How many Israelis have left Israel in the past year? A "Globes" enquiry at all the agencies that monitor the figures (The Israel Tax Authority, the Population and Immigration Authority, the National Insurance Institute, and the Central Bureau of Statistics) revealed that none of them really knows the answer. What’s more, it appears that even when it comes to basic statistics on how many people enter Israel and depart from the country there are large gaps between the Population and Immigration Authority, which gathers the data, and the Central Bureau of Statistics, which receives the data from it down the line.
The simplest way of understanding how many people have left the country is to look at the statistics for arrivals and departures of Israelis. If, within a given period, someone has departed from Israel and not returned, it is very likely that they have left for good, or at least for a long time. So a simple comparison of departures and arrivals of Israelis ought to lead to conclusions. Even on these numbers, however, there are discrepancies between the Population and Immigration Authority and the Central Bureau of Statistics.
Looking at the Population and Immigration Authority figures, which are only partially made public (the Authority referred "Globes" to the possibility of filing a freedom of information request), and those of the Central Bureau of Statistics for July-October 2023, there is a huge gap between the two sets. According to the Central Bureau of Statistics, arrivals exceeded departures by about 90,000, whereas according to the Population and Immigration Authority the trend is the reverse, with departures exceeding arrivals by 554. Since the beginning of 2024, however, the gaps between the two agencies have been much smaller, amounting to just a few thousand.
Methodological problems
Whence the gap? That remains a mystery, especially when the source data for both agencies are the same. Every individual who passes through border control, such as at Ben Gurion Airport, whether on the way in of on the way out, is recorded by the Population and Immigration Authority, which forwards the data to the Central Bureau of Statistics. Even a gap of a few thousand between the two agencies is therefore strange. The Population and Immigration Authority insists that it is the most reliable and accurate source for the figures, while the Central Bureau of Statistics claims the opposite. "Globes" has also learned that the Central Bureau of Statistics has approached the Population and Immigration Authority with a view to reconciling the figures, so far without a response.
Departures from Israel by Israelis do not necessarily mean that they are leaving the country. Within the numbers are Israelis going abroad on vacation, and short-term relocations. In fact, the definition of leaving the country is fairly flexible. The Central Bureau of Statistics recognizes this, and only recently changed its method of determining whether someone has left.
Up to now, a stay abroad of 365 consecutive days was enough for a person to be considered as having left Israel. A study by the Central Bureau of Statistics found, however, that this count was not reliable, since sometimes it was a case of a visit to a person’s native country, and there were other circumstances that might necessitate a long stay overseas, while on the other hand someone who has left the country for good might still return to visit family within a 365-day period. And so, in an attempt to adopt standards accepted around the world, the Central Bureau of Statistics announced a few months ago that it was switching "from the consecutiveness approach to an approach that allows for short visits," in its words.
Dr. Ahmad Hleihel, director of the Demography Sector at the Central Bureau of Statistics, said last February that the methodological change had raised the figure for the number of Israelis who had left the country at the time of the 2022 census (in comparison with the original census figures) to some 105,000, 1.1% of the population. According to the Central Bureau of Statistics, another 60,00 Israelis left in 2023, which compares with an average of 40,000 over the decade till then, while 47,000 new immigrants arrived that year. "The difference is large," Dr. Hleihel stressed. "Within a year and seven months, the number of Israelis was about 150,000 lower than it would have been under the old calculation method."
Difficult to measure
The National Insurance Institute and the Israel Tax Authority are also charged with monitoring the number of people who leave Israel, from the point of view of ending residency. The National Insurance Institute has not yet released figures on ending of residency in the past year, but it said that these were not the same as the figures for people leaving the country, and that sometimes it was a practical question to do with taxation only. "This is an event related to National Insurance rights," it said. "A person whose center of life is not in Israel may choose to maintain his or her residency status for health insurance purposes, for example. Or the other way around: if someone departs the country even if only for studies, they can end their residency status." The Israel Tax Authority chose not to respond to our enquiries, but it too deals with legal questions concerning the center of a person’s life for the purposes of tax collection.
Emigration is hard to measure, and other countries too face challenges in this respect. One reason is that someone who is no longer in his or her country of origin cannot respond to surveys in that country. A decade ago, the United States Census Bureau published a document reviewing various methods of examining emigration, and admitted that emigration was one of the most difficult components of population change to estimate.
Responses
The Central Bureau of Statistics stated in response: "The Central Bureau of Statistics routinely publishes data on emigration from Israel (Israelis overseas) that include the number of residents who have departed from Israel for a year or more consecutively overseas. The data are based on the recording of movements of Israelis across the borders. Recognizing the importance of the data to the public, the Central Bureau of Statistics is currently examining the information on Israelis spending time overseas since October 7 for an extended period (even though a year has not yet passed since the war began).
"Processing of the data is complicated, and the Bureau will publish them as soon as possible. It is important to note that the Central Bureau of Statistics publishes official statistics, and does not comment on data published by other agencies. At the same time, it should be pointed out that discrepancies in figures from different agencies may arise from various causes, such as differences in definitions, the period concerned, or when the data were collected."
The National Insurance Institute stated: "We examine residency (and not citizenship) for those whose center of life is in Israel for the purposes of awarding rights and ensuring that welfare payments and grants are given to residents and not to those who have moved their center of life overseas."
The Population and Immigration Authority stated: "The Authority’s data form a basis for various agencies and for a range of processing. The data are on those passing through border control only. A simple and clear figure. Any other interpretation is not our responsibility."
The Israel Tax Authority declined to respond.
Published by Globes, Israel business news - en.globes.co.il - on July 8, 2024.
© Copyright of Globes Publisher Itonut (1983) Ltd., 2024.