis. This is a long and complicated process that requires a united front. Assad needs to understand clearly, that if he does not make serious changes, his path will lead to ruin. And the West needs to know that revolutions are not carried out through humiliation and ranting.
A deal was reached in Yemen just a few weeks ago that enabled Yemenite President Ali Abdallah Saleh to resign. Saudi tribal elders were the ones who concocted the deal. Although the basic conditions in Yemen are different than those in Syria, we can learn something from the way a leader was convinced to give up his principles after ruling for thirty years. The name of the game is respect.
The writer is the “IDF Radio" (Galei Zahal) correspondent for Arab Affairs.
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on December 14, 2011
© Copyright of Globes Publisher Itonut (1983) Ltd. 2011